Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding continue through Sunday with a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the southeast plains both days.

- Thunderstorm activity a little less widespread for Monday as
  drier air works in from the west.

- Warmer and drier for the rest of next week with isolated
  thunderstorms over the mountains most days.

- A cool front brings an uptick in thunderstorms, with the
  potential for strong to severe storms for the southeast
  mountains and plains Wed and Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Monsoon moisture with embedded disturbances continues to stream
up from the southwest across southern CO. Many areas receive
rainfall across the plains on Friday with a broad swath of 1 to
2 inch rainfall amounts across Las Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers
and Kiowa counties. Another area of 1-2 inch rainfall amounts
fell across northern Teller and El Paso counties. With more
rainfall possible today, opted to expand Flash Flood Watches
across most of the southeast plains except Baca county where
rainfall the past couple days has been much lighter.

Thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight hours
across the southeast plains with one or more thunderstorm clusters
developing and advancing east southeastward off the Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa regions. Mean CAPE off HREF ranges from up
to 1000 J/kg along the I-25 corridor to close to 2000 J/kg
across the far eastern plains with stronger deep layer shears
(30-35kts) vs yesterday. This should support a few more severe
thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds around 60 mph or greater
and hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern, especially for burn scars, urban areas and
locations with already saturated soil conditions. Kept pops
going well into the night as most CAMS suggest thunderstorm
regeneration along the southeast mountains pushing off into the
adjacent plains. Confidence is greatest for persistent
thunderstorm regeneration to the north of highway 50 and out
across Baca county along a reinforcing surge of a cold front.
Kept low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance.

A similar scenario will play out for Sunday though the axis of
higher CAPE will push westward to along the I-25 corridor where
enhanced easterly upslope flow will keep dew points in the upper
50s to close to 60. With monsoon moisture still over the region
combined with a stronger focus for thunderstorm develop across
the southeast mountains, Sunday looks like another high end day
(perhaps higher risk than today) for flash flooding of the Aspen
Acres Burn scar. Have issued another Flash Flood Watch for this
area. Thunderstorms will push eastward across the plains where
higher CAPE and better shear will reside, resulting in another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms, this time favoring the
I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the most likely threats.  A cap farther east may take a
little longer to erode on Sunday, but it still looks like
sufficient surface heating will take place for thunderstorms to
spread eastward into the evening with some regeneration possible
after dark along the I-25 corridor as a disturbance aloft moves
through the flow. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A drying trend commences on Monday though southern and eastern
areas will see one more round of heavy rain producing
thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible across the
plains where shears will range from 25 to 35 kts in the
afternoon. Flash Flooding of Aspen Acres burn scar still looks
possible though thunderstorm coverage may be a little less which
may reduce the risk some.

The upper high expands westward for Tuesday then amplifies
across the western U.S. through mid week as a shortwave trough
passes by to the north and east on Wednesday. Hot temperatures
and mostly dry conditions will return for Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the mid to upper 90s across the plains. A cold
front brings another uptick in thunderstorms to the southeast
mountains and plains Wednesday and possibly Thursday. With
southeasterly low level flow beneath northwest flow aloft, shear
will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as long
as low level moisture and sufficient CAPE is maintained. There
is some drying coming in from the north on Thursday which could
shunt the strong to severe storm potential to south of highway
50 on Thursday.

Otherwise...warmer weather returns for Friday into the weekend
with a southerly moisture tap out west recirculating through
the upper high bringing another gradual moistening along with
increasing thunderstorm chances across the mountains next
weekend. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorm outflow winds will continue to impact KCOS and KPUB
over the next 1-2 hours. KCOS should be clear from the first
round shortly, while rain and thunder will remain near KPUB for
the next hour or so. Another round of showers and isolated
thunder with potential for gusty outflow winds and MVFR VIS
will be possible later this evening, mainly between 02z and 08z,
though confidence is lower. Look for lighter winds overnight
with decreasing cloud cover, though there is a slim (20%) chance
for moisture return to lead to low CIGs at KCOS between 09z and
14z. Winds will settle on southeast by late Sunday morning, with
gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected near KCOS during the mid
to late afternoon.

At KALS, gusty north winds from distant showers will wane around
02z, then become variable after 04z. Winds will shift to the
south by late morning but speeds should generally remain light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ079-080-086.
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ081-082-084-
085-087>089-093>098.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...NWS CYS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-161745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
across most of southern Colorado today and tonight. Thunderstorms
will initiate across the higher terrain, and spread eastward
across the Plains by late afternoon into the early overnight hours.
Thunderstorms will be efficient rain producers, and flash
flooding will be possible, especially on burn scars, urban areas
or over locations with saturated soil conditions from recent heavy
rains. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Aspen Acres burn
scar and most of the southeast plains. As storms spread east into
the Plains, a few may become strong to severe, with hail to one
inch in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. The risk for
severe thunderstorms will be greatest between 2 PM and 10 PM
today.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours
across northern portions of the southeast plains with locally
heavy rainfall and lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible across southern Colorado Sunday and
Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will accompany thunderstorms, with
a continued flash flood risk, especially on area burn scars. As
storms move into the Plains, a couple may become strong to severe
with hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. The
greatest risk appears on Sunday, with a more limited potential for
severe storms on Monday.

High pressure builds across the west for mid to late week with
drier and hotter temperatures. More isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday through Friday, with
lightning and outflow wind gusts the main storm risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

31/31

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     Flash Flood      1 ESE Beulah            38.07N 104.97W
08/15/2026                   Pueblo             CO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Flooding outside of banks of North Creek and
            across road. Flooding also ongoing across
            Pine Dr, with some areas over 6 inches of
            depth.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
522 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ086-087-160000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
522 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 522 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Pueblo Reservoir to 13
miles northeast of Greenhorn Mountain. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Reservoir, Pueblo West, and Colorado City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 10457 3789 10467 3802 10492 3816 10495
      3831 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 264DEG 13KT 3827 10478 3803 10484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ099-160000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
528 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BACA COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM MDT...

At 528 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Campo, or 21 miles north of Boise City, moving
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Baca
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 10257 3721 10223 3699 10227 3700 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 168DEG 19KT 3702 10237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
530 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ099-160000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
530 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL BACA COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 530 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Campo, or 21 miles north of Boise City, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Campo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 10277 3720 10251 3700 10255 3699 10255
      3700 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 185DEG 21KT 3702 10263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
531 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ098-099-160000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
531 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 531 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Two Buttes, or 17 miles northeast of Springfield, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 10249 3763 10255 3780 10239 3762 10222
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 236DEG 13KT 3762 10246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ085-086-089-160000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Crowley County CO-
536 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN EL PASO...
NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY AND NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM
MDT...

At 536 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Yoder to 7 miles south of
Ellicott. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truckton, Yoder, and Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 10406 3853 10405 3852 10404 3849 10417
      3871 10439 3882 10430 3889 10411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 306DEG 25KT 3885 10419 3873 10435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe