Tornado Warning 31, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant severe weather event will impact the Quad State
  this afternoon into tonight. Elevated isolated supercells
  this morning that are capable of producing large hail will
  become surface based this afternoon. Strong tornadoes, very
  large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. Discrete
  storms grow upscale into a line tonight with damaging winds
  and embedded strong tornadoes.

- Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon with
  wind gusts between 25-35 mph. There is a 40-50% chance wind
  gusts briefly reach 40 mph.

- Another round of severe weather is possible late Tuesday
  afternoon into Tuesday evening. Very large hail, damaging
  winds, and isolated tornadoes are the hazards of concern.
  There is a 60-70% chance of total 48 hour rainfall of 2
  inches or more. Localized flash flooding issues are possible.

- Temperatures trend near to slightly below normal Wednesday
  into next weekend. Most of the period is dry, but a 20-30%
  chance of light rain showers return on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Elevated convection is ongoing across the Quad State this morning,
with isolated supercells that have been producing large hail. As the
back edge of the MCS lifts more northeast, destabilization will
quickly occur with an influx of higher dewpoints near 70 degrees
pushing northward across the Missouri Bootheel. The air mass
recovery by this afternoon quickly translates to 2500 to 3500 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 7.5 to 8.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Combined
with 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH and STP values of 3.0-6.0,
strong EF3+ tornadoes, large hail over 2 inches, and damaging
wind gusts over 60 mph will all be possible. The storm mode this
afternoon will be more discrete with the HRRR showing a cluster
of supercells developing. As a meso low near STL lifts
northeast this evening, the winds at the sfc become more backed,
especially in SPCs 15% tornado risk that clips portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

While the ongoing convection has always been the greatest
uncertainty with the forecast, model consensus continues to
remain strong for the storm mode to transition to line segments
this evening with convection rapidly growing upscale into a
QLCS. This is when the highest damaging wind risk will occur
with DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Embedded strong tornadoes also remain
likely with sfc-1 km shear around 30-35 kts. Instability begins
to drop off as storms move into southwest Indiana and the
western Kentucky Pennyrile, allowing for some weakening into the
overnight hours.

Breezy conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms through this
afternoon with a 40-50% chance of wind gusts briefly reaching 40 mph
locally. Most gusts however should remain in the 25-35 mph range.
Given the brief duration, have decided to hold off on issuing a Wind
Advisory as the impacts will be subtle compared to the severe
weather that will impact most of the FA.

The potential for another round of severe weather continues to
increase on Tuesday as another wave moves trough with a stalled
frontal boundary. The CAMs show a MCS pushing across southeast
Missouri and western Kentucky Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. The thermodynamics support damaging wind and very large
hail with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and mid-level lapse rates
between 8.0-9.0 C/km. The tornado risk will be more isolated with
lower intensity compared to today, but 15 kts of sfc-1 km shear will
be enough to support a few spin ups. If the boundary shifts more
north and convection trends slower, convection would overlap with
the better 40 kt LLJ in the evening to support a higher risk.

Due to the potential for training convection, the risk of localized
Flash Flooding has increased with another 3 rounds of thunderstorms
expected through Tuesday evening. Total 48 hour rainfall is forecast
between 1.5 to 3.5 inches, with a 60-70% chance of 2 or more inches.
Given the ongoing drought conditions, flooding issues will be more
prone to the typical urban and low-lying locations that are more
sensitive with PWATs around 1.5 inches.

Dry and much cooler conditions return on Wednesday with a broad
trough aloft settling over the Ohio Valley. Daily slightly below
normal high temperatures range from the mid 60s to near 70
through Friday before trending warmer closer to normal next
weekend. There remains a 20-30% chance of light rain showers on
Friday. The GEFS is further north with a low pressure system
that tracks over the lower Mississippi River Valley with QPF
between 0.10 to 0.25 inches. Meanwhile, the EPS and GEPS keeps
this system more suppressed with very little rainfall. A dry
weekend then follows as sfc high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Shra/tsra possible at all TAF sites through 07z, and some
strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail are possible
between mainly 02z-07z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible with
storms. Away from storms and through the TAF period, VFR
conditions expected with cigs between 3500-9000, becoming SCT
after 08-11z. Winds from the south to southwest at 10-20kts
with gusts to 25-30kts will become northwest at 5-12kts after
08z, with decreasing speeds through the night. Shra/tsra return
very late in the TAF period at KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...RST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1122 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281630-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1122 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 /1222 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon
into tonight. Very large hail, greater than golfball size, strong
tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible. The greatest
threat seems to be in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
this evening.

Any storm today and tonight will produce torrential rainfall. A
flash flood threat could develop in areas that receive multiple
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Numerous strong to severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening. Very large hail and damaging winds will be
the main concerns, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Torrential rainfall could lead to an isolated flash flood threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed throughout the Quad State this
afternoon into tonight. Activation throughout the region may be
needed again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

DW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1032 PM     Hail             3 W Creal Springs       37.62N 88.88W
04/27/2026  E0.50 Inch       Williamson         IL   Public

&&

jm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1045 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ082-087-280430-
Warrick IN-Pike IN-
1045 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WARRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT/1230 AM EDT/...

At 1044 PM CDT/1144 PM EDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles northwest of Jasper
to near Kasson. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boonville, Newburgh, Chandler, Lynnville, Winslow, Folsomville,
Elberfeld, Tennyson, and Spurgeon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between Mile Markers 6 and 7, and near Mile
Marker 22.
 Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 30 and 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT/600 AM EDT/ for
southwestern Indiana...and northwestern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8707 3820 8702 3812 8702 3812 8707
      3808 8709 3805 8709 3806 8715 3803 8716
      3802 8715 3801 8718 3793 8727 3789 8727
      3794 8738 3794 8745 3819 8747 3820 8745
      3820 8732 3838 8731 3852 8709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 270DEG 40KT 3846 8707 3800 8768

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ087-090-091-KYZ010-014-280445-
Gallatin IL-Pope IL-Hardin IL-Crittenden KY-Union KY-
1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HARDIN...NORTHERN POPE...
GALLATIN...NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1058 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Equality, or 7 miles south of Eldorado, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morganfield, Sturgis, Shawneetown, Breckinridge Center, Uniontown,
Ridgway, Equality, New Haven, Cave-in-Rock, Waverly, Elizabethtown,
Old Shawneetown, Junction, Eddyville, Karbers Ridge, and Gross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southern and
southeastern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...and western and
northwestern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 8806 3784 8803 3782 8809 3780 8807
      3781 8804 3777 8795 3781 8790 3788 8794
      3788 8791 3777 8782 3775 8779 3776 8777
      3764 8774 3746 8796 3743 8871 3760 8871
      3760 8838 3776 8837 3791 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 271DEG 37KT 3772 8841

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1109 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ086-KYZ018-280445-
Vanderburgh IN-Henderson KY-
1109 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN VANDERBURGH AND
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Henderson, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Evansville, Henderson, Corydon, Robards, and Hebbardsville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 139 and 148.
 Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southwestern
Indiana...and northwestern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 8739 3767 8742 3764 8773 3776 8776
      3777 8782 3790 8793 3793 8789 3788 8784
      3787 8779 3790 8768 3783 8768 3783 8764
      3786 8759 3792 8763 3797 8760 3791 8751
      3794 8739 3790 8730 3782 8732 3778 8727
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 289DEG 51KT 3780 8761

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1125 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ088-KYZ019-280515-
Spencer IN-Daviess KY-
1125 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SPENCER AND DAVIESS COUNTIES
THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1125 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Santa Claus to near St. Joseph. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Owensboro, Rockport, Dale, Grandview, Whitesville, Santa Claus,
Knottsville, St. Joseph, Masonville, Stanley, Eureka, Chrisney, Troy,
Gentryville, Moseleyville, and Pleasant Ridge.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 165 between Mile Markers 60 and 70.
 Interstate 64 in Indiana between Mile Markers 55 and 60.
 Audubon Parkway between Mile Markers 16 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for southwestern
Indiana...and northwestern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 8698 3790 8699 3790 8691 3784 8691
      3779 8682 3771 8686 3767 8683 3756 8704
      3766 8735 3770 8740 3778 8727 3782 8732
      3789 8731 3806 8715 3805 8709 3812 8707
      3812 8702 3820 8702 3820 8679 3800 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 287DEG 34KT 3816 8691 3776 8737

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL

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