Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
446 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms is on track to move east through the
  region this morning between 5AM to 12PM. A few storms may
  become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and a
  isolated tornado being the main risk. Between a half to one
  inch of rainfall is expected.

- Intervals of numerous showers and thunderstorms will move
  through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. The
  highest risk of widespread rain is Wednesday morning into
  Wednesday afternoon with a 70 to 80% chance of exceeding one
  inch. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms
  are all possible.

- Well above normal temperatures return to more seasonable
  during the latter half of the week. Quiet but breezy weather
  conditions are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of thunderstorms associated with a MCS will continue to grow
upscale this morning over Missouri before impacting the FA between
11 to 18z. Sfc low pressure continues to deepen over the Great
Lakes region and is allowing for an influx of moisture ahead of
a trailing cold front. MLCAPE is initially progged to be 800 to
1200 J/kg when convection arrives from the west with pockets of
300 to 600 J/kg of SBCAPE. Lapse rates will also be around 6.5
C/km with 35 to 45 kts of effective bulk shear along with 200 to
250 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Compared to yesterday, there is
slightly better instability and steeper lapse rates that may be
enough to fuel storms a bit longer.

The CAMs are in agreement that the line of storms will outrun the
better lift associated with the right entrance region of a 140 kt
jet max at 250 mb near STL. Better height falls will also be
occurring to the west with a 500 mb trough located over the central
Plains. While this would favor a weakening storm mode as convection
pushes east across the Mississippi, the parameters are high
enough to support a low end severe weather risk. Damaging wind
gusts remains the greatest concern with storms, but the latest
HRRR that has been consistent shows storms remaining more sfc
based with 30 kts of sfc-1km shear that would pose an isolated
tornado risk as well.

After the initial line moves through, stratiform rain will continue
for a few hours into the afternoon with rumbles of thunder.
Given PWAT's around 1.25 to 1.50 inches, heavy downpours may
lead to some minor flooding issues with ponding on roadways.
Between a half to one inch of rainfall is progged for most of
the FA. Fropa with the cold front eventually occurs Saturday
evening that will allow for more tranquil and cooler conditions
on Sunday.

The flow aloft turns more zonal to start off the new week
allowing for temperatures to quickly rebound with highs
potentially nearing 80 degrees again on Tuesday. While WAA
thundershowers may begin to develop late Monday into Monday
night, the main risk of numerous showers and thunderstorms does
not impact the FA until Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
afternoon when a 500 mb cutoff low ejects northeast into the
southern Plains and interacts with northern stream energy
digging across the Plains.

While Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night has been the focus
for some severe weather potential contingent on destabilization
with a discrete storm mode, some of the ML guidance continues to
suggest better instability and moisture may overlap on Wednesday.
Both the GFS/ECMWF show a line of storms plowing through ahead
of a cold front. Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon will
also pose the greatest risk of heavy rainfall with a 70 to 80%
chance of exceeding one inch. Overall, heavy rain, flash
flooding, and severe thunderstorms will all be possible. For the
latter half of the week, quiet but breezy conditions are
expected with temperatures returning to more seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 446 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Timing for a line of thunderstorms this morning remains about the
same across all terminals. Conditions will be the most favorable
for storms to turn strong to severe in the vicinity of
KCGI/KPAH. Stratiform rain and MVFR cigs lingers for a few
hours behind the initial line before tapering off late morning
into the early afternoon. There is still the possibility for a
few isolated gusty showers to redevelop towards the evening
along a cold front, but coverage is not widespread enough to
include mention. However, another round of MVFR cigs is
expected. Gusty south winds shift west to northwest behind the
cold front and turn light overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-080630-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 /122 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms will move into the region between 5AM to
12PM. A few of these storms could be severe, with damaging wind
gusts being the main threat. A brief, weak tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon. Some of these storms may be severe and also
pose a risk for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation cannot be ruled out this morning and may be
needed again Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
733 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MOZ109-071415-
Butler MO-
733 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BUTLER COUNTY THROUGH 815 AM
CST...

At 732 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fairdealing, or 12 miles east of Doniphan, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Poplar Bluff, Neelyville, Qulin, Fisk, Harviell, Milltown, and
Rombauer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9058 3668 9059 3668 9063 3681 9063
      3690 9025 3688 9026 3681 9020 3677 9020
      3668 9014 3668 9015 3662 9015 3659 9019
      3655 9018 3654 9021 3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 261DEG 44KT 3665 9061

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
842 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MOZ114-071515-
New Madrid MO-
842 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MADRID COUNTY
THROUGH 915 AM CST...

At 841 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gideon, or 8 miles southeast of Campbell, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Portageville, New Madrid, Lilbourn, Clarkton, Gideon, Parma, Marston,
Howardville, Risco, Tallapoosa, and Catron.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 33 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3640 8959 3641 8961 3640 8967 3643 8972
      3642 8974 3639 8975 3639 8997 3655 8996
      3663 8986 3663 8967 3658 8959 3648 8952
      3646 8952 3643 8955 3638 8951 3635 8952
      3634 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 1441Z 234DEG 47KT 3643 8994

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
906 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

ILZ091-KYZ010-014-015-071545-
Hardin IL-Crittenden KY-Webster KY-Union KY-
906 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HARDIN...
NORTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN...SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND WESTERN WEBSTER
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CST...

At 906 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Marion, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Sturgis, Clay, Dixon, Cave-in-Rock, and Wheatcroft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 8814 3747 8818 3768 8780 3746 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1506Z 239DEG 34KT 3743 8809

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
935 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

KYZ001-002-006-071615-
Graves KY-Fulton KY-Hickman KY-
935 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FULTON...
SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAVES COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM
CST...

At 935 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cayce, or near Union City, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Hickman, Cayce, Lynnville, Sedalia, Water Valley, and
Dukedom.

This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 1 and
12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 8915 3657 8916 3666 8856 3650 8856
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 260DEG 46KT 3650 8906

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
951 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

KYZ005>008-011-071615-
Marshall KY-McCracken KY-Graves KY-Lyon KY-Livingston KY-
951 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON...
CENTRAL MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN...NORTHEASTERN GRAVES AND
SOUTHWESTERN LYON COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM CST...

At 950 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Reidland, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Benton, Calvert City, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay
Campground, Hillman Ferry Campground, Reidland, Land Between The
Lakes Area, Grand Rivers, and Symsonia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 18 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 40 and 51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 8859 3697 8860 3706 8816 3687 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 256DEG 45KT 3691 8848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SP

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