Flash Flood Warning 59, NWS Pueblo, CO

624 
WGUS75 KPUB 162215
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
415 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COC027-101-162225-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-260816T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Custer CO-Pueblo CO-
415 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE ASPEN ACRES BURN SCAR HAS
EXPIRED FOR EAST CENTRAL CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for a portion
of southeast Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 10515 3807 10511 3810 10512 3814 10508
      3815 10503 3813 10498 3811 10498 3808 10487
      3804 10483 3802 10490 3796 10502 3793 10505
      3792 10507 3794 10507 3796 10508 3795 10509

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1241 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms continue this evening, some strong to severe.
Strong winds, hail, and heavy rain/flash flooding on the table.

- Afternoon storms are expected again on Monday, mostly over the
eastern mountains and Raton Mesa.

- A bit drier through the rest of the week, though some scattered
storms will still be possible each afternoon starting Weds.

- Warmer temps return this week and into the weekend. Eastern
  plains may hit triple digits this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

With the monsoon plume funneling right into our area, thunderstorm
activity is expected to move across our area through the rest of the
afternoon and into this evening. Strong to severe storms are still
anticipated, with current analysis showing 1000 J/kg of CAPE along I-
25, increasing to 2000+ further east. Additionally, the eastern half
of our CWA shows 30 knots or so of effective bulk shear. Dewpoints
remain in the 50s over most of these areas as well, close to 60 in
places.

Storms will continue to initiate over our eastern mountains, pushing
over the plains within the next few hours and intensifying. Main
storm hazards remain on track from previous forecasts, with outflow
winds 60-70 mph, hail up to 1.5 inches, heavy rain and flash
flooding. Flood Watch for Aspen Acres remains in effect thru 8pm.

Storms will move off to the east later tonight, with mild
temperatures and lingering low-level moisture setting things up for
tomorrow.

Monday...

The upper ridge will build back in over our area on Monday, kicking
the monsoon plume to our west and giving us a slightly drier day.
However, some lingering low-level moisture should coincide with a
weak passing shortwave aloft, allowing for some afternoon
thunderstorm formation, though noticeably less than today. The
majority of convection will form over our southeast mountains,
spreading close to the Raton Mesa and far southern plains later in
the day, while a few isolated to scattered storms will be possible
over the San Juans and the Pikes Peak Region. Storms along the
terrain will be on the weaker side, with outflow to 50 mph and hail
up to half an inch or so. If storms manage to persist long enough to
move onto the eastern plains, they will encounter moist,
southeasterly surface winds and better forcing thanks to the passing
shortwave. Some stronger to severe storms (60 mph winds, 1 inch
hail) will be possible late afternoon into early evening.
Additionally, any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall,
so flash flooding will still be a concern over burn scars, though
again coverage and confidence are both lower for Monday than today.
Finally, highs will be a few degrees warmer across the region, with
mid-80s to low-90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Long-range forecast remains on track, with the upper high expected
to build back in over the Four Corners Region. This will amplify the
upper ridge, leading to drier conditions across the area through
most of the week. After much drier conditions on Tuesday, lingering
low to mid-level moisture will allow for more scattered thunderstorm
activity each day. Storms will first form over the mountains, with a
passing front on Wednesday bringing precipitation back to the plains
as well. Meanwhile, high temps will increase across the board, with
high-80s over the valleys and high-90s over the eastern plains, with
a low but non-zero chance for some more triple digits heading into
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through
24 hours.

Scattered showers and storms will move past KCOS and KPUB between 20-
03Z, with expected outflow winds over 40 knots. Chances for direct
impact at KPUB remains low, so left as PROB30. Confidence in precip
at KCOS has increased, so added a TEMPO group there, followed by a
PROB30 this evening for when coverage becomes more sparse.

Currently, no precip or storm-related impacts at KALS this period,
with winds mainly retaining a southerly component. Mid-level clouds
will linger across the area as well.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-171730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1121 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon
across the higher terrain, and spread east into the Plains during
the afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall and lightning, and as they move into the lower elevations,
a few could become strong to severe with hail to 1.5 inches in
diameter and wind gusts 60 to 70 mph. A Flash Flood Watch is in
effect for the Aspen Acres burn scar for this afternoon and evening.
Showers and thunderstorms could redevelop during the evening hours
along the Highway 50 corridor, but should remain sub severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms is forecast
for Monday. Heavy rainfall, hail to half inch in diameter and wind
gusts to 50 mph may accompany stronger storms. Flash flooding could
be possible on areas burn scars if a storm moves over one.

Drier air and high pressure will return to the area beginning
Tuesday and prevail into next weekend. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will diminish to more isolated to scattered in nature, and
temperatures will warm. A cold front may lead to slightly more
thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, but overall, conditions will be
drier.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/88

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1234 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ081-082-085-161900-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
1234 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM MDT...

At 1233 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pikes Peak, or 16 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Western Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs, Green Mountain Falls,
Pikes Peak, Crystola, Chipita Park, and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 10517 3889 10520 3900 10494 3880 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 248DEG 16KT 3883 10513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1257 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ074-088-161930-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1257 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

At 1257 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gulnare, or 20 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gulnare and Boncarbo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 10494 3738 10490 3738 10456 3715 10462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 286DEG 12KT 3730 10483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
111 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ079-080-083-086-161945-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
111 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...EAST
CENTRAL CUSTER AND WEST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 111 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Greenhorn Mountain, or 27 miles southwest of Pueblo,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beulah and San Isabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3796 10510 3810 10519 3827 10494 3801 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 239DEG 8KT 3807 10505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
112 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

COZ074-088-161945-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
112 PM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM MDT...

At 112 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Segundo, or 18 miles southwest of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Segundo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 10481 3709 10452 3699 10465 3699 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 211DEG 5KT 3701 10477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Simcoe