Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
607 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue this evening, some strong to
  severe. Strong winds, hail, and heavy rain/flash flooding on
  the table.

- Afternoon storms are expected again on Monday, mostly over the
  eastern mountains and Raton Mesa.

- A bit drier through the rest of the week, though some scattered
  storms will still be possible each afternoon starting Weds.

- Warmer temps return this week and into the weekend. Eastern
  plains may hit triple digits this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Strong to severe storms have already formed over the Pikes Peak
Region and near the Raton Mesa as of 2pm. Flash flooding is also
ongoing over the Aspen Acres burn scar. Activity is expected to
continue pushing east through the remainder of the evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect through 9pm this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

With the monsoon plume funneling right into our area, thunderstorm
activity is expected to move across our area through the rest of the
afternoon and into this evening. Strong to severe storms are still
anticipated, with current analysis showing 1000 J/kg of CAPE along I-
25, increasing to 2000+ further east. Additionally, the eastern half
of our CWA shows 30 knots or so of effective bulk shear. Dewpoints
remain in the 50s over most of these areas as well, close to 60 in
places.

Storms will continue to initiate over our eastern mountains, pushing
over the plains within the next few hours and intensifying. Main
storm hazards remain on track from previous forecasts, with outflow
winds 60-70 mph, hail up to 1.5 inches, heavy rain and flash
flooding. Flood Watch for Aspen Acres remains in effect thru 8pm.

Storms will move off to the east later tonight, with mild
temperatures and lingering low-level moisture setting things up for
tomorrow.

Monday...

The upper ridge will build back in over our area on Monday, kicking
the monsoon plume to our west and giving us a slightly drier day.
However, some lingering low-level moisture should coincide with a
weak passing shortwave aloft, allowing for some afternoon
thunderstorm formation, though noticeably less than today. The
majority of convection will form over our southeast mountains,
spreading close to the Raton Mesa and far southern plains later in
the day, while a few isolated to scattered storms will be possible
over the San Juans and the Pikes Peak Region. Storms along the
terrain will be on the weaker side, with outflow to 50 mph and hail
up to half an inch or so. If storms manage to persist long enough to
move onto the eastern plains, they will encounter moist,
southeasterly surface winds and better forcing thanks to the passing
shortwave. Some stronger to severe storms (60 mph winds, 1 inch
hail) will be possible late afternoon into early evening.
Additionally, any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
so flash flooding will still be a concern over burn scars, though
again coverage and confidence are both lower for Monday than today.
Finally, highs will be a few degrees warmer across the region, with
mid-80s to low-90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Long-range forecast remains on track, with the upper high expected
to build back in over the Four Corners Region. This will amplify the
upper ridge, leading to drier conditions across the area through
most of the week. After much drier conditions on Tuesday, lingering
low to mid-level moisture will allow for more scattered thunderstorm
activity each day. Storms will first form over the mountains, with a
passing front on Wednesday bringing precipitation back to the plains
as well. Meanwhile, high temps will increase across the board, with
high-80s over the valleys and high-90s over the eastern plains, with
a low but non-zero chance for some more triple digits heading into
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the
period. The exception will be due to any brief MVFR conditions
with showers and thunderstorms at KCOS and KPUB. Heavy rain and
outflow wind gusts to around 40 knots will remain a concern.
This activity will wane with sunset, with terminal impacts
expected to end by 05Z. Clouds and wind will decrease overnight.
Convection chances return to the area after 18Z Monday, though
coverage is expected to be more isolated. Currently, confidence
is highest at KCOS where a PROB30 group will persist.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

UPDATE...GARBEROGLIO
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...NWS Riverton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-171730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1121 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon
across the higher terrain, and spread east into the Plains during
the afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall and lightning, and as they move into the lower elevations,
a few could become strong to severe with hail to 1.5 inches in
diameter and wind gusts 60 to 70 mph. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for the Aspen Acres burn scar for this afternoon and evening.
Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop during the evening hours
along the Highway 50 corridor, but should remain sub severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is forecast
for Monday. Heavy rainfall, hail to half inch in diameter and wind
gusts to 50 mph may accompany stronger storms. Flash flooding could
be possible on areas burn scars if a storm moves over one.

Drier air and high pressure will return to the area beginning
Tuesday and prevail into next weekend. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will diminish to more isolated to scattered in nature, and
temperatures will warm. A cold front may lead to slightly more
thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, but overall, conditions will be
drier.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ085-086-162215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
338 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO AND NORTH
CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM MDT...

At 338 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hanover, or 24 miles north of Pueblo Airport, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hanover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 10452 3866 10451 3872 10438 3852 10424
      3850 10442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 285DEG 12KT 3864 10443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ081-082-084-085-162245-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
422 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pikes Peak, or 13 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, Air Force Academy, Manitou
Springs, Green Mountain Falls, Divide, Pikes Peak, Crystola, Chipita
Park, and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 10526 3888 10528 3897 10519 3898 10481
      3870 10495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 284DEG 20KT 3887 10507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
432 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Truckton          38.74N 104.14W
08/16/2026  M58 MPH          El Paso            CO   Public

            Personal weather station measured wind gust.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ081-082-084-085-162315-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
444 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM MDT...

At 444 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Manitou Springs, or near Colorado Springs, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Colorado Springs, Air Force Academy, Manitou Springs,
Green Mountain Falls, Divide, Pikes Peak, Crystola, Chipita Park,
Cascade, Stratmoor, and Fort Carson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 10529 3889 10530 3895 10523 3897 10473
      3874 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 274DEG 18KT 3887 10494

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Beulah              38.07N 104.96W
08/16/2026                   Pueblo             CO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Heavy water flow across roads with heavy
            debris and propane tanks.

0209 PM     Flash Flood      Beulah                  38.07N 104.99W
08/16/2026                   Pueblo             CO   Emergency Mngr

            Water Rescue Underway.

0306 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SW Ramah              39.09N 104.22W
08/16/2026  M62 MPH          El Paso            CO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station TT565 Ramah.

0312 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 N Yoder               38.91N 104.20W
08/16/2026  M58 MPH          El Paso            CO   Public

            Private weather station measured wind gust.

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ENE Truckton          38.74N 104.14W
08/16/2026  M58 MPH          El Paso            CO   Public

            Personal weather station measured wind gust.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
542 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ081-170015-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
542 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL TELLER COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 542 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Florissant, or 26 miles west of Colorado Springs. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Teller
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 10520 3879 10520 3882 10533 3890 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 273DEG 4KT 3886 10532

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe