Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Updated aviation discussion.

* Heat advisory has expired.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 243 PM Tuesday...

1) Level 1 risk (marginal risk) for severe thunderstorms today along
with a level 1 risk for flash flooding (marginal ERO) today and
Wednesday - highest risk for flooding north and east of Raleigh.

A moist and unstable air mass will remain in place across central
North Carolina through Wednesday as weak mid-level flow and a
backdoor cold front sagging south from Virginia provide a favorable
environment for scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Most
deterministic and convection-allowing guidance suggests the greatest
convective coverage will occur each afternoon and evening, with
outflow boundaries being the focus this afternoon and evening and
the backdoor front and any residual outflow boundaries serving as
primary foci for storm development on Wednesday. While widespread
organized severe weather is not expected, moderate instability will
support a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger
multicells. The severe weather risk should remain highest where
storms can interact with the southward-moving boundary, especially
across northern half of the forecast area.

The flash flood threat may ultimately become the greater concern.
Deep tropical moisture, slow storm motions, and the potential for
repeated development along the frontal zone could produce localized
heavy rainfall totals. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook continues
to highlight the greatest concern across the northern and
northeastern portions of central North Carolina both today and
Wednesday, where the proximity of the backdoor front may favor more
persistent or training convection. Localized flash flooding will be
possible, particularly in urban areas and other flood-prone
locations where multiple rounds of heavy rainfall occur.

2) Level 3 heat risk south and east of the Triad through
Saturday.

Each day through the end of the work week is expected to trend a
degree or two hotter as afternoon temperatures climb into the lower
and middle 90s. Combined with continued high humidity, heat indices
will likely reach or exceed 100 degrees across much of central North
Carolina during this time. The experimental HeatRisk forecast shows
major (Level 3 of 4) continuing or perhaps expanding a bit each day
south and east of the Triad through Saturday. This level of heat can
be dangerous for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration,
especially those spending extended periods outdoors. A weak front
approaching late in the weekend should bring at least modest relief
beginning Sunday, with temperatures easing back closer to seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Tuesday...

Convection continues to be a threat into the late evening hours
across portions of the terminals. However, the main threat based on
satellite and radar trends is at RDU and secondarily at RWI. A
strong storm will impact RDU in the beginning part of the TAF
period. While storms are not currently near RWI, the expected
environment and upstream convection would favor the development of
storms in the 01-04z time period. At GSO, INT, and FAY, these
terminals have seen some subsidence in the wake of earlier
convection. Thus, while we cannot rule out some stray storm until
04z, confidence was too low to include any mention at this time
given a lack of appreciable signals. Storms may develop upstream of
FAY late tonight but again confidence is too low at this time. A
backdoor front will build in from the NE early Wed, favoring a
gradual ENE flow at the northern sites on Wednesday. The flow should
result in MVFR to perhaps brief IFR stratus at RDU and RWI Wed
morning, along with patchy low visibilities. Some brief restrictions
may also reach GSO/INT. Storms are expected to develop again Wed
afternoon and evening in the vicinity of and along the backdoor
front. For now, opted for PROB30 groups at all terminals in the
favored late afternoon and early evening time frame.

Outlook: A persistent summertime pattern will support generally VFR
conditions outside of daily afternoon and evening convection through
the end of the week. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible in
thunderstorms each day, with localized late night or early morning
fog or stratus following heavier rainfall. Outside of convection, no
widespread or prolonged aviation impacts are expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...np
AVIATION...AK/np

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