Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1219 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood Watch expanded into Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT through
2am.

Otherwise, no significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of heavy downpours and thunderstorms today
into this evening. Scattered instances of flash flooding
through this evening, with locally severe flash flooding
possible. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm threat
through this afternoon, potential for more widespread severe
threat this evening, particularly NYC/NJ metro and areas to the
west.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches
today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...

Midday Update...Scattered to numerous heavy downpours and
scattered thunderstorms expected to move west to east through
late afternoon ahead of approaching warm front and strengthening
llj. Uncertainty on how far north the warm front gets through
the region this afternoon. The warm front would act as a focus
for training thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening,
bringing potential for more widespread flash flooding and
localized severe flash flooding with environment conducive to
rainfall rates in excess of 3"/hr. Flood Watch expanded into
Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT to address the more widespread
flash flood threat, and high-res model signal.

This activity would also reduce the severe threat from
approaching organized thunderstorm activity this evening
(5-9pm). If the warm front moves to the north and the area can
see a break in shower/thunderstorm activity late this afternoon,
the potential increases for upstream developing organized
severe thunderstorms activity to maintain itself into at least
western portions of the region between 5 and 9p. Damaging wind
gusts would be the main severe threat, but environment is
conducive to isolated brief tornadoes development as well.

Otherwise...a primary low pressure center tracks east through
SE Canada today into Wednesday. A weak secondary low along a
warm front shifts near the western portion of the forecast area
this afternoon - more likely towards late day. A trailing cold
front then slowly moves through during Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Rainfall expected today into a portion of tonight with
rain chances overall lower during Wednesday.

Severe weather will be possible with sufficient wind and speed shear
with CAPE increasing as the day wears on. A mitigating factor for
severe storms at least this morning into very early afternoon looks
to be only modest CAPE. It won't be until mid to late afternoon when
CAPE increases more significantly with the approach and passage of
the weak low and warm front, which will also enhance helicity and
promote severe weather. CAMs are not exactly in agreement regarding
the most likely time periods of showers/storms during the daytime
hours - only that shower chances begin to ramp up after around 8-9am
over western portions. There is at least better agreement for a
period of showers and potential storms towards sundown and into the
evening hours. By this time however, instability will be diminishing.
So while severe weather could occur as early as around noontime, it
appears that it would more likely to occur in the late afternoon to
early evening hours. Damaging winds would be the most likely
impacts, but a low chance of large hail or a tornado still exist.
SPC's severe weather outlook for today is basically unchanged from
yesterday afternoon with most of the area within a slight risk and a
portion of NE NJ with an enhanced risk. CAPE and shear won't be as
high for the most part on Wednesday, but can't rule out strong to
severe gusts during this period with SPC showing a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms for most of the area.

PWATs will be 2.00 to 2.25 inches and rainfall rates of mostly 1-2
inches per hour will be possible, but may be up to 2.50 inches per
hour. No changes made to the Flood Watch as flash flooding is
expected mainly in more urbanized and poor drainage areas. There are
some signals of high rainfall rates over portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley, but given current FFG values, didn't think that the
probability was high enough to expand the watch in area. Orange and
Rockland Counties were considered for expansion. WPC has the entire
area within a slight risk of flash flooding today into tonight.
Flooding impacts could begin as early as around noontime for some
areas with the threat dropping off by midnight for most areas.
Impacts are not anticipated for Wednesday. Current rainfall forecast
for today through Wednesday has most of the area at 1 to 2 inches,
but locally 3+ inches are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*High Impact Aviation Weather Day Today*

A frontal system impacts the region today, bringing several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

A warm front moves across the area terminals this morning,
bringing a round of SHRA/TSRA, with the best chances NW of the
NYC terminals. Conditions likely decline to MVFR in this
activity, before a more widespread round of showers and
thunderstorms impact the terminals during the afternoon and
evening, which likely persists into the first part of tonight.
The primary concern with any thunderstorms will be the strong
gusty winds, which could see gusts up to 50kt or greater. IFR or
lower conditions will be possible this afternoon through the
tonight especially for terminals east of NYC.

Southerly flow at or under 10 kt becomes S/SE after sunrise
with speeds 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Wind gusts diminish
tonight, but speeds remain around 10kt or so.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA/TSRA today could be off by a couple of hours.

IFR or lower possible at times in SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday - Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained southerly winds average around 15kt today and increase
tonight. Gusts 25-30kt expected on some of the area waters today and
tonight with the ocean likely still seeing advisory-level gusts into
Wednesday. Seas here will also remain elevated through Weds.
SCA continues for the ocean and some of the non-ocean waters today
and tonight. Some of the non-ocean zones might not be seeing SCA
conds for a good portion of Wednesday, but not enough confidence at
this point to shorten the advisory. SCA might need to be extended in
time for the ocean for lingering 5+ft seas.

Rip Currents:
A high rip current risk is expected Tuesday through Wednesday
with no headline changes. Some areas could come close to high
surf criteria, mainly tonight into Wednesday. A high surf
advisory could eventually be needed, however by the time the
swell height and period increase, the swell direction becomes
less orthogonal to the coastline, limiting the threat high surf
conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005-006-009.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-350-
     353-355.

&&

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>074-176-221000-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Northern Queens-
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through this evening. There is potential for scattered severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ067>071-078-079-177-221000-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Northern Nassau-
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through this evening. There is potential for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-178-221000-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Queens-
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   Flood Watch.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through this evening. There is potential for scattered severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-081-179-221000-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Nassau-
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through this evening. There is potential for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-221000-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 NM-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 NM-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM-
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through this evening. There is potential for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ380-383-385-221000-
Waters from Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY from 20 to 60 nm-
Waters from Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY from 20 to 60 nm-
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
through this evening. There is potential for isolated to scattered
severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1119 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Shrub Oak               41.33N 73.82W
07/21/2026                   Westchester        NY   Public

            Old Yorktown Road closed due to trees down
            with wires between Buckhorn St and Wildwood
            St.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1130 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Buchanan           41.28N 73.97W
07/21/2026                   Rockland           NY   Dept of Highways

            Tree Down and Road Closure on US 9W both
            directions north of Thunder Mountain Rd.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1142 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     Flash Flood      2 S Suffern             41.09N 74.14W
07/21/2026                   Bergen             NJ   Emergency Mngr

            Franklin Turnpike is flooded south of
            Mahwah.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1217 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     Flash Flood      2 ENE Hartsdale         41.04N 73.78W
07/21/2026                   Westchester        NY   Dept of Highways

            NY100 all lanes blocked.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1218 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     Hail             1 N Saddle Brook        40.92N 74.09W
07/21/2026  M0.88 Inch       Bergen             NJ   Public

            Nickel size hail.

&&