Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible from late this afternoon and
especially later this evening into the early Monday morning hours
over the plains.

- Unsettled weather from late Monday into late week, then drier
  and warmer for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 350 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 9 PM for
Kiowa and Prowers Counties. A supercell thunderstorm located
near Boyero will continue to drop southeast towards Kiowa and
Prowers counties this evening. Large hail 1.5 to 2 inches in
diameter, wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and an isolated tornado
threat will be possible with this storm. Elsewhere, the
forecast remains on track, with convection developing in the
9-11 PM time frame along the HWY 50 corridor. A couple could
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Main concern in the short term will be the likelihood of strong to
severe storms affecting the plains from late this afternoon through
early tomorrow morning. An isolated severe threat will occur mainly
over northern El Paso county and possibly Kiowa county late this
afternoon into early evening. A more substantial threat will develop
form mid evening into early tomorrow morning over the plains as a
strong boundary pushes across the plains assisted by a short wave at
mid levels. 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 40 knts of shear will be
sufficient for severe storm development as the upslope flow develops
after the front goes by. Large hail to 2", damaging winds of 60 mph
and and isolated tornado will be possible. There is also a low risk
of heavy rain developing over the Aspen Acres burn scar as the front
pushes into the mtns. There is some uncertainty if convection will
occur as the boundary hit the mtns/plains interface later this
evening.

Showers and storms will last into the overnight hours and locally
heavy rain will be possible over the far eastern plains during this
period. Showers will likely still be going after sunrise tomorrow
over the far eastern plains.

A brief reprieve in precip is expected tomorrow afternoon and early
evening, but another round of showers and storms develops tomorrow
evening over the mtns/plains interface extending over the eastern
plains. The storms are not expected to be strong tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

From Tuesday into Wednesday, another round of moist southwest flow
will develop over the region, and this will bring another round of
showers and storms to the region, with most of the heavier showers
falling south of US highway 50. The overall best chance of more
widespread heavier precip will occur wednesday afternoon with a
heavier band of precip over the far eastern plains Wed evening.

Thursday and Friday will remain unsettled over the region with
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the two day
period.

For the weekend, it will be drier and warmer, with only isolated
showers and storms expected. Temps for the weekend will be in the
mid 80s plains and 70s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.

KCOS and KPUB...expect showers and thunderstorms to fill in
behind a boundary mid this evening, with low CIGS and gusty
outflow winds the main concerns. Thunderstorm potential winds
down late tonight with low CIGS at both terminals near 2 kft
well into the morning hours. Improvements to CIGS are not
expected until Monday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-211700-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1100 AM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible
from late this afternoon across norther El Paso county.

A greater threat for strong to severe storms will occur this
evening into the early morning hours of Monday across nearly all
of the plains, including the cities along the I-25 corridor, as a
strong frontal boundary surges across the plains. All severe
weather threats will be possible, including hail up to 2 inches
in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. An isolated tornado could
also occur, mainly from La Junta eastward to the Kansas border.

There is also a risk for flash flooding over the Aspen Acres burn
scar this evening, although the risk is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The area will see a lull in activity during the day on Monday, with
daily showers and thunderstorms expected the rest of this week.
Precipitation will become more widespread thanks to returning
monsoon moisture, with the best focus over the Continental Divide
and the New Mexico border.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

34/34

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