Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

*  Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for southern counties this
   afternoon.

*  Flood watch expanded to Anson county.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM Friday...

1) There is a risk of excessive rainfall across the
entire forecast area, primarily during the afternoon and early
evening.

2) There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the
entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the greatest
threat along and south of US-64.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... There is a risk of excessive rainfall across the
entire forecast area, primarily during the afternoon and early
evening.

The Weather Prediction Center has the entire forecast area
under a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. Locally,
a flood watch was issued overnight for much of the area, excluding
the Triad and areas northeast of the Triangle, going through
Saturday morning. A boundary is set up across southern counties,
having pushed slightly farther south than anticipated. From Sanford
and Erwin to the northeast, low clouds and northerly flow have kept
temperatures primarily in the 70s, while out in the Triad and
southern counties, more sun has allowed for temperatures to climb in
the 80s and lower 90s. While convective-allowing models have
performed poorly over the last day or two, there are still
indications that thunderstorms currently developing along the North
Carolina/South Carolina border will expand in coverage and push to
the north during the afternoon. With slow storm movement, deep
moisture, and "skinny CAPE", these storms will have the potential to
bring multiple inches of rain in a short period of time. In
particular, the 12Z HREF shows approximately a 50% potential for 3
inches of rain in 3 hours just to the south of the Triangle during
the late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely peak in
coverage before sunset, continue into the evening, then rapidly drop
off after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the
entire forecast area this afternoon and evening, with the greatest
threat along and south of US-64.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Triad and counties
along the VA/NC border in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk, with the
rest of the forecast area in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk. The
primary threat is damaging winds, although large hail cannot be
ruled out. As of 2pm, there is minimal MLCAPE and large amounts of
CIN along and to the north of US-64, while the greatest instability
is to the south of the boundary that was discussed in Key Message 1.
That is the primary reason that the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that
was issued around 1:30pm only included the southern half of the
forecast area and did not extend any farther to the north. Across
Cumberland and Sampson counties, the MLCAPE is as high as 3000 J/kg.
There is at least 30 kt of effective bulk shear across the forecast
area, which should help to eventually organize storms. The greatest
threat for severe thunderstorms should be over the next several
hours, and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is valid through 9pm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

TAF period: Confidence is lower than normal in the details of these
TAFs due to the uncertainty with thunderstorms and where they will
develop today; however, confidence is high that all terminals will
experience at least some rain this afternoon and have low ceilings
overnight.

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the North
Carolina/South Carolina border and will increase in coverage as they
move northeast. Have gone with prevailing showers at all sites,
continuing a TEMPO group during the most likely 4 hour window for
thunderstorms. Visibility reductions with the storms may be slightly
greater than normal considering heavy rain rates are expected today.
There is a bit of uncertainty as to how long the prevailing rain
will last into this evening, but IFR ceilings are likely to quickly
expand from INT/GSO south and east after dark, with all sites
expected to eventually develop LIFR ceilings. The ceilings should
lift to MVFR by late Saturday morning, with scattered showers
developing by that time at RDU/FAY/RWI.

Outlook: Precipitation will primarily be at RDU/FAY/RWI Saturday
afternoon, although it cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO. Widespread
restrictions are not currently forecast for any sites Saturday
night, although if precipitation is heavy enough, there could be
local restrictions. Dry VFR conditions are expected Sunday through
Tuesday night before a chance of thunderstorms returns to all
terminals Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ023>025-039>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

DISCUSSION...Green
AVIATION...Green

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1144 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

NCZ023>025-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-221545-
Alamance-Orange-Durham-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
1144 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Flood Watch.

There is also a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms
through this evening. The main threat will be damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-021-022-026>028-038-221545-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Davidson-
1144 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms into this evening.
The main threat is from damaging wind.

Locally heavy rain is also possible, with localized minor flooding
of urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
536 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

NCZ022>024-039-040-212230-
Guilford NC-Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-Orange NC-
536 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALAMANCE...ORANGE...EASTERN
RANDOLPH...SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD AND CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM
EDT...

At 536 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Burlington to 12 miles
east of Randleman to near Seagrove. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Pittsboro, Siler City, North
Carolina Zoo, Carrboro, Mebane, Goldston, and Seagrove.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 85 between Mile Markers 163 and 167.
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 140 and 162, and between Mile
Markers 259 and 264.
 Interstate 73 between Mile Markers 60 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 7927 3556 7929 3552 7934 3551 7983
      3587 7968 3623 7940 3624 7896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 271DEG 15KT 3617 7937 3587 7959 3557 7972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CA

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
557 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Albemarle         35.34N 80.20W
08/21/2026                   Stanly             NC   911 Call Center

            Strong winds caused the partial collapse of
            shelter over gas pumps. Time estimated.

&&

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
559 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Plyler              35.34N 80.28W
08/21/2026                   Stanly             NC   911 Call Center

            A tree was blown down and blocking both
            lanes of traffic along Fink Rd. Time
            estimated.

&&

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
601 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 W Morven              34.86N 80.09W
08/21/2026                   Anson              NC   911 Call Center

            A tree was blown down into the roadway near
            the intersection of Gulledge Rd and NC 742
            S. Time estimated.

&&

10

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