Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
255 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
NYC added to flood watch.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of showers with embedded thunderstorms through late
this afternoon into early this evening. Rainfall will be heavy
at times. A Flood Watch is in effect for northern New Jersey and
NYC through early this evening.

2) High surf and high rip current risk expected for the ocean
beaches through this evening.

3) Unsettled weather at times once again Wednesday and Thursday
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
No big changes in the forecast today as an upper trough and
associated surface frontal system interact with anomalously
high precipitable water (PW). Much of the guidance, as is
supported by latest mesoanalysis, support PW values falling
just short of 2.5". This will not be too far off from the all-
time high of 2.62" August 19, 1955.

00Z HREF and WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard (URRD) show the peak
rainfall window across the area this morning into early this
evening. Both show about a 30 percent membership of hourly
rainfall rates of 1"+. Once you go higher than that, the
probabilities fall off to almost 0. That being said, the
combination of a moisture-laden airmass along with large scale
synoptic lift, points to several hours of moderate to heavy
rainfall along with possible south to north training. As such,
NYC was added to the flood watch for NE NJ. Elsewhere, 1-hour
FFG is nearly 2 inches, so have held off. There could still be
isolated instances of flash flooding outside the watch area. WPC
still has most of the area under a slight risk of excessive
rainfall.

Coverage will likely decrease from west to east this afternoon
as the vertical wind profile begins to veer to the SW with
drier air moving in. A cold front will then pass through late
this afternoon into early this evening.

SPC also has the area under a marginal risk for severe weather
with a 5% for the wind threat. Mid level lapse rates are
generally less than 6c (weak), but there is moderate CAPE and
decent vertical wind shear to support something isolated.

High pressure and dry weather is on tap for Tuesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday through
Friday as the western Atlantic ridge retrogrades, sending the
dissipating frontal boundary into the area.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Both Wavewatch and NWPS guidance have long period southerly
swells of 8-11 ft 9s today which supports a high surf advisory
for the ocean beaches and dangerous rip currents in the surf
zone. Surf will range from 6 to 10 ft, highest across the
Suffolk County ocean beaches.

There could be another high risk of rip currents for Suffolk
ocean beaches Tuesday with otherwise a moderate risk of rip
currents for the ocean beaches. For Tuesday, the winds will be
decreasing to near 5-10 kt from northerly in the morning to more
southerly in the afternoon. Ocean southerly swells decrease
Tuesday to near 4 ft with near 7 second period.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday through
Thursday as the western Atlantic ridge retrogrades, sending the
dissipating frontal boundary into the area. PW values will close
in on 2 inches. Localized heavy rainfall will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow moving frontal system will impact the terminals through
Monday. A weak warm front continues to push north tonight, followed
by a cold frontal passage Monday evening.

Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions continue into Monday morning.
Thunderstorm chances increase after 06Z. LIFR conditions are likely
for KGON and possible for KISP into early Monday morning. All
terminals becoming MVFR late Monday morning and then gradually VFR
through the day from west to east.

Southerly winds increase to 10 to 15 kt tonight. Coastal
terminals may gust up to 20-25 kt tonight, highest confidence
is at KISP. Gusts pick back up to 20 to 25 kt by Monday morning
for all terminals and likely last through the afternoon. Winds
lower to 10 kt or below and become N/NW Monday evening behind
the cold frontal passage. Low chance of LLWS for KISP and KGON
early Monday morning into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD likely with changing flight cats through the TAF period.

Most likely TSRA timing is included in TEMPO groups. An isolated
thunderstorm outside of those times can not be completely ruled out,
mainly after 06z Monday through Monday evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Becoming VFR. Winds shifting to the NW-N at 5-10 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Friday: Sub-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions are forecast for the ocean and some
eastern non-ocean zones today with south winds of 15 to 25 kt
and gusts up to 30 kt. Highest winds will be across the eastern
ocean waters. Challenge is how much of the winds aloft get down
to the surface. A few gusts to 35 kt on the eastern ocean
waters can't be ruled out. Small craft conditions will likely
continue for the ocean through tonight as the winds veer more to
the SW and seas remaining elevated around 5 to 7 ft. Sub
advisory conditions should develop thereafter.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ072>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch through this evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.

&&

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
207 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>074-176-040615-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-
207 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-178-040615-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
207 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-078-079-177-040615-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
207 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance of localized to scattered instances of flash
flooding into early this evening.

There is a chance for flash flooding late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-179-040615-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
207 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

There is a chance for flash flooding late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385-040615-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
207 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
113 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

NYZ067-030600-
Orange NY-
113 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 112 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pellettown, or 8 miles northeast of Newton, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Florida around 150 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4141 7440 4130 7422 4122 7439 4129 7455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 228DEG 23KT 4115 7465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Goodman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
524 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

CTZ005-NYZ068-070-031015-
Northern Fairfield CT-Putnam NY-Northern Westchester NY-
524 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...EASTERN
PUTNAM AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EDT...

At 524 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mount Kisco, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Yorktown Heights around 530 AM EDT.
  Danbury and Ridgefield around 545 AM EDT.
  Brewster around 550 AM EDT.
  New Fairfield around 555 AM EDT.
  Brookfield around 600 AM EDT.
  Bethel around 605 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4153 7345 4149 7344 4151 7339 4149 7337
      4147 7332 4147 7330 4145 7330 4145 7328
      4143 7326 4144 7325 4142 7322 4104 7383
      4121 7392 4153 7357 4153 7353 4157 7353
      4161 7348
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 223DEG 28KT 4120 7376

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Goodman

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