Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1247 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, especially
  Palmer Divide and far eastern counties with large hail and
  damaging winds possible with an isolated tornado risk along
  the Palmer Divide

- Another round of strong to severe storms for the southeast
  plains on Tuesday with higher CAPE but weaker deep layer shear

- Thunderstorm chances increase all areas for Wednesday with
  locally heavy rainfall possible

- A trend toward drier and warmer conditions sets in late week
  into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Frontal boundary sags southward into southeast CO through the
morning with easterly low level flow behind the front advecting
40s to low 50 dew points back westward into the southeast
plains, particularly along/north of highway 50. Lee side surface
low deepens along the southern border setting up a dry line
across eastern Las Animas and Baca counties in the afternoon.
Degree of moisture return still varies in the models with the
drier solutions keeping dew points in the 30s and 40s in the
afternoon which would push the higher CAPE and severe storm
risk just north of the area. Mean CAPEs off the HREF suggest
500-1000 J/kg for the northern I-25 corridor counties increasing
to 1500 to perhaps 2000 J/kg on the high side across Kiowa
county. SRH will maximize across northern portions of the
forecast area where enhanced easterly surface winds set up beneath
modest southwest flow aloft. NAMNest shows around 200 m2/s2
across northern El Paso county where the 00z run continues to
show an impressive updraft helicity swath. Again, models that
are slower to bring the moisture south and westward paint all
these parameters farther north. Still like the idea of a
marginal severe risk for mainly wind along the I-25 corridor and
adjacent plains, trending towards a large hail and damaging
wind risk the farther north and east you go. Northern El Paso
and Kiowa counties would have the greatest risks for large hail
and an isolated tornado and have placed highest pops up that
way.

Otherwise, it will still be fairly dry and breezy across
the western mountains and interior valleys and there will be a
return of elevated fire weather conditions even though fuels are not
considered receptive.  Temperatures will stay well above normal for
another day, topping out around 90 across the plains.

Front makes another push southward across the plains tonight,
reinforced by thunderstorm outflows. This will bring higher dew
points westward with the possibility of stratus/low clouds
develop across much of the plains and eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains overnight. This should keep low temperatures
mild across the plains with lows in the 50s. Dry airmass out
west will still favor some cooler near 30 readings in the
colder valley locations (San Luis and Upper Rio Grande).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

With more low level moisture in play across the plains on Tuesday,
and the approach of the next disturbance embedded within weakening
southwest flow aloft, this will trigger more widespread showers and
thunderstorms for the eastern mountains and plains.  Flow aloft will
be more southerly allowing the western mountains and valleys to see
an increase in mid/high level moisture which will support isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms as well. These will
be less efficient precipitation makers given inverted V soundings.
Meanwhile, higher CAPE across the plains (HREF means of
1000-2000 J/kg) but decreasing deep layer shears (25-30 kts),
may allow for a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms
once again. Storm may be more multicellular in structure, with
gusty winds and brief large hail possible with the initial
stronger updrafts or cell mergers. Risk for heavy rainfall also
increases as storm motions will be slower and there will be a
risk for redevelopment and training along/north of the old
boundary across the southeast plains into the overnight hours.
Details on where these mesoscale features set up is still in
flux, but forecast will carry higher pops for Tuesday, which
will continue into the overnight hours out east.

The active thunderstorm pattern will continue into Wednesday as
upper level troughing lingers over the area between a system
glancing through the northern plains to the north, and a closed low
over the Baja Peninsula. Flow aloft is even weaker and this may
be more of a widespread general showers and thunderstorms day
across southern Colorado. Temperatures should be cooler given
more cloud cover and earlier onset of convection. Heavy rainfall
and flash flooding may be the primary concerns this day.

Flow aloft becomes more westerly for late week suggesting an
overall drying and warming trend, though residual moisture
circulating up from the old Pacific low across the Desert
Southwest will be sufficient for daily isolated thunderstorm
chances. High temperatures will return into the 90s across the
plains for Friday through the weekend, with 70s and 80s for the
valleys and 50s and 60s for most mountain locations. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions at COS and PUB are expected through the
at least the overnight hours, with COS being on the fringe
of severe storms this afternoon. Best convection to stay north
and east of the terminals, with convection sending low level'
moisture back west overnight, with stratus expected to develop
at COS and PUB between 10Z-12Z. Stratus looks to break up before
18Z.

VFR at ALS through the period, with breezy southwest winds this
afternoon, becoming more light and dirunal through the evening
and overnight hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
955 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-021600-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
955 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

One or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southeast plains today, generally north and east of a line from
Monument to Kim. Gusty outflow winds up to 60 mph and small hail
will be possible along the I-25 corridor after 1 PM, with thunderstorms
gaining strength as they develop or move towards the Kansas border.
The greatest risk for large hail and damaging winds will be across
northern and eastern El Paso and Kiowa counties, between 2 PM and
8 PM. Hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, wind gusts over 60 mph,
and an isolated tornado will be possible with these stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again across the
southeast plains on Tuesday. Damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail up
to 1 inch in diameter and locally heavy rainfall capable of
producing localized flash flooding will be possible. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible over the mountains and valleys with
gusty winds up to 50 mph, lightning, and spotty light rainfall
possible.

Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be more widespread on
Wednesday with locally heavy rainfall and lightning the primary
storm risks for all areas. Drier weather will spread in for late
week into next weekend though isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible most days. Lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph,
and brief moderate rainfall will be the most likely storm risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

23/31

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
119 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     Hail             4 SW Black Forest       38.97N 104.75W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       El Paso            CO   NWS Employee

&&

MG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
120 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     Hail             3 SW Black Forest       38.98N 104.74W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       El Paso            CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
130 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ098-099-012000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
130 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM MDT...

At 130 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Two Buttes, or 15 miles northeast of Springfield, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 10243 3756 10254 3778 10246 3768 10215
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 213DEG 14KT 3759 10244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
133 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ099-012000-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
133 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BACA COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM MDT...

At 133 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pritchett, or 14 miles west of Springfield, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 10285 3738 10299 3763 10294 3755 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 204DEG 16KT 3743 10288

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

COZ098-099-012015-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 143 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Two Buttes Reservoir, or 16 miles north of Springfield, moving north
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3757 10254 3761 10268 3789 10264 3786 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 196DEG 26KT 3765 10258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
158 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Hail             6 SW Black Forest       38.96N 104.77W
06/01/2026  M1.00 Inch       El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

&&