Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Pueblo, CO

627 
WGUS75 KPUB 281921
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
121 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COC027-101-282200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260728T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
121 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 121 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain over the Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of
rain has fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1
hour. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in
the warned area.

At 109 pm, Colorado State Patrol reported high water and debris over
Highway 165 near Scout Road north of San Isabel.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow
moving through the North Saint Charles, South Creek, Squirrel Creek,
Middle Creek and North Creek Drainages. The debris flow can consist
of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Middle Aspen Acres Burn
         Scar.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Beulah, Highway 78, stream crossings on Highway 165.

This includes the following high risk locations...
Beulah Water Intake and Northcreek Road from Red Mountain Camp to
Beulah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life-threatening situation for in and around the middle
Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Move away and to higher ground immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 10505 3812 10501 3811 10498 3810 10494
      3807 10493 3803 10493 3797 10503 3796 10504
      3801 10513 3808 10509 3811 10509

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

$$

116 
WGUS75 KPUB 282001
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
201 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COC027-101-282200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260728T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
201 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES...

At 201 PM MDT, local law enforcement reported flash flooding over the
Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar, with high water and debris flows over
Highway 165 north of San Isabel. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain
have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional
rainfall is expected. Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will
result in debris flow moving through the North Saint Charles, South
Creek, Squirrel Creek, Middle Creek and North Creek Drainages. The
debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose
materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash
         flooding in and around the Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around the
         Middle Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Beulah, Highway 78, stream crossings on Highway 165.

This includes the following high risk locations...
Beulah Water Intake and Northcreek Road from Red Mountain Camp to
Beulah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a life-threatening situation for in and around the middle
Aspen Acres Burn Scar. Move away and to higher ground immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 10505 3812 10501 3811 10498 3810 10494
      3807 10493 3803 10493 3797 10503 3796 10504
      3801 10513 3808 10509 3811 10509

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

171 
WGUS75 KPUB 282057
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COC027-101-282107-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-260728T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
257 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR IS
CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible after 4 pm this afternoon,
and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until midnight for all of
the Aspen Acres Burn Scar.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 10505 3812 10501 3811 10498 3810 10494
      3807 10493 3803 10493 3797 10503 3796 10504
      3801 10513 3808 10509 3811 10509

$$

EP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Abundant monsoonal moisture will bring rounds of afternoon
  and evening showers and thunderstorms areawide through Thursday.

- Storms will be capable of producing heavy rain bringing increased
  flash flooding concerns, especially for area burn scars, along
  with the potential for strong outflow winds and hail.

- Temperatures at to slightly above normal through the week before
  a warming and drying trend for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has the center
of a large upper high across northeastern New Mexico, with modest
west to southwest flow aloft in place across the Central and Northern
Rockies at this time. Water vapor imagery also has a weak embedded
wave translating through the westerly flow aloft, with GOES Blended
Total Water Vapor imagery indicating PWATs running between 120-150
percent of normal (1 to 1.40 inches) across south central and
southeast Colorado, with more sub-tropical moisture lifting north
and east into the Desert Southwest and eastern Great Basin at this
time. Said embedded disturbance is aiding in ongoing showers and
thunderstorms across southeast Colorado at this time.

Latest model data keeps abundant moisture in place within continued
modest westerly flow across the region through the day, with another
embedded wave across the eastern Great Basin, expected to translate
through the flow through the evening. The abundant moisture, combined
with strong solar heating, uvv from the passing wave, and easterly
upslope across the plains, will develop scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the higher terrain from the late morning
through the late evening, with storms pushing east into a more unstable
atmosphere across the I-25 Corridor and southeast plains through the
afternoon and evening. Storms will be efficient rain makers, and with
potential for training storms across the eastern mtns, we have issued
a Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn area from noon through
midnight. The modest westerly flow will keep storms moving today,
however, with very juicy airmass in place, will also see heavy rain
and localized flash flooding across the southeast plains, where the
latest WPC Excessive Rain Outlook has a slight risk. Also, can not
rule out the potential for strong to severe storms, generally along
and east of the I-25 Corridor and north of Highway 50, where upslope
flow and modest shear will be maximized. Main threats, other than the
heavy rain, will be wind gusts to around 60 mph and hail generally
less than an inch in diameter. Storms will likely produce frequent of
lightning as well, however, the rain will hopefully be enough to
quell fire starts. Convection diminishes and ends west to east through
the late evening, partially clearing skies through early Wednesday
morning. With slight cooling aloft and expected early convection,
high temperatures will be in the 90s to around 100 across the
southeast plains, with 60s, 70s and 80s expected across the higher
terrain. Overnight lows should also be cooler and closer to seasonal
norms in the 60s across the plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A similar set up remains for Wednesday, as ample moisture remains
in place, along with another progged wave translating through the
modest westerly flow in place across the region. Scattered to numerous
storms develop across the higher terrain Wednesday afternoon, and
push out across the plains through the evening. We will likely need
another Flash Flood Watch for the Aspen Acres burn area again on
Wednesday, and depending on much rain falls today, there could
be the potential to expand watches further east across the plains.

Longer term model and ensemble data continue to support drier air
working back into the Rockies for the end of the week into the weekend
and early next week, as the upper ridge builds back into the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin region, bringing more north to northwest
flow aloft into the Rockies. There will likely be enough residual
moisture to support scattered afternoon showers and storms over the
higher terrain through the weekend, though storms will likely be on
the drier side and less efficient rain makers. Temperatures will start
to warm back to above seasonal levels into early next week, as the
ridge starts to build back into the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will likely affect all of the taf
sites later this afternoon and last into the evening hours.
MVFR conditions will be possible with the storms as lower cigs
and especially vis will likely be affected as these storms will
be capable of heavy precip reducing the vis. Strong gust winds
will also be possible. The activity should begin roughly around
22 UTC and last until about 04 UTC. VFR thereafter.

Will likely refine tafs once the convection initiates and gets
closer to the taf sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1151 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-291800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1151 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous over all
of the region as the afternoon progresses. All of the storms will
be capable of heavy rain. Flash flooding will be a concern in the
Aspen Acres burn scar region. Additionally, the storms over the
plains could become strong and produce hail up to 1 inch in
diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph. The activity will move slowly
east from late this afternoon into the evening hours. The storms
over the plains may last until the early morning hours of
Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to numerous over the
region on Wednesday. All of the storms will be capable of heavy
rain. Flash flooding will be a concern in the Aspen Acres burn
scar region. The storms over the plains on Wednesday may last
into the late evening hours.

From Thursday into early next week, showers and storms will
become more isolaed in nature and mainly occur over the mountains.
Temperatures will once again become hot over the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1146 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COZ060>062-281815-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft CO-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
1146 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY
THROUGH 1215 PM MDT...

At 1145 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alpine, or 36 miles east of Gunnison, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Maysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 10636 3873 10623 3868 10602 3849 10621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 302DEG 6KT 3866 10627

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1231 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COZ079-080-281900-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
1231 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL HUERFANO...
SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER AND SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM
MDT...

At 1231 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northwest of Greenhorn Mountain, or 32 miles southwest of
Pueblo, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Huerfano, southeastern Custer and southwestern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 10529 3815 10508 3791 10504 3786 10523
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 339DEG 9KT 3805 10516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1234 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

COZ061>063-072-281900-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft CO-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft CO-
1234 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY
THROUGH 100 PM MDT...

At 1234 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Poncha Springs, or 44 miles east of Gunnison, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salida, Poncha Springs, Maysville, northern Decker Burn Scar, and
Poncha Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 10625 3869 10611 3860 10589 3846 10601
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 305DEG 14KT 3858 10611

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

EP