Tornado Warning 26, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant severe weather event will impact the Quad State
  this afternoon into tonight. Elevated isolated supercells
  this morning that are capable of producing large hail will
  become surface based this afternoon. Strong tornadoes, very
  large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible. Discrete
  storms grow upscale into a line tonight with damaging winds
  and embedded strong tornadoes.

- Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon with
  wind gusts between 25-35 mph. There is a 40-50% chance wind
  gusts briefly reach 40 mph.

- Another round of severe weather is possible late Tuesday
  afternoon into Tuesday evening. Very large hail, damaging
  winds, and isolated tornadoes are the hazards of concern.
  There is a 60-70% chance of total 48 hour rainfall of 2
  inches or more. Localized flash flooding issues are possible.

- Temperatures trend near to slightly below normal Wednesday
  into next weekend. Most of the period is dry, but a 20-30%
  chance of light rain showers return on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Elevated convection is ongoing across the Quad State this morning,
with isolated supercells that have been producing large hail. As the
back edge of the MCS lifts more northeast, destabilization will
quickly occur with an influx of higher dewpoints near 70 degrees
pushing northward across the Missouri Bootheel. The air mass
recovery by this afternoon quickly translates to 2500 to 3500 J/kg
of SBCAPE and 7.5 to 8.0 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Combined
with 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH and STP values of 3.0-6.0,
strong EF3+ tornadoes, large hail over 2 inches, and damaging
wind gusts over 60 mph will all be possible. The storm mode this
afternoon will be more discrete with the HRRR showing a cluster
of supercells developing. As a meso low near STL lifts
northeast this evening, the winds at the sfc become more backed,
especially in SPCs 15% tornado risk that clips portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

While the ongoing convection has always been the greatest
uncertainty with the forecast, model consensus continues to
remain strong for the storm mode to transition to line segments
this evening with convection rapidly growing upscale into a
QLCS. This is when the highest damaging wind risk will occur
with DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Embedded strong tornadoes also remain
likely with sfc-1 km shear around 30-35 kts. Instability begins
to drop off as storms move into southwest Indiana and the
western Kentucky Pennyrile, allowing for some weakening into the
overnight hours.

Breezy conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms through this
afternoon with a 40-50% chance of wind gusts briefly reaching 40 mph
locally. Most gusts however should remain in the 25-35 mph range.
Given the brief duration, have decided to hold off on issuing a Wind
Advisory as the impacts will be subtle compared to the severe
weather that will impact most of the FA.

The potential for another round of severe weather continues to
increase on Tuesday as another wave moves trough with a stalled
frontal boundary. The CAMs show a MCS pushing across southeast
Missouri and western Kentucky Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. The thermodynamics support damaging wind and very large
hail with 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE and mid-level lapse rates
between 8.0-9.0 C/km. The tornado risk will be more isolated with
lower intensity compared to today, but 15 kts of sfc-1 km shear will
be enough to support a few spin ups. If the boundary shifts more
north and convection trends slower, convection would overlap with
the better 40 kt LLJ in the evening to support a higher risk.

Due to the potential for training convection, the risk of localized
Flash Flooding has increased with another 3 rounds of thunderstorms
expected through Tuesday evening. Total 48 hour rainfall is forecast
between 1.5 to 3.5 inches, with a 60-70% chance of 2 or more inches.
Given the ongoing drought conditions, flooding issues will be more
prone to the typical urban and low-lying locations that are more
sensitive with PWATs around 1.5 inches.

Dry and much cooler conditions return on Wednesday with a broad
trough aloft settling over the Ohio Valley. Daily slightly below
normal high temperatures range from the mid 60s to near 70
through Friday before trending warmer closer to normal next
weekend. There remains a 20-30% chance of light rain showers on
Friday. The GEFS is further north with a low pressure system
that tracks over the lower Mississippi River Valley with QPF
between 0.10 to 0.25 inches. Meanwhile, the EPS and GEPS keeps
this system more suppressed with very little rainfall. A dry
weekend then follows as sfc high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Shra/tsra possible at all TAF sites through 07z, and some
strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail are possible
between mainly 02z-07z. MVFR/IFR conditions possible with
storms. Away from storms and through the TAF period, VFR
conditions expected with cigs between 3500-9000, becoming SCT
after 08-11z. Winds from the south to southwest at 10-20kts
with gusts to 25-30kts will become northwest at 5-12kts after
08z, with decreasing speeds through the night. Shra/tsra return
very late in the TAF period at KCGI/KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...RST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1122 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281630-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1122 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026 /1222 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon
into tonight. Very large hail, greater than golfball size, strong
tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible. The greatest
threat seems to be in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
this evening.

Any storm today and tonight will produce torrential rainfall. A
flash flood threat could develop in areas that receive multiple
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Numerous strong to severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday evening. Very large hail and damaging winds will be
the main concerns, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Torrential rainfall could lead to an isolated flash flood threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed throughout the Quad State this
afternoon into tonight. Activation throughout the region may be
needed again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

ILZ084>086-088>090-092-093-MOZ086-087-111-272115-
Saline IL-Alexander IL-Jackson IL-Pope IL-Union IL-Williamson IL-
Johnson IL-Pulaski IL-Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-Scott MO-
346 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...AREA BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...

At 344 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers and developing
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Dongola to near
Chaffee. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

This activity is a zone of concern for rapid development for severe
storms in the next hour or so. Remain alert for possible warnings.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Girardeau, Marion, Jackson, Scott City, Anna, Chaffee,
Jonesboro, Marble Hill, Vienna, Oran, Benton, Bollinger Mill State
Historic Site, Trail Of Tears State Park, Cobden, Goreville, Dongola,
Tamms, Kelso, Creal Springs, and Delta.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 18.
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 13 and 50.
 Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 78 and 106.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southern
Illinois...and southeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 9004 3772 8892 3760 8851 3700 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 241DEG 37KT 3741 8917 3716 8971

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JGG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
643 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     Hail             4 WNW Mount Carmel      38.45N 87.84W
04/27/2026  E1.00 Inch       Wabash             IL   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     Hail             7 WNW Dale              38.21N 87.11W
04/27/2026  M1.25 Inch       Warrick            IN   Broadcast Media

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
706 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     Hail             2 W Browns              38.38N 88.02W
04/27/2026  E1.25 Inch       Edwards            IL   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
740 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

MOZ100-107-108-280145-
Carter MO-Wayne MO-Ripley MO-
740 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING CARTER...RIPLEY AND WESTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of
Eminence to near Gainesville. Movement was east at 45 mph.

These storms have a history of very large hail and conditions remain
supportive for tornadoes and damaging wind.

On their current track these storms would approach...
Fremont around 820 PM CDT.
  Van Buren around 825 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Grandin, Mill
Spring, and Briar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor local radio stations and available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9122 3710 9096 3705 9096 3705 9078
      3714 9078 3717 9074 3727 9073 3727 9055
      3732 9055 3732 9038 3693 9051 3692 9068
      3681 9066 3681 9063 3668 9063 3667 9059
      3650 9065 3650 9112 3682 9112 3683 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 266DEG 39KT 3723 9146 3655 9238

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JGG