Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Pueblo, CO

304 
WGUS75 KPUB 152325
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COC027-101-160130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-260816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
525 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND
WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain over the Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Between 1 and 1.5 inches
of rain have fallen. Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will
result in debris flow moving through the North Saint Charles, South
Creek, Squirrel Creek, Middle Creek, and North Creek Drainages. The
debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose
materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Middle Aspen Acres Burn
         Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
San Isabel, Highway 165, Beulah, Highway 78, stream crossings, and
county roads within and immediately downstream of the burn scar.

This includes the following high risk locations...
Beulah Water Intake, Northcreek Road county line to Red Mountain Camp
and Northcreek Road from Red Mountain Camp to Beulah.

Debris has been reported on Pine Drive near Beulah and water is
flowing over the Squirrel Creek intersection - as reported by Beulah
Fire Chief.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life-threatening situation for in and around the middle
Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Move away and to higher ground immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 10505 3801 10515 3807 10511 3810 10512
      3814 10508 3815 10503 3813 10498 3811 10498
      3808 10487 3804 10483 3803 10491

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

KTS

680 
WGUS75 KPUB 160056
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
656 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COC027-101-160106-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-260816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
656 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR IS
CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for a portion
of southeast Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 10505 3801 10515 3807 10511 3810 10512
      3814 10508 3815 10503 3813 10498 3811 10498
      3808 10487 3804 10483 3803 10491

$$

KTS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
112 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding continue through Sunday with a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the southeast plains both days.

- Thunderstorm activity a little less widespread for Monday as
  drier air works in from the west.

- Warmer and drier for the rest of next week with isolated
  thunderstorms over the mountains most days.

- A cool front brings an uptick in thunderstorms, with the
  potential for strong to severe storms for the southeast
  mountains and plains Wed and Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Monsoon moisture with embedded disturbances continues to stream
up from the southwest across southern CO. Many areas receive
rainfall across the plains on Friday with a broad swath of 1 to
2 inch rainfall amounts across Las Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers
and Kiowa counties. Another area of 1-2 inch rainfall amounts
fell across northern Teller and El Paso counties. With more
rainfall possible today, opted to expand Flash Flood Watches
across most of the southeast plains except Baca county where
rainfall the past couple days has been much lighter.

Thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight hours
across the southeast plains with one or more thunderstorm clusters
developing and advancing east southeastward off the Palmer
Divide and Raton Mesa regions. Mean CAPE off HREF ranges from up
to 1000 J/kg along the I-25 corridor to close to 2000 J/kg
across the far eastern plains with stronger deep layer shears
(30-35kts) vs yesterday. This should support a few more severe
thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds around 60 mph or greater
and hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. Heavy rainfall will
also be a concern, especially for burn scars, urban areas and
locations with already saturated soil conditions. Kept pops
going well into the night as most CAMS suggest thunderstorm
regeneration along the southeast mountains pushing off into the
adjacent plains. Confidence is greatest for persistent
thunderstorm regeneration to the north of highway 50 and out
across Baca county along a reinforcing surge of a cold front.
Kept low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance.

A similar scenario will play out for Sunday though the axis of
higher CAPE will push westward to along the I-25 corridor where
enhanced easterly upslope flow will keep dew points in the upper
50s to close to 60. With monsoon moisture still over the region
combined with a stronger focus for thunderstorm develop across
the southeast mountains, Sunday looks like another high end day
(perhaps higher risk than today) for flash flooding of the Aspen
Acres Burn scar. Have issued another Flash Flood Watch for this
area. Thunderstorms will push eastward across the plains where
higher CAPE and better shear will reside, resulting in another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms, this time favoring the
I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the most likely threats.  A cap farther east may take a
little longer to erode on Sunday, but it still looks like
sufficient surface heating will take place for thunderstorms to
spread eastward into the evening with some regeneration possible
after dark along the I-25 corridor as a disturbance aloft moves
through the flow. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A drying trend commences on Monday though southern and eastern
areas will see one more round of heavy rain producing
thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible across the
plains where shears will range from 25 to 35 kts in the
afternoon. Flash Flooding of Aspen Acres burn scar still looks
possible though thunderstorm coverage may be a little less which
may reduce the risk some.

The upper high expands westward for Tuesday then amplifies
across the western U.S. through mid week as a shortwave trough
passes by to the north and east on Wednesday. Hot temperatures
and mostly dry conditions will return for Tuesday with highs
rebounding into the mid to upper 90s across the plains. A cold
front brings another uptick in thunderstorms to the southeast
mountains and plains Wednesday and possibly Thursday. With
southeasterly low level flow beneath northwest flow aloft, shear
will be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms as long
as low level moisture and sufficient CAPE is maintained. There
is some drying coming in from the north on Thursday which could
shunt the strong to severe storm potential to south of highway
50 on Thursday.

Otherwise...warmer weather returns for Friday into the weekend
with a southerly moisture tap out west recirculating through
the upper high bringing another gradual moistening along with
increasing thunderstorm chances across the mountains next
weekend. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around 18z and
spread off into KCOS and KPUB after 20-21z. Some brief MVFR
cigs/vis will be possible with any stronger storms should
they impact the terminals, along with gusty outflow winds up
to 50 kts. Some small hail and torrential rainfall could
also accompany the stronger cells. Storms will pull east of the
terminals by 00-01z but another round will move off the
mountains during the evening affecting KCOS and possibly KPUB
through 06z-07z. Confidence is greatest at KCOS where a PROB30
group will cover this potential. Less confidence exists for
KPUB so kept this a prevailing VCSH for now.  Winds will become
dominated by thunderstorm outflows and further AMDs may be
needed to capture timing of wind shifts through the evening.
Otherwise, winds will settle into a north to northwest component
under 10 kts overnight and increase from the southeast at both
terminals on Sun with another round of showers and thunderstorms
during the late afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will be possible to the north of KALS but are
less likely to impact the terminals. North winds will spread
into KALS between 00-01z from decaying thunderstorm outflows
with speeds around 10-15 kts.  Clearing skies and light winds
will return by 06z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for COZ079-080-086.
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ081-082-084-
085-087>089-093>098.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-161745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1134 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop
across most of southern Colorado today and tonight. Thunderstorms
will initiate across the higher terrain, and spread eastward
across the Plains by late afternoon into the early overnight hours.
Thunderstorms will be efficient rain producers, and flash
flooding will be possible, especially on burn scars, urban areas
or over locations with saturated soil conditions from recent heavy
rains. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Aspen Acres burn
scar and most of the southeast plains. As storms spread east into
the Plains, a few may become strong to severe, with hail to one
inch in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. The risk for
severe thunderstorms will be greatest between 2 PM and 10 PM
today.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the overnight hours
across northern portions of the southeast plains with locally
heavy rainfall and lightning possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms will be possible across southern Colorado Sunday and
Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will accompany thunderstorms, with
a continued flash flood risk, especially on area burn scars. As
storms move into the Plains, a couple may become strong to severe
with hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph. The
greatest risk appears on Sunday, with a more limited potential for
severe storms on Monday.

High pressure builds across the west for mid to late week with
drier and hotter temperatures. More isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday through Friday, with
lightning and outflow wind gusts the main storm risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

31/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ076-077-081-083-152130-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
252 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FREMONT AND
SOUTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Royal Gorge, or 33 miles southwest of Colorado
Springs, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain, wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cripple Creek and open country of north central Fremont and
southwest Teller Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3883 10514 3850 10527 3847 10543 3853 10549
      3870 10549 3870 10533 3886 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 189DEG 20KT 3860 10537

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ084-085-152145-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
308 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM MDT...

At 307 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Falcon, or 16 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan, Peyton, and Falcon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 10420 3885 10458 3894 10468 3913 10455
      3913 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 226DEG 26KT 3895 10456

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
316 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ099-152145-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
316 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BACA COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM MDT...

At 315 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pritchett, or 16 miles west of Springfield, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 10281 3723 10297 3729 10303 3752 10305
      3748 10268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 190DEG 10KT 3735 10291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
351 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ081-083-085-086-152215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
351 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FREMONT...
SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
MDT...

At 351 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Penrose, or 21 miles southwest of Colorado Springs.
This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Fremont, southwestern El Paso and northwestern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 10491 3853 10511 3862 10510 3865 10488
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 187DEG 0KT 3857 10503

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ084-085-152230-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
358 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM MDT...

At 357 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellicott, or 24 miles east of Colorado Springs. This thunderstorm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Calhan and Peyton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 10425 3885 10439 3888 10449 3905 10449
      3905 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 186DEG 1KT 3892 10437

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

COZ081-083-085-086-152245-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
418 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FREMONT...
SOUTHEASTERN TELLER...SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 417 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Fort Carson to 10
miles northeast of Penrose. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Fort Carson, Pinon,
Security, Security-Widefield, Stratmoor, and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 10445 3839 10463 3852 10498 3863 10499
      3875 10484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 278DEG 28KT 3871 10478 3854 10488

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe