Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1259 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are expected each afternoon over the far
eastern plains.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected over the mountains
and San Luis Valley each afternoon through at least Wednesday.

- Some moisture may return to the mountains later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Another warm day across the region as high pressure dominates to our
south. Winds aloft will remain out of the west across the region,
though flow won't be particularly strong. Over the mountains, dry
surface conditions and downsloping flow will cause critical fire
weather conditions for several hours this afternoon. Red Flag
Warning is in effect 1pm-8pm for our western mountains and the San
Luis Valley.

Over the plains, highs will be noticeably cooler than yesterday,
hovering in the 80s to low-90s. Breezy southeast winds will advect
some moist air into the area, and with a shortwave trough passing
over later in the day, showers and thunderstorms are expected. There
will be ample instability in the area, with 500-800 J/kg of CAPE or
so around the Palmer, where storms are likely to initiate first in
the early afternoon. CAPE increases to the southeast along with
moisture content, so as storms move in that direction they are
expected to intensify. Shear will pick up as the shortwave moves
overhead as well, leading to a window for strong to severe storms
through most of the afternoon and into early evening. Main impact
concerns will be large hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado or
two.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The evolution of the long-term forecast remains fairly consistent
with previous data. High pressure continues hovering to our south,
leaving breezy west winds aloft over the region. For the mountains,
this means repeated critical fire weather conditions each afternoon,
mainly over our western mountains and the San Luis Valley, thanks to
downsloping. Temperatures will remain warm, increasing again later
in the week.

For the plains, surface winds will turn east-southeast in the
afternoons, and several passing shortwave disturbances will allow
for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Given the amount of
moisture in place, storms closer to the CO/KS border will be strong
to severe, with hail and wind as the main threats but with a few
isolated tornadoes possible as well.

Our next pattern shift is expected to arrive around Thursday-Friday.
An upper trough is expected to start amplifying over the Pacific
Northwest, and as it moves our area will see better chances for more
widespread precipitation. However, if the system moves north of us,
we may just get stronger winds and, as a result, more widespread
fire weather concerns instead. Will have to wait and see how the
data handles things in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
through the next 24 hours. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to move across the eastern plains in the
afternoon. Breezy southeast winds, gusting 20-25 knots, will be
followed by passing storms. Have included as PROB30s for now given
the isolated to scattered coverage expected. Outflow winds could hit
40 knots, accompanied by brief periods of rain and lightning before
storms move on and winds weaken near the end of the period.

Meanwhile, KALS will remain dry, with gusty west-southwest flow
around 20 knots during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected each afternoon through
the next several days, mainly over the mountains and the San Luis
Valley. Warm temperatures will combine with dry air and downsloping,
breezy west winds to create conditions supportive of dangerous fire
behavior. There will be a brief lull in critical conditions around
the end of the week, as winds aloft weaken and a bit more moisture
moves in, but depending on how the wind pattern shifts this weekend
more widespread critical conditions will be possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this
evening for COZ220-223-224.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ220-223-224.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
FIRE WEATHER...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
101 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-230715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
101 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this
afternoon into this evening. Storms will move off of the Palmer and
surrounding areas, moving southeast and intensifying over time. Some
strong to severe storms are expected. Given the supportive
environment, hail up to the size of ping pong balls and winds to 65
mph will be the main threats, though a tornado or two can't be ruled
out.

Meanwhile, critical fire weather conditions are expected throughout
the afternoon over the interior mountains and the San Luis Valley,
with dry surface conditions and breezy west winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Saturday

More strong to severe storms are expected to return each afternoon
over the eastern plains through Thursday. The area will continue
seeing plenty of low-level moisture, wind shear, and supportive lift
from some passing disturbances aloft. Main impacts will be large
hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

Meanwhile, critical fire weather conditions will return to the
interior mountains and San Luis Valley each afternoon, with low RH
and breezy west winds coupled with warm temperatures. This will
continue each day through Wednesday.

Thursday into Friday, we get a better chance at more widespread
precipitation, though the area appears to dry out again later this
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

COZ093-220600-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
1112 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT MDT...

At 1112 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Timpas, or 13 miles southwest of La Junta, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Otero
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10383 3795 10383 3796 10357 3790 10355
      3782 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 272DEG 16KT 3790 10378

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

COZ097>099-220630-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
1155 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS...
NORTHWESTERN BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM
MDT...

At 1155 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Two Buttes Reservoir, or 19 miles northwest of
Springfield, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 10292 3771 10293 3777 10256 3750 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 267DEG 11KT 3763 10284

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1215 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

COZ097-220645-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
1215 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BENT COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 AM MDT...

At 1215 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles south of John Martin Reservoir, or 25 miles southeast of North
La Junta, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Bent
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 10323 3794 10311 3786 10290 3769 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 302DEG 15KT 3783 10310

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1233 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

COZ093-094-097-099-220715-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
1233 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN OTERO...NORTHWESTERN
BACA...NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH
115 AM MDT...

At 1233 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Higbee, or 16 miles southeast of North La Junta, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 10347 3790 10336 3777 10296 3754 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 299DEG 20KT 3779 10334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1234 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

COZ093-094-097-099-220715-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
1234 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN OTERO...NORTHWESTERN
BACA...NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH
115 AM MDT...

At 1233 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Higbee, or 16 miles southeast of North La Junta, moving southeast at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 10347 3790 10336 3777 10296 3754 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 299DEG 20KT 3779 10334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
121 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

COZ094-099-220800-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
121 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BACA AND EAST
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM MDT...

At 120 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles northwest of Pritchett, or 30 miles west of Springfield, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Baca
and east central Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 10327 3764 10319 3764 10305 3759 10289
      3733 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 288DEG 12KT 3750 10316

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG