Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...INCLUDING THE
CITIES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

- Severe storm threat continues into Friday for the plains.

- Red flag conditions for the interior mtns and valleys Today and
Wednesday.

- Some precip for the mtns tomorrow, more on Thursday.

- Hot and dry all areas this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Moisture continues to surge westward and upslope into the
terrain. With satellite and radar showing thunderstorms
developing, the severe thunderstorm watch has been expanded to
include Huerfano, Las Animas, and Otero Counties. Supercells
capable of producing destructive hail to 4 inches are still
expected into the overnight hours. A tornado and strong winds
will also be possible with any more isolated and sustained
supercell.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Main concern today and tonight will be the threat of high end severe
convection over the region. For this afternoon, any convection will
be isolated, but potentially impactful. First threat area will be
Baca county as 5000 CAPE noted at this time with sufficient shear.
If a storm should initiate, it will likely be severe, However it
should move relatively quickly into the OK and TX panhandles.

2nd threat area for this afternoon is the Pikes Peak region. Model
solutions vary considerably with any convection initiating in this
region, but latest HRR has some convection initiating over eastern
El Paso around 6 pm and moving east.

The main time period of concern is late this evening after 10 pm for
the I-25 corridor region. Many hi res solutions show supercells
exploding up and down the I-25 corridor and moving east. Large
destructive wind drive hail will be possible. Tornadoes cannot
be ruled out even along the I-25 corridor region.

Why is this scenario playing out like this? General weak subsidence
is moving over the region this afternoon which is preventing
convection from being more widespread. However, tonight, strong
forcing from a shortwave will move in after 9-10 pm and once this
forcing hits the unstable airmass over the plains, it will ignite
the convection over the region. With the 40-50knts of shear in
place, the storms will likely rotate.

Tomorrow, we will see another round of severe storms over the
plains. These storms will likely initiate a bit later than normal as
the plains will likely be rather stable tomorrow morning, and will
take awhile to destabilize. Large hail and damaging winds and
isolated tornadoes will once again be possible.

Moisture will also start to move into the mtns and we will see some
shower over the CONTDVD tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

For Thursday, severe storms will once again be possible over
the plains. Over the mtns, there will be a much better chance of
wetting rains as a moisture plume will move over the higher
terrain this day.

Friday, showers and thunderstorms over the entire region, but they
should be more generic in nature as the instability and shear will
be much less on this day.

Weekend...

HOT and DRY. 100s return to the plains. Meteorological conditions
for extreme fire behavior will be in place both days

Monday, a bit cooler with isold showers. Tuesday will be hot and dry
again. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Chaotic storms will continue through the early TAF period tonight.
LIFR is possible under and around the storm cores due to low
ceilings, degraded visibilities, and severe storms. After 09Z or so,
terminals along the front range should return to VFR with lingering
cloud ceilings and light winds. easterly to southeasterly flow will
develop tomorrow with gusts up to 25kts. Afternoon storms are
possible again with the increased potential for variable strong wind
gusts due to storms downburst. Expect lowered categories to
develop after 02Z lasting into the evening as models continue to
put storms developing along the mtns and moving eastward over
terminal sites.

KALS will have light winds through the morning before gusty
westerlies develop. Models show increased chances of localized
thunderstorms moving over the terminals beginning around 00Z (+/-
1hr).

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Wednesday for COZ220-
224.

&&

UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...DS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1102 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-241715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1102 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT OVER ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...INCLUDING THE
CITIES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

A very unstable airmass will be over the region today and tonight.
For today, the thunderstorms are expected to be isolated over the
region, with the best chances beeing over the Pikes Peak region
and Baca county. Although the storms will be isolated, they will
be capable of very large hail...2 to 3.5 inches in
diameter...damaging winds to 75 mph or more and isolated
tornadoes.

A more significant severe weather threat will occur late this
evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Several
supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
immediate I-25 corridor and then move slowly southeast. Computer
simulations show some of these storms affecting the major cities
along the I-25 corridor, including, but not limited to, all of the
lower elevations of the Pikes Peak region, Pueblo, Trinidad and
Walsenburg. Destructive hail, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes will be possible with these dangerous supercell
thunderstorms. If the storms move slow enough, then flash flooding
will be possible.

Please be weather alert today and especially tonight over the
southeast Colorado region. If you have access to a garage, park
your car in it to avoid potential destructive hail damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong to severe storms will again be possible Wednesday through
Friday across the eastern plains, with large hail and damaging winds
the primary hazards. Otherwise, typical Summer thunderstorms are
expected across the valleys and mountains, with small hail and gusty
outflow winds expected. Critical fire weather conditions may also
return for the valleys Wednesday. More widespread and substantial
critical fire weather conditions are expected to return this weekend
and into early next as dry and windy conditions return.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

Hodanish

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