Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Pueblo, CO

166 
WGUS75 KPUB 152000
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
200 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

COC015-152115-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260715T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
200 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

At 200 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Alpine and St Elmo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10644 3875 10615 3871 10615 3860 10636
      3862 10637 3862 10638 3863 10639 3864 10638
      3864 10640 3865 10640 3864 10642 3865 10643
      3866 10643

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Simcoe

619 
WGUS75 KPUB 152110
FFSPUB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

COC015-152120-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260715T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chaffee CO-
310 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10644 3875 10615 3871 10615 3860 10636
      3862 10637 3862 10638 3863 10639 3864 10638
      3864 10640 3865 10640 3864 10642 3865 10643
      3866 10643

$$

Simcoe

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Uptick in thunderstorm chances will continue across the
  mountains through the week, while southeast plains remain dry
  with near normal temperatures

- Convection shifts westward over the weekend to the
  Continental Divide region with drier and warmer conditions
  across the southeast mountains and plains

- Increasing odds for wetting rains across the southeast
  mountains and plains early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Today should be fairly similar to yesterday with another round of
thunderstorms firing over the mountains around noon, and spreading
across the adjacent valleys through the afternoon and evening.
Northeasterly steering currents should keep storms tied to the
mountains as they drift slowly southwestward through the
afternoon and evening. This should keep rain chances limited to
the mountains and valleys, while the southeast plains remaining
dry. With increasing precipitable waters on Wednesday (running
up to 150% of normal across the mountains/valleys), thunderstorm
coverage increases in high res models. Latest NBM pops reflect
this uptick with 60 to 80 percent pops across the mountains and
30-50 percent across the interior valleys. Some spotty heavy
rainfall will be possible which could cause flash flooding of
burn scars. Willow fire area will be of primary concern for
Wednesday.

Otherwise temperatures should be fairly similar to yesterday with
highs in the lower 90s across the plains, 80s for the valleys and
60s and 70s for the mountains. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A gradual uptick in thunderstorms will continue through Friday
across the mountains and valleys as higher precipitable waters edge
a little eastward each day.  Precipitable waters will range from
around 100-150% of normal each day with highest values along the
Continental Divide and western slopes.  CAPE increases a little each
day as well, though stays well below 1000 J/kg, with weak easterly
steering currents and deep layer shears running under 20 kts
suggesting locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash
flooding being the primary risk.  Still looks like greatest risk
will be for our western burn scars (Willow), but some subtle
eastward shifts in the moisture will need to be watched closely.
Otherwise, temperatures remain near to a little above normal across
the plains where it will remain dry as storms stay confined to the
mountains and valleys.

The weekend will see only subtle changes in the overall pattern.
As the upper high moves over the Rockies, this does shift the
southerly monsoon moisture tap a bit farther west, resulting in
a drier forecast for the southeast mountains. The southeast
plains will see temperatures climb above the century mark again
with afternoon humidity values dropping to around 15%. Winds
should stay just below critical fire weather thresholds under
ridging aloft. But bottom line, hot and dry east of the
Continental Divide will be the main message.

Best chances for precipitation east of the mountains will come early
next week as the upper high shifts westward, putting southern
CO under northwesterly flow aloft along the eastern side of the
upper high. Long range models/ensemble means suggest recycled
monsoon moisture will round the top of the upper high while
troughing to the northeast eventually send a cold front with
increasing low level moisture/upslope flow into the southeast
mountains and plains. Confidence in the details are still a bit
sketchy, but the potential pattern change does suggest an
increased chance for wetting rains to spread eastward across the
plains as early as Monday evening, and more likely Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will also cool temperatures back down to near
normal into early next week. Flash flooding of some of our
eastern mountain burn scars will become a greater concern as we
enter this period. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds will gust from the SE this afternoon, 20-25 knots or so
at all three terminals. There will be a period where thunderstorms
will move over the San Luis Valley, which could impact KALS briefly.
Due to scattered coverage, left as PROB30 for now, with chances 22-
03Z this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

COZ058>089-093>099-161745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1135 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across the
mountains and interior valleys this afternoon and evening. Locally
heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will
be the primary storm risks. Burn scar flash flooding will be
possible, particularly for the Willow burn scar along the
Continental Divide, if it becomes directly impacted by a stronger
storm. Thunderstorms will diminish around midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible each day through Friday across the mountains and valleys.
Locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding for area
burn scars, lightning, and gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will be
the primary storm risks, especially for the Willow burn scar.

While daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms return along the
Continental Divide through the weekend, warmer and drier air will
spread into the southeast mountains plains. Temperatures will
approach or exceed the century mark for portions of the plains both
days.

A pattern change will bring a potential uptick in showers and
thunderstorms again to all of southern Colorado early next week, as
monsoon moisture increases out west, and a cool front brings
increasing low level moisture in easterly upslope flow to the
southeast mountains and plains. This will increase the potential for
flash flooding on all area burn scars Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO