Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1033 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Severe thunderstorm risk this evening into the overnight hours
  with all hazards possible. Risk levels range from level 1 out of
  5 along the Plateau to 3 out of 5 for northwest Middle
  Tennessee.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across
  the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. The main risks are
  damaging winds and large hail. The tornado risk is low.

- Good drought relief rainfall is expected with 1 to 3 inches
  across most of the mid state through mid-week. Although some
  locally heavy downpours and standing water may occur,
  significant flooding is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A non-PDS Tornado Watch is currently in effect for western Middle
Tennessee counties until 5 a.m. Although the main line of
organized convection is still impacting southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, discreet cells are now beginning to develop
over northwest Middle Tennessee. The environment across the mid
state is quite unstable, with steep mid-level lapse rates, plenty
of available moisture and significant low-level wind shear. A
capping inversion that was evident on the 00Z OHX sounding is
expected to erode prior to the arrival of storms later this
evening. The HRRR has consistently shown widespread convection
developing ahead of the approaching line of storms and more or
less merging by late evening, with little abatement into the early
morning hours. Although the severe threat is expected to diminish
as the convection propagates eastward and we lose more of our
daytime heating, the convection itself is expected to hold
together all the way across Middle Tennessee, and that will
consume the bulk of the overnight hours. The cold front that is
the primary culprit for this active weather pattern will stall
out just to our northwest, keeping us in this warm, unstable
environment for an additional day, so we'll get to do this again
tomorrow night (although the setup will be quite different). On
Tuesday, a low pressure center will ride northeastward out of the
Arklatex and right along the cold frontal boundary before pulling
the entire system through the mid state Tuesday night and early
Wednesday. There is less of a severe risk tomorrow night than
tonight, but all severe modes will still be possible. We can
expect our rain and storm chances to finally taper off on
Wednesday as cooler air fills in behind the departing cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Significantly cooler weather will prevail from late week, through
the weekend and into early next week. And that will get us into
May. There are low to medium rain chances on Friday and Friday
night as an active weather system skirts across the Gulf Coast
states, but there's little severe threat with that one. The next
appreciable rain chances won't come our way until the middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

No significant changes with this TAF update. Main changes were to
slow arrival of thunderstorms slightly as latest mesoanalysis
suggest delayed initialization over Middle TN. Otherwise, a line
of thunderstorms, some severe, are still expected to move through
the overnight. Damaging winds and hail will be the greatest
threats. VFR conditions remain this evening until storms arrive,
most likely after 02z. VFR conditions return Tuesday afternoon
with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  83  66  75 /  90  50 100  70
Clarksville    65  82  63  72 / 100  50  90  40
Crossville     55  75  59  71 /  90  60  80  90
Columbia       64  83  63  75 /  90  50  90  70
Cookeville     58  78  61  72 /  90  50  90  80
Jamestown      55  78  59  71 /  90  50  90  90
Lawrenceburg   63  81  63  75 /  90  50  90  80
Murfreesboro   63  83  63  76 /  90  50  90  80
Waverly        65  83  61  71 / 100  50 100  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cravens

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

TNZ025-026-057-059-280500-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-
1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON...
NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTH CENTRAL CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN
HICKMAN COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1120 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Centerville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Centerville, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Burns, Fairview,
Bon Aqua, Pinewood, Lyles, Nunnelly, and Leipers Fork.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 155 and 159, and between mile
markers 161 and 187.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8759 3595 8756 3596 8755 3597 8753
      3598 8753 3616 8715 3590 8698 3577 8754
      3594 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 248DEG 27KT 3589 8749

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1126 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

TNZ006-007-025>027-280515-
Robertson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-
1126 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHEASTERN DICKSON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN CHEATHAM
AND SOUTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Ashland City, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Ashland City, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Greenbrier,
Coopertown, Ridgetop, Joelton, Pleasant View, Cheatham Dam, Beaman
Park, and Whites Creek.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 90 and 93.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 20 and 43.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 8672 3642 8672 3642 8675 3641 8675
      3638 8673 3634 8672 3623 8672 3625 8728
      3643 8729
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 267DEG 34KT 3634 8720

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

27