Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
216 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, especially
  Palmer Divide and far eastern counties with large hail and damaging
  winds possible, and an isolated tornado risk along the Palmer Divide.

- Increasing moisture through the middle of the work week with increasing
  coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms,  a few strong to severe
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Trending drier and warmer into next weekend with more isolated
  storms possible, mainly over the higher terrain, each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moderate southwest flow aloft continues across the region, with low
level moisture back in place across the southeast plains with last
nights passing front. SPC meso analysis as of 1 pm has 500-1500 j/kg
in place across the I-25 Corridor, with 1500-2500 j/kg across the
far southeast plains. Bulk shear was running at 25-35 kts from
south to north across the region, with shear up to 40 kts across
northern Colorado at this time. Current radar, as of 1 pm, has
a severe storm producing 1" hail lifting out across northern El
Paso County, along with a few echoes across Baca county at this
time.

Latest higher res models continue to keep the best severe storm
parameters across northern El Paso and the far southeast plains
through the late afternoon, with Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 in
place across Teller, El Paso, Kiowa, Prowers and Baca counties
through 8 pm, which may be ended early, as latest models remain
consistent that convection lifts out across eastern Colorado and
western Kansas through the evening and overnight hours. This sends
another slug of low moisture back across the southeast plains
with stratus expected across the plains early tomorrow morning.
This should keep low temperatures in the 50s across the plains,
with lows mainly in the 30s and 40s expected across higher terrain.

Flow aloft becomes more west to southwest through the day tomorrow,
with another embedded wave progged to translate across the eastern
Great Basin into northwest Wyoming. This will help generate scattered
showers and storms across the higher terrain, available moisture
has increased overnight. Further east, where better low level moisture
will be in place, latest models keep to plains stable through the early
afternoon, before storms across the mtns continue to push east through
the late afternoon and early evening. The best coverage for storms looks
to be across the southern I-25 Corridor and into the southeast plains
through the evening. Strong to severe storms will remain possible, with
the main threats being hail up to 1 inch in diameter and gusty outflow
winds to near 60 mph, with locally heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding possible with the strongest storms. Temperatures are expected
to be cooler tomorrow, especially across the plains with highs in the
70s to low 80s, with 50s, 60s and 70s expected across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Model data continues to support increasing available moisture to the
area through Thursday, leading to increasing coverage of daily showers
and storms through the end of the work week. Flow aloft weakens enough
to support more locally heavy rain and the potential for localized
flash flooding, however, there may be enough severe to work the the
enhanced low level moisture to support a few severe storms across
the plains on Wednesday.

By the end of the work week into next weekend, flow aloft continues
to weaken with upper level ridging building across the Desert Southwest
into the Rockies. Models do indicate warming temperatures, but differ on
amount of available moisture in place, with likely enough moisture to
support daily chances of showers and storms, especially over and near
the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions at COS and PUB are expected through the
at least the overnight hours, with COS being on the fringe
of severe storms this afternoon. Best convection to stay north
and east of the terminals, with convection sending low level'
moisture back west overnight, with stratus expected to develop
at COS and PUB between 10Z-12Z. Stratus looks to break up before
18Z.

VFR at ALS through the period, with breezy southwest winds this
afternoon, becoming more light and dirunal through the evening
and overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
955 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-021600-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
955 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

One or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southeast plains today, generally north and east of a line from
Monument to Kim. Gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph and small hail
will be possible along the I-25 corridor after 1 PM, with thunderstorms
gaining strength as they develop or move towards the Kansas border.
The greatest risk for large hail and damaging winds will be across
northern and eastern El Paso and Kiowa counties, between 2 PM and
8 PM. Hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, wind gusts over 60 mph,
and an isolated tornado will be possible with these stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again across the
southeast plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail up
to 1 inch in diameter and locally heavy rainfall capable of
producing localized flash flooding will be possible. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains and valleys with
gusty winds up to 50 mph, lightning, and spotty light rainfall
possible.

Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be more widespread on
Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall and lightning the primary
storm risks for all areas. Drier weather will spread in for late
week into next weekend though isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible most days. Lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph,
and brief moderate rainfall will be the most likely storm risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
130 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ098-099-012000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
130 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM MDT...

At 130 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Two Buttes, or 15 miles northeast of Springfield, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 10243 3756 10254 3778 10246 3768 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 213DEG 14KT 3759 10244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
133 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ099-012000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
133 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM MDT...

At 133 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pritchett, or 14 miles west of Springfield, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 10285 3738 10299 3763 10294 3755 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 204DEG 16KT 3743 10288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ098-099-012015-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 143 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Two Buttes Reservoir, or 16 miles north of Springfield, moving north
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3757 10254 3761 10268 3789 10264 3786 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 196DEG 26KT 3765 10258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
158 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Hail             6 SW Black Forest       38.96N 104.77W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
242 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ098-012115-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
242 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Lamar, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar and Granada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 10259 3783 10274 3785 10274 3814 10265
      3805 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 208DEG 29KT 3786 10264

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
301 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ098-099-012130-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
301 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM MDT...

At 301 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Two Buttes Reservoir, or 14 miles north of Springfield, moving north
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3752 10249 3752 10265 3759 10273 3779 10270
      3774 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 194DEG 8KT 3762 10258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe