Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
446 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms is on track to move east through the
  region this morning between 5AM to 12PM. A few storms may
  become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and a
  isolated tornado being the main risk. Between a half to one
  inch of rainfall is expected.

- Intervals of numerous showers and thunderstorms will move
  through Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon. The
  highest risk of widespread rain is Wednesday morning into
  Wednesday afternoon with a 70 to 80% chance of exceeding one
  inch. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms
  are all possible.

- Well above normal temperatures return to more seasonable
  during the latter half of the week. Quiet but breezy weather
  conditions are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A line of thunderstorms associated with a MCS will continue to grow
upscale this morning over Missouri before impacting the FA between
11 to 18z. Sfc low pressure continues to deepen over the Great
Lakes region and is allowing for an influx of moisture ahead of
a trailing cold front. MLCAPE is initially progged to be 800 to
1200 J/kg when convection arrives from the west with pockets of
300 to 600 J/kg of SBCAPE. Lapse rates will also be around 6.5
C/km with 35 to 45 kts of effective bulk shear along with 200 to
250 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Compared to yesterday, there is
slightly better instability and steeper lapse rates that may be
enough to fuel storms a bit longer.

The CAMs are in agreement that the line of storms will outrun the
better lift associated with the right entrance region of a 140 kt
jet max at 250 mb near STL. Better height falls will also be
occurring to the west with a 500 mb trough located over the central
Plains. While this would favor a weakening storm mode as convection
pushes east across the Mississippi, the parameters are high
enough to support a low end severe weather risk. Damaging wind
gusts remains the greatest concern with storms, but the latest
HRRR that has been consistent shows storms remaining more sfc
based with 30 kts of sfc-1km shear that would pose an isolated
tornado risk as well.

After the initial line moves through, stratiform rain will continue
for a few hours into the afternoon with rumbles of thunder.
Given PWAT's around 1.25 to 1.50 inches, heavy downpours may
lead to some minor flooding issues with ponding on roadways.
Between a half to one inch of rainfall is progged for most of
the FA. Fropa with the cold front eventually occurs Saturday
evening that will allow for more tranquil and cooler conditions
on Sunday.

The flow aloft turns more zonal to start off the new week
allowing for temperatures to quickly rebound with highs
potentially nearing 80 degrees again on Tuesday. While WAA
thundershowers may begin to develop late Monday into Monday
night, the main risk of numerous showers and thunderstorms does
not impact the FA until Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
afternoon when a 500 mb cutoff low ejects northeast into the
southern Plains and interacts with northern stream energy
digging across the Plains.

While Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night has been the focus
for some severe weather potential contingent on destabilization
with a discrete storm mode, some of the ML guidance continues to
suggest better instability and moisture may overlap on Wednesday.
Both the GFS/ECMWF show a line of storms plowing through ahead
of a cold front. Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon will
also pose the greatest risk of heavy rainfall with a 70 to 80%
chance of exceeding one inch. Overall, heavy rain, flash
flooding, and severe thunderstorms will all be possible. For the
latter half of the week, quiet but breezy conditions are
expected with temperatures returning to more seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 446 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Timing for a line of thunderstorms this morning remains about the
same across all terminals. Conditions will be the most favorable
for storms to turn strong to severe in the vicinity of
KCGI/KPAH. Stratiform rain and MVFR cigs lingers for a few
hours behind the initial line before tapering off late morning
into the early afternoon. There is still the possibility for a
few isolated gusty showers to redevelop towards the evening
along a cold front, but coverage is not widespread enough to
include mention. However, another round of MVFR cigs is
expected. Gusty south winds shift west to northwest behind the
cold front and turn light overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-080630-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026 /122 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms will move into the region between 5AM to
12PM. A few of these storms could be severe, with damaging wind
gusts being the main threat. A brief, weak tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Another round of thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon. Some of these storms may be severe and also
pose a risk for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation cannot be ruled out this morning and may be
needed again Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

DW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
504 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MOZ100-071130-
Wayne MO-
504 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY
THROUGH 530 AM CST...

At 504 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lodi, or near Sam A. Baker State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sam A. Baker State Park, Lodi, and Cascade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9022 3716 9022 3717 9053 3732 9054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 242DEG 48KT 3728 9042

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
513 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MOZ076-086-071200-
Bollinger MO-Perry MO-
513 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOLLINGER AND PERRY COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 AM CST...

At 512 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Coffman to 7 miles north of Shook.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chester, Perryville, Marble Hill, St. Mary, Patton, Leopold,
Alliance, Grassy, Sedgewickville, Zalma, Lithium, Glenallen, and
Silver Lake.

This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 122 and 139.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3788 8980 3785 8979 3784 8973 3761 8980
      3760 8986 3713 8987 3713 8996 3706 8996
      3706 8999 3704 9000 3708 9011 3709 9022
      3731 9021 3732 9014 3764 9015 3787 8995
      3787 8990 3791 8984
TIME...MOT...LOC 1112Z 267DEG 39KT 3782 9018 3714 9031

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ATL

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