Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk this evening into the overnight hours
  with all hazards possible. Risk levels range from level 1 out of
  5 along the Plateau to 3 out of 5 for northwest Middle
  Tennessee.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across
  the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The main risks are
  damaging winds and large hail. The tornado risk is low.

- Good drought relief rainfall is expected with 1 to 3 inches
  across most of the mid state through mid-week. Although some
  locally heavy downpours and standing water may occur,
  significant flooding is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A non-PDS Tornado Watch is currently in effect for western Middle
Tennessee counties until 5 a.m. Although the main line of
organized convection is still impacting southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, discreet cells are now beginning to develop
over northwest Middle Tennessee. The environment across the mid
state is quite unstable, with steep mid-level lapse rates, plenty
of available moisture and significant low-level wind shear. A
capping inversion that was evident on the 00Z OHX sounding is
expected to erode prior to the arrival of storms later this
evening. The HRRR has consistently shown widespread convection
developing ahead of the approaching line of storms and more or
less merging by late evening, with little abatement into the early
morning hours. Although the severe threat is expected to diminish
as the convection propagates eastward and we lose more of our
daytime heating, the convection itself is expected to hold
together all the way across Middle Tennessee, and that will
consume the bulk of the overnight hours. The cold front that is
the primary culprit for this active weather pattern will stall
out just to our northwest, keeping us in this warm, unstable
environment for an additional day, so we'll get to do this again
tomorrow night (although the setup will be quite different). On
Tuesday, a low pressure center will ride northeastward out of the
Arklatex and right along the cold frontal boundary before pulling
the entire system through the mid state Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. There is less of a severe risk tomorrow night than
tonight, but all severe modes will still be possible. We can
expect our rain and storm chances to finally taper off on
Wednesday as cooler air fills in behind the departing cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Significantly cooler weather will prevail from late week, through
the weekend and into early next week. And that will get us into
May. There are low to medium rain chances on Friday and Friday
night as an active weather system skirts across the Gulf Coast
states, but there's little severe threat with that one. The next
appreciable rain chances won't come our way until the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The TAFs begin with TEMPO groups for TS (except for KCSV and KSRB,
where convection is expected later on tonight) as storms continue
to develop ahead of another line of storms that is approaching
from the NW. Needless to say, gusty winds, low ceilings and heavy
rain are expected with the overnight convection, with lingering
light showers behind the storms and then several hours of MVFR
ceilings throughout the morning and into the afternoon. Expect
more TS at KBNA after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  66  75  49 /  50 100  70  10
Clarksville    82  63  72  46 /  50  90  40  10
Crossville     75  59  71  47 /  60  80  90  20
Columbia       83  63  75  47 /  50  90  70  10
Cookeville     78  61  72  48 /  50  90  80  20
Jamestown      78  59  71  45 /  50  90  90  30
Lawrenceburg   81  63  75  49 /  50  90  80  20
Murfreesboro   83  63  76  48 /  50  90  80  10
Waverly        83  61  71  47 /  50 100  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SW Summertown         35.41N 87.33W
04/28/2026                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down blocking Buffalo Road north of
            Buie Road in Summertown.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
205 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Summertown              35.44N 87.30W
04/28/2026                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            *** 1 INJ ***
            Tree down on car at Summertown Baptist.
            Driver was injured.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
224 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Summertown        35.42N 87.26W
04/28/2026                   Lawrence           TN   911 Call Center

            Powerlines reported down on Dukes Park Road
            and Stephenson Road in Summertown. EM
            reporting 1024 customers without power in
            northern Lawrence County.

&&

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