Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
136 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous storms expected TODAY and TOMORROW over the
region; Storms capable of heavy rain

- A few severe storms today, Flash flooding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

As of early afternoon, numerous storms already noted over the
CONTDVD region with scattered storms along the S mtns and Pikes Peak
region. 50+ dbz cores already noted in several storms. Dewpts higher
all areas with near 70 dwpts along US50 corridor over the plains
east of KPUB. Observed PWATs over the plains above 150 to 200% of
normal with 100-150% over interior mtns.

Main concern today will obviously be flash flooding over the burn
scars, especially the Aspen Acres burn area. Photos starting to show
mudflows in the central part of the AA burn scar and if we get a
strong storm, the potential for mud flows/flash flooding will be
high.

Additionally, any storm which moves slow/trains will have the
potential to produce flash flooding today

Decent cape of 1000-1500 and some very modest shear will allow for a
few lower end severe storms and a severe thunderstorm watch has been
issued for the plains generally along and north of US50.

The activity will become more organized over as the day progresses
and a line of storm should be note over the I-25 corridor by late
afternoon, moving slowly east as the evening progresses. The activity
should reach the KS border AOA midnight. SOme storms may linger
through the early AM hours of Wednesday, especially along the CO/NM
border.

For tomorrow, I anticipate a repeat performance of today as plenty
of moisture will be through the column as the monsoon plume
remains over the region and weak short waves will be moving over the
mid level ridge over the region. Flash flooding may be more of a
concern over a larger part of the region as todays precip will
likely start to saturate the soils over the region, and more heavy
rain coming down over a brief period of time could cause issues,
especially over the burn scars and urban areas. With less shear and
CAPE severe threat will be less.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 134 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

For Thursday, anticipate it will be somewhat drier over the region
and storms this day will be more confined to the higher terrain,
with more isolated activity plains. Additionally, temps will start
to be on the increase once again.

Friday, a much more pronounced short wave will be moving down in the
NW flow aloft and winds throughout the column will be rather strong
as a jet streak will clearly be over the region. The mtns appear
drier this day so less convection over the higher terrain, but we may
see some organized severe storms over the eastern plains on this day.

Weekend into Monday...Hot. Any storms will be isolated and mainly
confined to the mtns.

Tuesday we may see cooler weather move in with a better chance of
precip. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will likely affect all of the taf
sites later this afternoon and last into the evening hours.
MVFR conditions will be possible with the storms as lower cigs
and especially vis will likely be affected as these storms will
be capable of heavy precip reducing the vis. Strong gust winds
will also be possible. The activity should begin roughly around
22 UTC and last until about 04 UTC. VFR thereafter.

Will likely refine tafs once the convection initiates and gets
closer to the taf sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1151 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-291800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1151 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous over all
of the region as the afternoon progresses. All of the storms will
be capable of heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern in the
Aspen Acres burn scar region. Additionally, the storms over the
plains could become strong and produce hail up to 1 inch in
diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. The activity will move slowly
east from late this afternoon into the evening hours. The storms
over the plains may last until the early morning hours of
Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous over the
region on Wednesday. All of the storms will be capable of heavy
rain. Flash flooding will be a concern in the Aspen Acres burn
scar region. The storms over the plains on Wednesday may last
into the late evening hours.

From Thursday into early next week, showers and storms will
become more isolaed in nature and mainly occur over the mountains.
Temperatures will once again become hot over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 NE Yoder              38.90N 104.17W
07/28/2026  M58 MPH          El Paso            CO   Public

            Personal weather station measured wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW Rush              38.88N 104.11W
07/28/2026  M59 MPH          El Paso            CO   Public

            Personal weather station measured wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
446 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SE Truckton           38.72N 104.17W
07/28/2026  M66 MPH          El Paso            CO   Public

            Personal weather station measured wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
454 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     Flash Flood      4 N Ellicott            38.90N 104.39W
07/28/2026                   El Paso            CO   Trained Spotter

            Shared video via X. Hard to estimate the
            depth, but very deep.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
506 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Flash Flood      6 ESE Texas Creek       38.36N 105.48W
07/28/2026                   Fremont            CO   Public

            Mud and debris on Copper Gulch as reported
            by Fremont County Emergency Management.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
507 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     Rain             2 SSW Wetmore           38.20N 105.10W
07/28/2026  M2.50 Inch       Custer             CO   Trained Spotter

&&