Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Independence
  Day.

- Scattered storms could produce damaging wind gusts, torrential
  downpours, and small hail during the afternoon and early evening
  today and again Saturday.

- The forecast for next week is not as hot, but very warm and
  humid with medium chances for showers and storms each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Overall, atmospheric conditions are very similar to yesterday,
with perhaps a smidge less instability today. CAMs did a pretty
good job yesterday with storms forming along I-65 then drifting
westward. Today, they show generally greater coverage of showers
and storms area-wide with the main focus along and just east of
I-65. Once again, damaging wind gusts, hail, and local flash
flooding will be a concern. CAPE will reach 4,000+ with 1,200
DCAPE, above average PW, and mainly cold-pool driven storm
motion/development. Storms will die off pretty quickly around
sunset. The dangerous heat continues with peak heat index values
reaching 105-100 again this afternoon. Tonight will be muggy and
uncomfortable with local patchy fog.

As we get to Saturday (Independence Day), the upper high will
weaken and move eastward. This means temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler. Although temps will back off, the heat and
humidity combination will keep conditions potentially dangerous
with so many people doing outdoors stuff. A Heat Advisory will
remain in place til fireworks time. Those outdoor activities will
be potentially impacted by scattered storms. Severe parameters do
not look as threatening for Saturday, but a few strong storms
with gusty winds and downpours will be possible in the heat of the
afternoon and early evening. Models suggest the showers and storms
may linger a little longer after sunset which isn't great news
for fireworks. We will just have to wait and monitor radar trends
at the time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Heat will back off for next week as the big upper high is
replaced with a general weak troughing pattern with some
disturbances glancing the area. Temps and humidity will be closer
to normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Expect daily
medium shower and storm chances with the highest chances each
afternoon and evening. There doesn't appear to be any organized
severe threat, but like we've seen the past couple of days, the
strongest storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts, small
hail, and very heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

TAFs focus on storm chances for this afternoon across Middle
Tennessee. Surface gusts are possible due to risk of microbursts.
Most activity should focus 20-23z for BNA, MQY, and CKV. Perhaps
a little earlier near CSV as tcu is already surrounding the
airport. Patchy fog will be possible at CSV and SRB overnight. Sct
afternoon TS is expected again tomorrow afternoon with light and
variable winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  95  75  94 /  30  40  50  70
Clarksville    75  95  74  93 /  30  50  50  60
Crossville     70  90  70  88 /  20  30  40  70
Columbia       73  95  72  93 /  30  30  30  70
Cookeville     72  91  71  90 /  20  30  40  60
Jamestown      70  91  70  89 /  20  30  40  70
Lawrenceburg   72  92  72  91 /  20  30  30  70
Murfreesboro   74  97  73  95 /  20  20  50  70
Waverly        73  94  73  92 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>010-
023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for
TNZ005>010-023>032-056>064-075-093>095.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ011-033-034-065-066-
077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore

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