Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1243 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storms will continue into this evening. Flash flooding
concerns continue over the Aspen Acres.

- Strong to severe storms possible over the plains into this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue on Thursday, with warmer and
drier conditions Fri/Sat.

- Moisture looks to increase late this weekend and into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Another round of afternoon showers and storms will move through the
area this afternoon and into this evening. Convection will continue
forming over and near the higher terrain, pushing east-southeast.

Latest observations and analysis show a window of high instability
(1500+ J/kg of CAPE) over the eastern plains, and though there is
some capping present, diurnal heating and some lift from a passing
disturbance aloft should be enough to break through. The main impact
concerns through this evening will largely be heavy rainfall and
subsequent flash flooding over the burn scars. Further east, storms
will increase in both strength and coverage as they encounter more
moisture and better shear, bringing on the threat for large hail and
gusty outflow winds as well.

Lingering convection will move off into Kansas later tonight, and
barring any outflow interactions, we should dry out into early
Thursday morning.

Tomorrow will be, overall, pretty similar to today, if a few degrees
warmer. Models indicate a bit higher instability present over the
mountains, with less moisture and instability over the eastern
plains. Activity out east will be a bit more isolated in nature,
while another day of flash flood risks will be in play for our burn
scars. We may also see a strong to marginally severe storm around
the Pikes Peak Region, where the more moist air will be influenced
by the topography of the Palmer Divide thanks to northwest flow
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The upper ridge will amplify over the region on Friday and Saturday,
with the center of the high pressure settling just south of
Colorado. This will give us a brief period of warmer and slightly
drier conditions. High temperatures will be in the mid-high 90s out
east, with some portions of the eastern plains exceeding 100 degrees
on Saturday. The monsoon plume will be moved out of our immediate
area, but lingering moisture at the mid to low-levels, combined with
diurnal heating, will still allow for isolated to scattered
convection each afternoon over the mountains.

On Sunday, the ridge will shift east as an upper low moves onshore
from the Pacific Northwest, bringing a new surge of moisture into
our area. Daily showers/storms will increase in strength and
coverage over the mountains, with more storms moving over the
eastern plains as well. Cooler air will move in behind a cold front
sometime on Monday, with temperatures settling back around seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR is mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will form over the mountains after midday,
passing by the terminals after 22Z. Given scattered coverage,
included as PROB30s for now, but will need to be mindful of outflow
at KCOS and KPUB later in the evening. Outflow winds from storms are
expected to exceed 30 knots, with any stronger storms approaching 45-
50 knots in more isolated gusts. After about 03Z tonight, convection
will move away from the terminals and VFR will persist with winds
near or below 10 knots into Thursday.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1120 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-271730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1120 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon, with activity again spreading across lower
elevations and the plains from mid-afternoon into the evening. The
main hazard from storms again today will be locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, with areas over and near the Aspen Acres burn
scar continuing to be susceptible to flooding and debris flows. A
few storms over the plains east of I-25 may become severe late in
the afternoon and into the evening, with winds over 60 mph and half
dollar sized hail possible. Many storms today and this evening may
also produce gusty winds of 50 to 60 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning and small hail

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon and evening through the period, with the greatest coverage
of storms on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall will again be the main
hazard from storms each day, with a flash flood risk continuing for
the Aspen Acres burn scar, especially on Thursday. Storms will also
produce frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds to 55 mph
and small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

10/10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
913 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     Rain             12 NE Two Buttes        37.69N 102.25W
08/26/2026  M0.90 Inch       Prowers            CO   Trained Spotter

            24 hour rain total.

&&

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
235 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ081-082-085-262100-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
235 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM
MDT...

At 234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manitou Springs, or 7 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Manitou Springs, Victor,
Stratmoor, Fort Carson, Security, and Security-Widefield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 10517 3888 10499 3881 10472 3874 10474
      3863 10492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 290DEG 13KT 3880 10495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ng

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ067-068-071-262115-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft CO-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft CO-
239 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CONEJOS COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM MDT...

At 238 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Capulin, or 28 miles northeast of Chama, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Conejos
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 10643 3734 10634 3725 10607 3714 10614
      3708 10627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 305DEG 13KT 3725 10634

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ076-077-081-083-262115-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
245 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FREMONT AND
SOUTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 244 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Guffey, or 36 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waugh Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3871 10523 3864 10525 3859 10542 3852 10572
      3868 10579 3870 10574 3870 10533 3874 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 318DEG 12KT 3872 10549

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

COZ074-075-087-088-262115-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
247 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL HUERFANO AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 247 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cuchara Pass, or 31 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving southeast at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Veta, Spanish Peaks, Cuchara, Cuchara Pass, and southeastern
Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Huerfano county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10515 3751 10499 3738 10473 3726 10484
      3719 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 306DEG 9KT 3738 10502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH