Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Pueblo, CO

213 
WGUS75 KPUB 150046
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
646 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

COC071-150056-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0050.000000T0000Z-260815T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Las Animas CO-
646 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 10389 3755 10388 3743 10384 3739 10381
      3736 10373 3739 10359 3747 10351 3758 10345
      3764 10344

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1235 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall capable of
  producing flash flooding for burn scars and urban areas
  expected  through Sunday and possibly even Monday.

- Flash Flood Watches expanded to include El Paso County through this
  evening, and another Flash Flood Watch posted for the Aspen
  Acres burn scar for Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Stronger storms possible across the southeast plains over the weekend
  as shear increases and instability remains high.

- Slight drying trend next week though daily thunderstorm chances
  will continue as the pattern shifts more to a NW flow regime

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southwest flow continues aloft with the next embedded disturbance
back over the 4 corners region resolved by models to lift
northeastward across CO through this evening.  This will bring more
widespread thunderstorms to the region through this evening with the
focus shifting eastward across the plains through the overnight
hours. Precipitable waters are running 100-150 percent of normal
according to Blended TPW with highest values across the southeast
plains where dew points will stay in the 50s and 60s today.
Mountains and valleys are progged to increase as well as next
impulse of moisture shifts in from the southwest. Needless to say,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the primary risks with
thunderstorms through this evening, although an increase in CAPE (up
to 2000 J/kg) across the plains could lead to some pulsey type
embedded severe storms with strong downburst winds (most likely in
the wet microburst category) and even some hail to near or briefly
above 1 inch in diameter with any storm interactions/outflow
collisions. Deep layer shear still looks pretty weak today, so not
expecting a widespread severe risk overall.

Main concern will continue to be the burn scars with the potential
for flash flooding.  Already have a watch posted for Aspen Acres
through 8 PM, and although odds of greater than 0.25 inches of rain
still rests in the 15-30% range (higher probs in NBM than HREF), the
very moist atmosphere combined with a disturbance and at least some
weak upslope flow make this a prudent watch.  Could see localized 2
inches or more of rain under the more intense cores (similar to
yesterday). Also added a Flash Flood Watch for El Paso county where
heavy rainfall across northern El Paso county yesterday and portions
of southern El Paso could lead to rapid runoff. The urban Colorado
Springs area will also be vulnerable to flash flooding should a
stronger storm impact this region.  Thunderstorm activity pulls off
to the northeast this evening and overnight, but the active monsoon
plume could keep a few lingering showers over the mountains and
delay clearing overnight.  This will keep low temperatures on the
warm side overnight. Could even see some patchy fog/stratus
overnight across portions of the southeast plains.

Saturday looks very similar to today with high precipitable waters
remaining over the region, though with perhaps a slight decrease
across the mountains out west.  Easterly upslope flow across the
plains keeps dew points in the 50s and lower 60s, and afternoon CAPE
will range up to 2000 J/kg. Models suggest deep layer shears will be
a little stronger due to stronger flow aloft and we could see a few
more severe thunderstorms across the plains in the afternoon. With a
stronger signal for upslope flow on the plains, and deep atmospheric
moisture over the region, will issue another Flash Flood Watch for
the Aspen Acres burn scar on Saturday.  It's also possible that the
lower Arkansas River Valley portion of the plains may see delayed
destabilization depending on outflows from thunderstorms the evening
before. If this occurs, the favored areas for strong storms may stay
concentrated across the Palmer and Raton Mesa regions.  The low
level jet Saturday evening would favor maintenance of storms farther
south across the TX/OK panhandle but expect some convection to
maintain as it moves across the plains into the evening and
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Sunday looks similarly wet as we are still under a favorable
southwesterly trajectory for monsoon moisture and embedded
disturbances moving up the west side of the upper ridge. Will likely
need another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn scar as
probabilities of flash flood producing rain amounts are above 50%
for 0.25 in the NBM blends and we are still under a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall. Southeasterly low level flow also looks stronger
on Sunday in some high res CAMs models which also raises concerns
for focused thunderstorm development across the southeast mountains.
Deep layer of 35 kts and CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg across the southeast
mountains adjacent plains also suggests some higher probs of strong
to severe storms Sunday afternoon.

