Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
439 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flooding possible on Aspen Acres Burn scar through this
  evening.

- Monsoon moisture stays over us through the weekend with
  locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, especially for
  flood prone areas like burn scars and urban areas.

- Warming and drying trend towards the middle of next week, but
  thunderstorms still possible each day.

- A possible uptick in thunderstorms for next Thursday though
  quite a bit of uncertainty in the pattern details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Monsoon plume over the region will keep showers and thunderstorms
over the area through the evening as they move off the mountains
and across the southeast plains. Primary concern will be the
potential for flash flooding, particularly over the Aspen Acres
burn scar. Otherwise, signals for heavy rainfall seem to be
focused points north and eastward, across Northern El Paso
county according to HREF and NBM blended guidance. Boundary
along the lower Arkansas river may provide a focus for some
strong to marginally severe storms along with locally heavy
rainfall through this evening as NAMNest is picking up, but
given antecedent soil moisture isn't as high as areas to the
north and east of the area, no expansions of the Flash Flood
Watch are planned at this point. Some small hail under 1 inch in
diameter and damaging winds up to near 60 mph will be possible
with localized wet microbursts.

Activity pushes eastward towards the KS border by late evening,
though an active monsoon plume could keep some weaker showers
and isolated thunderstorms going into the overnight hours out
west.

A similar scenario plays out for Friday, though model blends
still show rather low probabilities for heavy rainfall on the
Aspen Acres burn scar with probabilities of 0.50 or more under
20%. For that reason, will refrain from issuing another Flash
Flood Watch at this point but these details still need to be
fine tuned with later runs as precipitable waters will remain
in the 100-140% of normal range. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon and
push off into the adjacent plains through the evening. Heavy
rainfall capable of producing flash flooding will still be
possibility but will need to see where rain falls today before
considering flash flood watches across the remainder of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Active monsoon plume remains over the area through the weekend
with daily thunderstorm chances over the mountains and plains
each day. Probabilities for flash flooding will continue and
perhaps amplify as more areas see rainfall and antecedent soil
moistures increase. Precipitable waters remain in the 100-130%
of normal range, highest across northern and eastern portions
of the area and Saturday looks like an uptick in thunderstorms
for the southeast mountains and adjacent plains with the
possibility for more Flash Flood watches to follow. CAPE
increases over the weekend as well with some marginal shear
25-30 kts by Sunday suggesting some strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the southeast
plains. Otherwise, temperatures will remain below normal with
highs in the 80s.

Precipitable waters decrease a bit, but still remain around
100-120% of normal early next week. Upper high center shifts
westward, putting CO under a more westerly flow pattern aloft
and shunting the tap of more significant moisture off to the
south and west. But there is still sufficient moisture trapped
within the upper high to bring daily thunderstorm chances,
especially to the mountains. Heavy rainfall may still accompany
the stronger storms. Temperatures heat up again towards mid
week.

There are some hints of a pattern change through late week as we
come under the influence of more westerly flow aloft with a
passing system to our north on Thursday. Operational GFS appears
to be an outlier compared to it ensemble mean and the EC camp.
But even the EC brings a front into the southeast plains
suggesting a return of low level moisture and another uptick in
thunderstorms, albeit with more ridging aloft than GFS shows.
Either way will stick close to the NBM model blends which keep
highs in the 90s across the plains and isolated to scattered
pops district-wide. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move off the mountains into
the adjacent valleys and plains with the potential for -TSRA or VCTS
at all three terminals through 01z-02z.  Gusty outflow winds up to
40 kts and heavy rainfall will be the primary risks with the
potential for brief MVFR cigs/vis with TSRA should the terminals be
directly impacted by a stronger storm.  Most activity should move
east by 02z though linger showers within the monsoon plume could
continue into the overnight hours and will VCSH until 06z at all
three terminals.  Otherwise, expect partial clearing overnight with
-TSRA redeveloping over the mountains around noon Fri, and
 spreading into the terminals after 21z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1159 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-141800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1159 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late morning to
early afternoon, initially over the Mountains, then spreading east
into the Plains this evening.  Locally heavy rainfall including the
risk of flash flooding on the Aspen Acres burn scar is possible.  A
couple of storms may become strong this afternoon, mainly across the
Palmer Divide and areas north of Highway 50 with wind gusts up to around
50 mph and half inch hail. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
lift northeast overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue each afternoon
and evening Friday through Sunday.  Storms will initiate across the
higher terrain and spread into the Plains through the evening and
overnight hours.  Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be
possible with flash flooding possible on area burn scars.  Stronger
storms could produce gusty outflow winds and small hail.

Drier and warmer conditions return to southern Colorado for next
week, with more isolated mountain shower and thunderstorm activity
forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

31/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ097-140000-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
520 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM MDT...

At 520 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Las Animas, or 14 miles east of North La Junta, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Las Animas, John Martin Reservoir, and Fort Lyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 10328 3802 10338 3819 10324 3809 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 224DEG 11KT 3805 10327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

COZ076-077-083-140000-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
525 PM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM MDT...

At 525 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Texas Creek, or 48 miles southwest of Colorado Springs, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Texas Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 10554 3839 10564 3853 10549 3842 10529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 224DEG 11KT 3840 10552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

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