Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
543 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Hot & muggy conditions expected again this afternoon and
  evening, with heat indices near and above 100-110 degrees,
  especially across northern and north central Oklahoma.

- Strong to severe storms this evening and overnight across the
  area with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary
  hazards.

- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding concerns this
  weekend, especially where recent higher amounts of rain has
  already fallen.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the wake of this morning's shower and storm activity, a MCV
developed just north of I-40 in west central Oklahoma and is moving
eastward through this afternoon. If this weak MCV can persist
eastward through the afternoon hours across central into east
central Oklahoma, temperatures will warm and instability will
increase with low chances for an isolated shower or storm to
develop. The best chances for this to occur would be across east
central Oklahoma.

Outside of the MCV, skies have cleared elsewhere across most of the
area this morning with scattered to broken cumulus likely to develop
through the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the 90s today and
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s, humid conditions will
persist and widespread heat indices of 100 to 106 degrees will be
possible. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through 7 PM
across portions of northern and north central Oklahoma.

An upper shortwave across the Northern Plains will drive the surface
low near the Colorado/Kansas border southward. An associated cold
front that is currently draped from roughly Goodland northeast
towards Omaha. This front will push southward late this evening
across Kansas and towards northern Oklahoma and bring increasing
rain and storm chances. Isolated storms may initially develop along
the front in Kansas and portions of northern Oklahoma this evening
with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Despite the tornado potential being very low, there is a nonzero
chance that a storm initially latched onto the front could experience
enough low-level shear along the boundary to produce a tornado. This
potential will be mostly confined to Kansas, but will also exist
across northern Oklahoma. As the front continues to push southward
overnight, the low-level jet will increase and storms will likely
grow upscale with damaging winds as the primary hazard. Towards the
early morning hours Sunday, the cold front will likely race ahead of
the storms as they begin to lose severity with gusty winds and small
hail as the primary concern as the activity decays.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Expect a cooler and cloudy post-frontal conditions Sunday with highs
in the 70s. The cold front may still be vacating far southern
Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday morning, which means lingering
showers and storms are possible. Depending on where the front is
situated by the afternoon hours, there may be a few strong to severe
storms that develop along the surface front. Current forecast
thoughts are that the front will be just south of the Red River and
keep most of the stronger storms to our south, closer to DFW area.

A weak shortwave in the westerly flow aloft, coupled with ample
moisture in the atmospheric column, will give way to scattered
showers to develop in the moist stable post-frontal airmass across
central into southern Oklahoma. A few embedded rumbles of thunder
due to very weak elevated instability cannot be ruled out.

By Monday northwesterly flow will persist aloft, while the surface
high in the wake of the front will push into the Arklatex region and
keep temperatures on the cooler side for the start of the work week.
Highs will be below normal in the 70s to lower 80s. Mostly dry
conditions Monday with only a slight chance for some lingering
showers across portions of far southern Oklahoma into western north
Texas during the morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

After another cool morning Tuesday a quick warming trend is expected
with highs once again in the upper 80s and low 90s Tuesday and windy
and hot by Wednesday with highs climbing above 100 degrees along and
north of I-44. Probably a return of heat headlines by this time as
well. Hopefully this extreme heat will be rather short-lived as
models show another front and additional rain chances as we go
toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR skies at the moment as cumulus wane with the loss of daytime
heating. The primary aviation challenge tonight will be showers
and thunderstorms that develop along a southward-progressing cold
front. These storms will be in northern and northwestern Oklahoma
as early as 0Z, with the primary band shifting toward I-44 after
06Z. Winds will shift northerly behind the cold front and remain
that way for the rest of the TAF period, with MVFR/IFR stratus
likely in the morning. Redevelopment of thunderstorms in south
central Oklahoma is expected by late morning/early afternoon.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  75  61  78 / 100  50  20   0
Hobart OK         66  77  61  80 /  80  60  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  71  83  64  81 /  30  60  40  20
Gage OK           60  75  57  79 /  90  40  10  10
Ponca City OK     66  76  59  79 / 100  10  10   0
Durant OK         76  83  67  80 /  60  90  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     018>020.

TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04

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