Upper high to the south expands westward putting southern CO under
more westerly flow aloft for Monday  and increasingly northwesterly
flow through mid to late week.  Monday will be a transition day as
precipitable start to decrease but are still above normal.  Heavy
rainfall will still be possible, though perhaps shunted to the
southern portions of our area.  Temperatures begin to rebound a
couple degrees.  Tuesday looks drier for most of the area with
temperatures returning into the 90s across the plains.  A shortwave
trough drops through the central plains with variable timing
according to long range models but sends another cold front into the
southeast plains.  This cools temperatures down a couple degrees out
east and brings an uptick in thunderstorm chances to the southeast
mountains and plains.  Otherwise, northwest flow continues through
mid to late week as the upper high gradually builds and shifts over
western CO/UT towards next Friday.  This suggests another warm up
with recycled monsoon moisture eventually returning over the
mountains. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Ample monsoon moisture within modest southwest flow aloft across
the Rockies will lead to good coverage of slow moving thunderstorms
across the region. Storms will be capable of producing brief MVFR/IFR
vis in heavy rain, frequent lighting, gusty outflow winds up to 40kts
and small hail, especially at COS and PUB. Will keep prob30 groups
in place roughly from 21Z-01Z at all three terminals, with potential
for -shra/-tsra remaining in the vcnty through 06Z, when convective
activity expected to slowly wind down overnight. Winds to mainly
be diurnally driven, save for gusty outflows, with partial clearing
overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for COZ079-080-086.
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ084-085.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-151715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1109 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by
early afternoon, initially across the higher terrain, then
spreading northeast across the Plains this evening and overnight.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and
flash flooding is possible on area burn scars and across portions
of El Paso County where heavy rain fell yesterday. Stronger
thunderstorms across the plains could produce hail to around 1
inch in diameter and localized wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast
through the weekend into Monday. Locally heavy rainfall and an
elevated risk of flash flooding on area burn scars remains in
place. A few storms could become strong to severe, especially
Saturday on the Plains with hail larger than an inch and wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Drier and warmer conditions arrive for mid to late next week.
Thunderstorm coverage looks less, and mainly confined to the
higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

31/34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
136 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

COZ074-088-142015-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
136 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 135 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cokedale, or 7 miles west of Trinidad, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, brief pea size hail and torrential
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Quick runoff will cause ponding of water
         on roadways and quick rises in creeks, streams and normally
         dry washes.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Cokedale, Starkville, and Boncarbo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10463 3715 10478 3740 10452 3720 10429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 227DEG 18KT 3714 10464

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
206 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

COZ086-088-093-142045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
206 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN OTERO...NORTH CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Delhi, or 37 miles north of Trinidad, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief penny size hail and
         torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Quick runoff may cause ponding of water on roads
         and quick rises in creeks, streams and normally dry washes.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Otero,
north central Las Animas and southeastern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 10427 3759 10445 3790 10428 3778 10398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 206DEG 12KT 3767 10425

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

COZ074-088-142100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
218 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 218 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trinidad, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, brief penny size hail and
         torrential rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Heavy rain will cause ponding of water on
         roadways and quick rises in area creeks, streams and
         normally dry washes.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Model, and Hoehne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 10448 3724 10459 3742 10428 3719 10412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 241DEG 15KT 3720 10445

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
241 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

COZ074-088-094-142115-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
241 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 240 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Sugarite Canyon State Park, or 13 miles southeast
of Trinidad, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail and torrential
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible. Heavy rain will cause ponding of water on
         roadways and quick rises in area creeks, streams and
         normally dry washes.

Locations impacted include...
Trinchera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10437 3714 10441 3727 10409 3700 10398
      3699 10415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 251DEG 14KT 3708 10429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ESE Hoehne            37.27N 104.33W
08/14/2026  M59 MPH          Las Animas         CO   AWOS

            AWOS station KTAD Trinidad Airport.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Beulah              38.09N 104.99W
08/14/2026                   Pueblo             CO   Fire Dept/Rescue

            North Creek overflowed banks briefly across
            20 foot wide stretch of North Creek Cutoff
            Road. Water was less than 6 inches deep.

&&