River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
113 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier today and Tuesday with warming temperatures. A few
  thunderstorms are possible on today mainly along the Raton
  Mesa.

- A cold front arrives by Wednesday morning with a round of
  strong to possibly severe thunderstorms along with elevated
  flash flood potential.

- An upper high strengthens overhead for late in the week and
  through the weekend with daily thunderstorm chances across the
  higher terrain and adjacent Plains, and hot temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Currently...radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
spread across the Plains early this morning. Most are stretched
from a Cripple Creek to Kim line, and slowly tracking east. A
few stronger cells could produce small hail and very heavy
rainfall along with lightning. Most CAM guidance has this
activity slowly shifting eastward and dissipating by daybreak.
Temperatures are mild, with upper 50s to mid 60s across the
Plains. Elevated dewpoints should help keep temperatures from
falling by more than a degree or two through morning.

Today and tonight...the upper level high that has been sitting
over the southeast U.S. will build westward into Texas, and
expand northward over the next 24 hours. This will bring
slightly drier air to the region, and help limit shower and
thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. PWAT values
will fall to less than 1 inch, and CAPE values will only be
around 800 j/kg with higher values out near the Kansas border.
Flow remains southerly in the low levels, which will help keep
dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon. As the
upper level ridge builds northward, it should help suppress most
convection today. The exception looks like the southern Sangre
de Cristo Range, east along the Raton Mesa. CAM guidance
develops a cluster of thunderstorms over this area, and tracks
it east along the New Mexico border this afternoon and early
evening. Given the instability and moisture parameters, a couple
could become strong, with hail to 3/4 of an inch and 55 mph
winds along with heavy rainfall. Further north along the Eastern
Mountains, shower and thunderstorm activity looks very isolated.
At this time, did not issue a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen
Acres burn scar given the scarcity of expected thunderstorm
coverage. But given recent heavy rains and flooding issues, if
an isolated cell happens to move over the scar, flash flooding
could occur. Confidence at this time is less than 20 percent
that this would happen. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity
to shift south and east into New Mexico by early evening,
leaving southern Colorado dry through the overnight hours.

Temperatures will warm slightly this afternoon, with mid 80s to
near 90 degrees for the Plains, and 80s for the San Luis Valley.
Overnight lows will remain the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period, with NBM guidance starting to catch on to warmer
conditions by late in the week into the weekend.

Tuesday...upper level ridging continues ot build across southern
Colorado with warming temperatures and generally dry conditions
across the region. Temperatures will warm back through the 90s
with a few lower 100s possible near the Kansas border. PWAT
values continue to dry out, and will help limit shower and
thunderstorm activity. A couple of thunderstorms may be possible
during the afternoon and evening from the Central Mountains,
southeast into teh Palmer Divide region as a weak wave tracks
across the area.

Wednesday...a cold front arrives by Wednesday morning turning
low level flow easterly by mid to late morning. Moisture returns
as well with dewpoints reaching back into the upper 50s to
lower 60s across the Plains. Shear also increases, with 0-6km
shear values in excess of 30 kts by the afternoon. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon,
initially over the higher terrain, then spreading east into the
Plains. As storms move into the Plains, a few could become
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. In
addition, heavy rainfall will be possible, along with Flash
Flooding on area burn scars. Temperatures will be cooler, with
80s and lower 90s across the Plains.

Thursday through Sunday..models all in agreement with the upper
high strengthening over the Great Basin, shifting east across
Colorado late in the week and over the weekend. Multiple waves
embedded under the ridge will lift northward during this period,
with daily showers and thunderstorms possible. Most thunderstorm
activity will remain tied to the terrain, with a few slipping
east into the I-25 corridor during the evening before
dissipating. Extended NBM guidance is starting to catch up with
deterministic guidance on high temperatures Friday through
Sunday. Given the strength of the upper high, upper 90s to lower
100s are not out of the question, especially for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Rain showers and thunderstorms at the start of this TAF period are
expected to end early, with dry conditions prevailing through most
of the night and through tomorrow. With that said, there is a
possibility of isolated thunderstorms impacting either TAF site
again tomorrow afternoon, though confidence in coverage is less than
the past few days. Regardless though, brief periods of heavy rain,
gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be possible with any
thunderstorm that impacts the TAF sites. Otherwise, pockets of mid
to high level clouds will persist through tomorrow, with relatively
light winds, around and less than 10 knots, expected outside of any
storms.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds are
expected to remain relatively light, around and less than 10 knots
through this TAF period. Otherwise, pockets of mid to high level
clouds and dry conditions are anticipated. With that said, an
isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out tomorrow, though
confidence remains very low, less than 10%, on this. IF a
thunderstorm were to impact the TAF site, brief periods of heavy
rain, gusty outflow winds, and lightning will be possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
130 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-180730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
130 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, small hail and
lightning will continue early this morning across the Plains. This
activity should continue east and dissipate through daybreak.

The St. Charles River at Vineland and the Arkansas River at
Avondale are forecast to reach near action stage this morning with
rivers running near bankfull. Use extreme caution when near the
rivers.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for
this afternoon and evening from the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains, east along the Raton Mesa and New Mexico border. A
couple of these storms could become strong to severe with hail
near 3/4 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 55 mph. Heavy rain
will accompany thunderstorms. An isolated thunderstorm may be
possible this afternoon north of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Range, including the Aspen Acres burn scar. Confidence in a cell
hitting the burn scar is low (less than 20 percent), if one does
so, it could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday.
Storms will fire along the Eastern Mountains, and spread east
into the Plains by the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall,
large hail and gusty winds will accompany stronger storms. Flash
flooding may be possible on area burn scars and will need to be
monitored.

Monsoonal moisture returns to the area Thursday through Sunday
with near daily afternoon showers and thunderstorm over the
Mountains, spreading into the Plains. Temperatures will also be on
the rise, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

88/88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1039 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ088-094-170515-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1039 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 1115 PM MDT...

At 1038 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Model, or 30 miles east of Trinidad. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Las Animas
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 10402 3732 10410 3744 10392 3725 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 240DEG 3KT 3731 10398

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ084-170515-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
1045 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 1115 PM MDT...

At 1045 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ramah, or 29 miles southwest of Limon, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ramah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 10405 3894 10416 3900 10425 3913 10418
      3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 220DEG 15KT 3904 10415

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1053 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ086-170530-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
1053 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 1130 PM MDT...

At 1053 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pueblo West, or near Pueblo, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Pueblo West, Salt Creek, Blende, and Pueblo
Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10475 3836 10477 3844 10454 3821 10449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 262DEG 11KT 3832 10468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1215 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

COZ083-085-086-170645-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
1215 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FREMONT...
SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM
MDT...

At 1214 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
just north of Penrose, or 23 miles southwest of Colorado Springs,
moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Penrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3842 10501 3857 10505 3863 10484 3843 10475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 254DEG 5KT 3853 10500

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1243 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

COZ083-086-170715-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
1243 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN FREMONT AND NORTHWESTERN
PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM MDT...

At 1243 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Pueblo West, or 16 miles northwest of Pueblo. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10489 3846 10497 3851 10472 3833 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 258DEG 4KT 3839 10486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
101 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

COZ086-170730-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
101 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 130 AM MDT...

At 101 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northeastern Pueblo, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, and Blende.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10462 3840 10455 3834 10437 3818 10446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 300DEG 8KT 3829 10453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EP