Severe Thunderstorm Warning 577, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Strong to severe storms this evening and overnight across the
  area with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary
  hazards.

- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns this
  weekend, especially where recent higher amounts of rain has
  already fallen.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the wake of this morning's shower and storm activity, a MCV
developed just north of I-40 in west central Oklahoma and is moving
eastward through this afternoon. If this weak MCV can persist
eastward through the afternoon hours across central into east
central Oklahoma, temperatures will warm and instability will
increase with low chances for an isolated shower or storm to
develop. The best chances for this to occur would be across east
central Oklahoma.

Outside of the MCV, skies have cleared elsewhere across most of the
area this morning with scattered to broken cumulus likely to develop
through the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the 90s today and
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s, humid conditions will
persist and widespread heat indices of 100 to 106 degrees will be
possible. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through 7 PM
across portions of northern and north central Oklahoma.

An upper shortwave across the Northern Plains will drive the surface
low near the Colorado/Kansas border southward. An associated cold
front that is currently draped from roughly Goodland northeast
towards Omaha. This front will push southward late this evening
across Kansas and towards northern Oklahoma and bring increasing
rain and storm chances. Isolated storms may initially develop along
the front in Kansas and portions of northern Oklahoma this evening
with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Despite the tornado potential being very low, there is a nonzero
chance that a storm initially latched onto the front could experience
enough low-level shear along the boundary to produce a tornado. This
potential will be mostly confined to Kansas, but will also exist
across northern Oklahoma. As the front continues to push southward
overnight, the low-level jet will increase and storms will likely
grow upscale with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Towards the
early morning hours Sunday, the cold front will likely race ahead of
the storms as they begin to lose severity with gusty winds and small
hail as the primary concern as the activity decays.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Expect a cooler and cloudy post-frontal conditions Sunday with highs
in the 70s. The cold front may still be vacating far southern
Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday morning, which means lingering
showers and storms are possible. Depending on where the front is
situated by the afternoon hours, there may be a few strong to severe
storms that develop along the surface front. Current forecast
thoughts are that the front will be just south of the Red River and
keep most of the stronger storms to our south, closer to DFW area.

A weak shortwave in the westerly flow aloft, coupled with ample
moisture in the atmospheric column, will give way to scattered
showers to develop in the moist stable post-frontal airmass across
central into southern Oklahoma. A few embedded rumbles of thunder
due to very weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out.

By Monday northwesterly flow will persist aloft, while the surface
high in the wake of the front will push into the Arklatex region and
keep temperatures on the cooler side for the start of the work week.
Highs will be below normal in the 70s to lower 80s. Mostly dry
conditions Monday with only a slight chance for some lingering
showers across portions of far southern Oklahoma into western north
Texas during the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After another cool morning Tuesday a quick warming trend is expected
with highs once again in the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday and windy
and hot by Wednesday with highs climbing above 100 degrees along and
north of I-44. Probably a return of heat headlines by this time as
well. Hopefully this extreme heat will be rather short-lived as
models show another front and additional rain chances as we go
toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Areas of thunderstorms will gradually make their way south through
Oklahoma and north Texas through the night, bringing gusty erratic
winds and reduced visibilities due to heavy rain with them. MVFR
ceilings may accompany storms and the associated front. Northerly
winds with a slight breeze will fill in behind the front today.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  61  78  61 /  50  20   0   0
Hobart OK         77  61  80  60 /  60  30  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  83  64  81  62 /  60  40  20  10
Gage OK           75  57  79  58 /  40  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     76  59  79  61 /  10  10   0   0
Durant OK         83  67  80  66 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ007-008-012-013-140515-
Garfield OK-Kay OK-Grant OK-Noble OK-
1141 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Kay,
northwestern Noble, southern Grant and northern Garfield Counties
through 1215 AM CDT...

At 1140 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Marland to 3 miles northeast of
Carrier. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Enid, Tonkawa, Pond Creek, Garber, Billings, Lamont, Kremlin,
Breckenridge, Hunter, Jefferson, North Enid, and Ceres.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9709 3640 9795 3675 9802 3673 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 309DEG 24KT 3658 9726 3650 9797

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Meister

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

OKZ016-021-022-033>037-TXZ083>085-140530-
Harmon OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Washita OK-Beckham OK-Greer OK-
Custer OK-Jackson OK-Foard TX-Wilbarger TX-Hardeman TX-
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Washita,
Jackson, southwestern Custer, western Kiowa, northwestern Tillman,
southern Harmon, Greer, southeastern Beckham, northwestern Foard,
northwestern Wilbarger and northern Hardeman Counties through 1230 AM
CDT...

At 1155 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of winds
from strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 4 miles
northeast of Childress to 4 miles northwest of Blair. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Hobart, Mangum, Cordell, Quanah, Hollis, Granite, Burns Flat,
Sentinel, Blair, Olustee, Dill City, Canute, Eldorado, Lone Wolf,
Roosevelt, Bessie, Martha, Rocky, and Foss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3467 10000
      3490 9963 3548 9934 3547 9891 3457 9900
      3413 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 333DEG 25KT 3447 10019 3483 9938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Meister