Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Pueblo, CO

059 
WGUS75 KPUB 152032
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
232 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

COC015-152200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260715T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
232 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

At 232 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 0.8 and 1 inch of rain has
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Cottonwood Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where
you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become
killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or
creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 10635 3885 10628 3883 10624 3882 10618
      3880 10622 3875 10625 3874 10628 3874 10635
      3871 10640 3872 10642 3875 10642 3879 10641
      3881 10642 3882 10642 3883 10641 3882 10639

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Simcoe

884 
WGUS75 KPUB 152158
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

COC015-152208-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260715T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
358 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 10635 3885 10628 3883 10624 3882 10618
      3880 10622 3875 10625 3874 10628 3874 10635
      3871 10640 3872 10642 3875 10642 3879 10641
      3881 10642 3882 10642 3883 10641 3882 10639

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1239 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chances of mountain thunderstorms through Friday.

- Pockets of heavy rainfall could cause flash flood concerns over
recent burn scar areas.

- Slightly drier this weekend, with moisture returning to all of SE
Colorado next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the mountains through
the rest of the day and into early tonight. Main impact concern will
be flash flooding over the Willow burn scar, due to pockets of
moderate to heavy rainfall.

For Thursday, we will continue to see an uptick in available
moisture, leading to more widespread coverage for showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains. Not too dissimilar from today,
showers will fire over the Continental Divide by around midday,
increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. Easterly flow
across the region will keep storms tied to the mountains, meaning
that the plains will once again remain dry. With PWATs steadily
increasing over the region, chances for heavy rainfall will continue
to increase as well, meaning that any storm over a burn scar area
will be capable of producing flash flooding conditions. Main area of
concern will again be the Willow fire. Temperatures will be similar
again as well, with 80s to mid-90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Uptick in thunderstorm activity will continue on Friday, with PWATs
creeping towards the 150% of normal range. Best chances for heavy
rain will be over the peak of the Continental Divide, with the main
risk area being the Willow burn scar. Storms look to get a little
strong as well, with pockets of 800-1000 /kg of CAPE during the
afternoon, along with 20-25 knots of bulk shear, which further
increases chances for flash flooding. Given the east to northeast
steering flow, still expecting the plains to remain dry.

Over the weekend, the upper high builds overhead more, pushing the
moisture plume a bit further west. As a result, the southeast
mountains will remain mostly dry through the weekend, with only
scattered POPs over the Continental Divide. Temperatures will also
warm a bit, reaching high-90s to low-100s over the far eastern
plains by Sunday afternoon.

Moving into next week, recycles monsoon moisture is expected to move
around the high as it shifts. With PWATs increasing across the
state, and a cold front moving onto the plains on Monday, POPs will
spread over our entire CWA. Chances for wetting rains over the
eastern plains will increase Monday evening towards the middle of
next week, with showers and thunderstorms possible each day.
Meanwhile, temperatures will drop a few degrees as well, settling
right around seasonal averages. Flash flooding over our burn scars
will continue to be our main concern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will gust from the SE this afternoon, 20-25 knots or so
at all three terminals. There will be a period where thunderstorms
will move over the San Luis Valley, which could impact KALS briefly.
Due to scattered coverage, left as PROB30 for now, with chances 22-
03Z this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-161745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across the
mountains and interior valleys this afternoon and evening. Locally
heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will
be the primary storm risks. Burn scar flash flooding will be
possible, particularly for the Willow burn scar along the
Continental Divide, if it becomes directly impacted by a stronger
storm. Thunderstorms will diminish around midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible each day through Friday across the mountains and valleys.
Locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding for area
burn scars, lightning, and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will be
the primary storm risks, especially for the Willow burn scar.

While daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms return along the
Continental Divide through the weekend, warmer and drier air will
spread into the southeast mountains plains. Temperatures will
approach or exceed the century mark for portions of the plains both
days.

A pattern change will bring a potential uptick in showers and
thunderstorms again to all of southern Colorado early next week, as
monsoon moisture increases out west, and a cool front brings
increasing low level moisture in easterly upslope flow to the
southeast mountains and plains. This will increase the potential for
flash flooding on all area burn scars Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO