Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected over the plains tonight and
  tomorrow, with some strong to severe possible east of I-25.

- Cooler Monday, then gradual warming trend through the
  remainder of the week as moisture returns to the higher
  terrain and southern border.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 443 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Updated to adjust pops across the Plains based on the latest
radar and model guidance through the evening. A couple of
stronger cells are possible, with large hail and strong outflow
winds. This activity will continue to track eastward through
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Currently...Upper low pressure system centered over southern ID is
producing deep southwest flow across the Four Corners, drawing up
moisture into Colorado. Some convection has fired over the higher
terrain as of 1 PM but nothing too strong just yet. Temps as of 1 PM
have warmed into the 70s to lower 80s for the plains, and mid 60s to
lower 70s for the high valleys.

Tonight...The upper low to the north will push east into WY tonight,
shifting the flow aloft to a more westerly direction which should
start drying out the higher elevations. At the same time, a cold
front is forecast to drop south across the Palmer Divide right in
the 4 PM to 6 PM time frame. SPC has painted a good portion of the
far eastern plains within a Slight chance for severe storms, keying
in on the 1500-1800 j/kg of CAPE and 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear.
However, this favorable area for strong to severe storms quickly
pushes south as the front moves in, so best chances for heftier
storms this eve will be 4-10 PM, with a focus closer to the KS
border. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds to 60 mph, 1 inch
hail and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Further west along
the I-25 Corridor, feel that convection will not be as structured
and pose a strong wind gust threat through 6 or 7 PM. Plan on
overnight low temps tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the high
valleys, and upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

Sunday...Another active day expected as the low to the north
continues pushing east, reaching Nebraska and South Dakota by the
afternoon. A couple of things to keep in mind - first, this is a
post-frontal day with a healthy amount of llvl moisture to work with
across the eastern plains. Model CAPE is ranging from 1500-2000 j/kg
across the eastern plains by midday. Second, as the northern low
continues moving east, it will force another cold front south that
will provide an increasing amount of bulk shear through the
afternoon, with some models showing 45-55 kts right along the Palmer
Divide. Given this combination, SPC has moved the Slight chance for
severe storms down into much of the eastern plains. Convection will
likely initiate over Monument Hill and along the Palmer Divide
around 1 PM, then gradually spread in areal coverage and intensity
through the mid to late afternoon, with activity lingering over the
far eastern plains late into the night. As for temps. look for highs
in the 70s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the
plains. Overnight lows will cool into the mid 30s to lower 40s for
the high valleys, and mid 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Monday and Tuesday...With the northern low out of the region,
temporary ridging develops across the Four Corners region as another
Pacific low moves onshore across southern CA and southern NV. Both
Mon and Tue are the coolest days out of the extended period, with
high temps failing to hit 80F. Increasing southwest flow aloft will
mean a gradual return and moisture to the mts by Tue, but for Mon
dry conditions will persist for the higher terrain, while the
eastern plains will see some late afternoon and evening convection.

Wednesday through Friday...A lot of variability with the extended
solutions, though long range models do seem to agree that the
Pacific low ejects to the northeast across the Great Basin on Wed,
boosting temps slightly due to the increased southwest flow as well
as increasing precip chances for the mts and southern border. Beyond
that, NBM indicates stabilizing temps right around seasonal normals,
and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms, more heavily
weighted towards the mts and the southern border.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Breezy
southwest winds will subside this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. Southwest winds will increase on Sunday
afternoon, with gusts near 25 kts possible.

KCOS...a couple of thunderstorms will be possible near the
terminal this evening, with gusty outflow winds and lightning
the main threats. At this time, it looks like a majority of the
thunderstorm activity will remain north of the terminal.
Clearing is forecast overnight, and winds will become
southeasterly. Winds are forecast to increase out of the east
with gusts in excess of 20 kts possible Sunday afternoon.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at the terminal.
Removed the PROB30 for TS this evening, as activity looks to
remain well north of the terminal. Easterly winds will increase
on Sunday afternoon, with gusts in excess of 20 kts forecast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-201300-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1109 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and into tonight. Showers will first form over the higher
terrain, quickly pushing east in the afternoon and intensifying.
Some thunderstorms over the eastern plains may become strong to
severe, with the greatest chance for severe weather north of Highway
50. Stronger storms today will be capable of producing outflow winds
to 60 mph, heavy rainfall, and hail up to 1 inch in diameter.
Activity will then shift east later tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Sunday,
over most of the eastern plains but most likely north of Highway 50.
The best chance for severe storms will be along an incoming cold
front, hitting the Palmer Divide during the afternoon and moving
south across the eastern plains into the overnight hours.

Showers and storms are expected to continue each day into next week
as well, though the mountains will remain largely dry through
Monday. More widespread moisture will return to the entire region
starting on Tuesday, along with cooler temperatures, that will last
through the rest of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ097-098-200000-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
536 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 536 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Two Buttes Reservoir, or 22 miles south of Lamar,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Prowers and southeastern Bent Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3765 10274 3786 10277 3801 10240 3766 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 256DEG 34KT 3776 10268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
542 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 NNW Woodland Park     39.11N 105.14W
09/19/2026  M59 MPH          Teller             CO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station HACC2 Manchester.

&&

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
543 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ098-099-200015-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
543 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 543 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Two Buttes, or 14 miles northeast of Springfield, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 10247 3757 10253 3768 10218 3743 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 249DEG 24KT 3753 10239

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ099-200045-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
549 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM MDT...

At 549 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Campo, or 19 miles south of Springfield, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Campo and Stonington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 10260 3727 10265 3742 10204 3707 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 250DEG 30KT 3714 10249

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
609 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ098-099-200030-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
609 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 609 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles northeast of Two Buttes to 12 miles
northwest of Manter to near The Saunders Elevator. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Prowers and northeastern Baca Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 10219 3754 10221 3776 10242 3788 10204
      3742 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 261DEG 29KT 3777 10224 3763 10207 3753 10202

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
621 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

COZ084-085-200045-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
621 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM MDT...

At 621 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yoder, or 30 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern El
Paso County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 10406 3884 10430 3891 10438 3913 10411
      3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 238DEG 29KT 3890 10425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam