Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS New York, NY

198 
WGUS71 KOKX 212254
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
654 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

NYC005-059-081-103-212304-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260721T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bronx NY-Nassau NY-Queens NY-Suffolk NY-
654 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BRONX, NORTHERN NASSAU, 
QUEENS AND WEST CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTIES...

Heavy rain has ended. Please continue to heed remaining road 
closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 7375 4085 7375 4088 7371 4087 7366
      4091 7364 4094 7334 4095 7329 4094 7327
      4073 7333 4073 7376 4078 7390 4088 7376

$$

Goodman

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
117 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of heavy downpours and thunderstorms today
into this evening. Scattered instances of flash flooding
through this evening, with locally severe flash flooding
possible. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm threat
through this afternoon, potential for more widespread severe
threat this evening, particularly NYC/NJ metro and areas to the
west.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches
today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Midday Update...Scattered to numerous heavy downpours and
scattered thunderstorms expected to move west to east through
late afternoon ahead of approaching warm front and strengthening
llj. Uncertainty on how far north the warm front gets through
the region this afternoon. The warm front would act as a focus
for training thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening,
bringing potential for more widespread flash flooding and
localized severe flash flooding with environment conducive to
rainfall rates in excess of 3"/hr. Flood Watch expanded into
Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT to address the more widespread
flash flood threat, and high-res model signal.

This activity would also reduce the severe threat from
approaching organized thunderstorm activity this evening
(5-9pm). If the warm front moves to the north and the area can
see a break in shower/thunderstorm activity late this afternoon,
the potential increases for upstream developing organized
severe thunderstorms activity to maintain itself into at least
western portions of the region between 5 and 9p. Damaging wind
gusts would be the main severe threat, but environment is
conducive to isolated brief tornadoes development as well.

Otherwise...a primary low pressure center tracks east through
SE Canada today into Wednesday. A weak secondary low along a
warm front shifts near the western portion of the forecast area
this afternoon - more likely towards late day. A trailing cold
front then slowly moves through during Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Rainfall expected today into a portion of tonight with
rain chances overall lower during Wednesday.

Severe weather will be possible with sufficient wind and speed shear
with CAPE increasing as the day wears on. A mitigating factor for
severe storms at least this morning into very early afternoon looks
to be only modest CAPE. It won't be until mid to late afternoon when
CAPE increases more significantly with the approach and passage of
the weak low and warm front, which will also enhance helicity and
promote severe weather. CAMs are not exactly in agreement regarding
the most likely time periods of showers/storms during the daytime
hours - only that shower chances begin to ramp up after around 8-9am
over western portions. There is at least better agreement for a
period of showers and potential storms towards sundown and into the
evening hours. By this time however, instability will be diminishing.
So while severe weather could occur as early as around noontime, it
appears that it would more likely to occur in the late afternoon to
early evening hours. Damaging winds would be the most likely
impacts, but a low chance of large hail or a tornado still exist.
SPC's severe weather outlook for today is basically unchanged from
yesterday afternoon with most of the area within a slight risk and a
portion of NE NJ with an enhanced risk. CAPE and shear won't be as
high for the most part on Wednesday, but can't rule out strong to
severe gusts during this period with SPC showing a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms for most of the area.

PWATs will be 2.00 to 2.25 inches and rainfall rates of mostly 1-2
inches per hour will be possible, but may be up to 2.50 inches per
hour. No changes made to the Flood Watch as flash flooding is
expected mainly in more urbanized and poor drainage areas. There are
some signals of high rainfall rates over portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley, but given current FFG values, didn't think that the
probability was high enough to expand the watch in area. Orange and
Rockland Counties were considered for expansion. WPC has the entire
area within a slight risk of flash flooding today into tonight.
Flooding impacts could begin as early as around noontime for some
areas with the threat dropping off by midnight for most areas.
Impacts are not anticipated for Wednesday. Current rainfall forecast
for today through Wednesday has most of the area at 1 to 2 inches,
but locally 3+ inches are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*High Impact Aviation Weather Day Today*

A frontal system impacts the region today, bringing several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Conditions have decline dto MVFR with SHRA/TSRA scattered across
the area. A more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms
impact the terminals later this afternoon and evening, which
may persist into the first part of tonight. The primary concern
with any thunderstorms will be the strong gusty winds, which
could see gusts up to 50kt or greater. IFR or lower conditions
will be possible this afternoon through the tonight especially
for terminals east of NYC. After SHRA/TSRA clears by 3Z-6Z,
still anticipating MVFR/IFR conditions. We'll improve to VFR by
15Z tomorrow.

Southerly flow continues 10-15kt G20-25kt. S/SE after sunrise
with speeds 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Wind gusts diminish
tonight, but speeds remain around 10kt or so with winds becoming
SW. Tomorrow, winds W/WSW 10-15kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA/TSRA today could be off by a couple of hours.

IFR or lower possible at times in SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained southerly winds average around 15kt today and increase
tonight. Gusts 25-30kt expected on some of the area waters today and
tonight with the ocean likely still seeing advisory-level gusts into
Wednesday. Seas here will also remain elevated through Weds.
SCA continues for the ocean and some of the non-ocean waters today
and tonight. Some of the non-ocean zones might not be seeing SCA
conds for a good portion of Wednesday, but not enough confidence at
this point to shorten the advisory. SCA might need to be extended in
time for the ocean for lingering 5+ft seas.

Rip Currents:
A high rip current risk is expected Tuesday through Wednesday
with no headline changes. Some areas could come close to high
surf criteria, mainly tonight into Wednesday. A high surf
advisory could eventually be needed, however by the time the
swell height and period increase, the swell direction becomes
less orthogonal to the coastline, limiting the threat high surf
conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005-006-009.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-350-
     353-355.

&&

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

CTZ005-006-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-176-221815-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern Fairfield-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ078-079-221815-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-178-221815-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ010-NYZ177-221815-
Southern New Haven-Northern Nassau-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TORNADO WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ179-221815-
Southern Nassau-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-221815-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355-221815-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ335-338-221815-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TORNADO WATCH 507 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ380-383-385-221815-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
209 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
231 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Flash Flood      2 SW Hamden             41.35N 72.93W
07/21/2026                   New Haven          CT   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Stranded vehicles due to floodwaters in
            Hamden.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
329 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     Flood            Branford                41.27N 72.81W
07/21/2026                   New Haven          CT   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding, also
            reported via 511.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Paterson           40.93N 74.14W
07/21/2026                   Passaic            NJ   Public

            Downed pole on NJ 20 in both directiosn at
            Passaic CR 651. All lanes closed in both
            directions.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

CTZ009-NJZ006-104-NYZ071>073-176>179-212045-
Southern Fairfield CT-Hudson NJ-Eastern Bergen NJ-Northern Queens NY-
Southern Queens NY-Southern Westchester NY-Bronx NY-
New York (Manhattan) NY-Northern Nassau NY-Southern Nassau NY-
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...HUDSON...
SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...QUEENS...BRONX...NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN) AND NORTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Norwood to Brooklyn Heights. Movement was east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jamaica, Yonkers, New Rochelle, Flushing, White Plains, Mott Haven,
Hoboken, East Tremont, Hackensack, Port Chester, Glen Cove,
Bergenfield, Garden City, Mineola, and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for southern
Connecticut...northeastern New Jersey...and southeastern New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4069 7406 4102 7406 4103 7397 4100 7389
      4105 7380 4108 7357 4099 7358 4100 7359
      4097 7362 4097 7365 4090 7374 4088 7374
      4086 7366 4092 7364 4092 7359 4072 7361
      4070 7391 4074 7395 4071 7397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 259DEG 22KT 4100 7396 4069 7400

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

NV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     Flash Flood      Valhalla                41.08N 73.78W
07/21/2026                   Westchester        NY   Broadcast Media

            Road Closure on Taconic State Parkway both
            directions between Lakeview Avenue (Mount
            Pleasant) and Commerce Street (Mount
            Pleasant) all lanes of 4 lanes closed MM
            1.6.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
417 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     Flash Flood      1 NW Elmsford           41.06N 73.82W
07/21/2026                   Westchester        NY   Broadcast Media

            DOT Flooding and Road Closure on Saw Mill
            River Parkway both directions at Exit 22 -
            I-287 (Greenburgh) all lanes of 4 lanes
            closed MM 11.1.

&&