Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storms will continue into this evening. Flash flooding
concerns continue over the Aspen Acres.

- Strong to severe storms possible over the plains into this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue on Thursday, with warmer and
drier conditions Fri/Sat.

- Moisture looks to increase late this weekend and into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Another round of afternoon showers and storms will move through the
area this afternoon and into this evening. Convection will continue
forming over and near the higher terrain, pushing east-southeast.

Latest observations and analysis show a window of high instability
(1500+ J/kg of CAPE) over the eastern plains, and though there is
some capping present, diurnal heating and some lift from a passing
disturbance aloft should be enough to break through. The main impact
concerns through this evening will largely be heavy rainfall and
subsequent flash flooding over the burn scars. Further east, storms
will increase in both strength and coverage as they encounter more
moisture and better shear, bringing on the threat for large hail and
gusty outflow winds as well.

Lingering convection will move off into Kansas later tonight, and
barring any outflow interactions, we should dry out into early
Thursday morning.

Tomorrow will be, overall, pretty similar to today, if a few degrees
warmer. Models indicate a bit higher instability present over the
mountains, with less moisture and instability over the eastern
plains. Activity out east will be a bit more isolated in nature,
while another day of flash flood risks will be in play for our burn
scars. We may also see a strong to marginally severe storm around
the Pikes Peak Region, where the more moist air will be influenced
by the topography of the Palmer Divide thanks to northwest flow
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The upper ridge will amplify over the region on Friday and Saturday,
with the center of the high pressure settling just south of
Colorado. This will give us a brief period of warmer and slightly
drier conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid-high 90s out
east, with some portions of the eastern plains exceeding 100 degrees
on Saturday. The monsoon plume will be moved out of our immediate
area, but lingering moisture at the mid to low-levels, combined with
diurnal heating, will still allow for isolated to scattered
convection each afternoon over the mountains.

On Sunday, the ridge will shift east as an upper low moves onshore
from the Pacific Northwest, bringing a new surge of moisture into
our area. Daily showers/storms will increase in strength and
coverage over the mountains, with more storms moving over the
eastern plains as well. Cooler air will move in behind a cold front
sometime on Monday, with temperatures settling back around seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. Scattered showers and storms thunderstorms pushing
off the higher terrain and across the immediate adjacent plains
will keep chances of brief MVFR conditions and gusty outflow
winds at the terminals through 02Z. Skies partially clear
overnight with generally light diurnal wind regimes expected
through the rest of the taf period. With the available moisture
in place, there is a low chance of seeing MVFR/IFR cigs at COS
and PUB aft 10Z, however, too low of a chance to include in
the taf attm. Also, with more northerly flow across the region
tomorrow, convecton may be tied more to the higher terrain, and
will not mention storms in the tafs at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-271730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1120 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon, with activity again spreading across lower
elevations and the plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. The
main hazard from storms again today will be locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, with areas over and near the Aspen Acres burn
scar continuing to be susceptible to flooding and debris flows. A
few storms over the plains east of I-25 may become severe late in
the afternoon and into the evening, with winds over 60 mph and half
dollar sized hail possible. Many storms today and this evening may
also produce gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning and small hail

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon and evening through the period, with the greatest coverage
of storms on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will again be the main
hazard from storms each day, with a flash flood risk continuing for
the Aspen Acres burn scar, especially on Thursday. Storms will also
produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds to 55 mph
and small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ084-262145-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
314 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 314 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greenland, or 23 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gleneagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 10441 3904 10456 3902 10480 3913 10487
      3913 10447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 299DEG 12KT 3916 10473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
315 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ074-075-088-262145-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
315 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HUERFANO AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 315 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cuchara Pass, or 26 miles west of Trinidad, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Spanish Peaks, Boncarbo, and Cuchara Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 10511 3739 10491 3724 10465 3716 10471
      3711 10504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 317DEG 12KT 3731 10496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
352 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ074-088-262245-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
352 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 352 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stonewall, or 24 miles west of Trinidad, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Segundo, Raton Pass, and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 10508 3727 10490 3699 10435 3699 10498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 327DEG 21KT 3716 10494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ081-084-262245-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
420 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Palmer Lake, or 21 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monument, Air Force Academy, Palmer Lake, and Gleneagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 10483 3908 10502 3913 10503 3913 10479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 290DEG 17KT 3912 10498

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
516 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ095-096-262345-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
516 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM MDT...

At 515 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Eads, or 35 miles northwest of Lamar, moving south
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eads and Chivington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 10244 3834 10301 3855 10317 3861 10317
      3862 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 349DEG 18KT 3853 10291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
537 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ079-087-270000-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
537 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM MDT...

At 537 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Farisita, or 42 miles northwest of Trinidad,
moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Walsenburg and northeastern Spring Burn Scar north of Highway 160.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3760 10507 3778 10504 3774 10471 3748 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 290DEG 6KT 3767 10495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hodanish