Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Nashville, TN

936 
WGUS74 KOHX 112235
FFSOHX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

TNC135-112245-
/O.CAN.KOHX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-260711T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Perry TN-
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT Sunday for a 
portion of Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 8804 3567 8802 3567 8774 3566 8774
      3561 8766 3559 8765 3556 8765 3555 8769
      3551 8769 3551 8771 3548 8772 3549 8775
      3547 8785 3548 8786 3546 8797 3545 8799
      3545 8804 3547 8803 3548 8799 3551 8797

$$

Reagan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
109 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Middle Tennessee
  until 6 PM Sunday.

- There's a "Slight Risk" (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Damaging
  winds are the main concern.

- Drier conditions expected next week, but with isolated afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The active, moist pattern persists across Middle TN today with a
continued Flood Watch in effect until 6 PM Sunday. A slow-moving
boundary and embedded disturbances will support to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, particularly this afternoon and
evening. There is a low to medium severe weather threat with these
storms. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern, with a
few stronger storms possibly producing small hail and frequent
lightning. Instability will build with daytime heating in this
humid airmass (PWATs of 2+ inches), and shear profiles support
organized clusters or bowing segments. While not a widespread
major severe event, localized strong winds and heavy downpours
will heighten flash flooding risks, especially in areas that have
already seen significant rainfall recently. The isolated to
scattered nature of storms early this afternoon will give way to
better storm coverage through the late afternoon and evening.

Highs today look to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat
indices near or above 100 (mainly along and W of I-65). Overnight
and into Sunday, lingering storms are likely, maintaining the
flood threat with additional localized heavy rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The upper level pattern begins to shift early next week as a broad
ridge builds westward, helping to cut off or weaken the influence
of the low over the TN Valley. A surface boundary will drift
slowly south, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms chances
alive, especially Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain and localized
flooding could still occur where storms train or repeat, but
overall coverage should gradually decrease compared to the
weekend.

By mid to late week, drier conditions take hold under the
expanding ridge, with only isolated diurnal thunderstorms
possible. Overall, precipitation chances drop notably, providing
relief from the ongoing flood risk. Temperatures stay seasonally
warm and humid, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. With plenty of
moisture throughout the region, humidty will keep things feeling
sticky.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

18Z tafs are starting VFR and will be much of the afternoon, but
numerous showers and storms are expected to move into and develop
across the area late this afternoon and evening. Some strong TSRA
will occur with very heavy rainfall and gusty winds over 30KT.
Main timing for this activity will be 23Z-06Z. After the storms, a
mix of MVFR/VFR will occur with VCSH. Winds will be WSW with gusts
to 16KT today, with light W to NW winds overnight into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  84  70  84 /  80  90  50  80
Clarksville    70  83  69  84 /  80  80  40  60
Crossville     66  79  65  79 /  80  80  50  90
Columbia       70  84  68  83 /  70  80  50  80
Cookeville     68  81  67  81 /  90  90  40  90
Jamestown      66  80  65  80 /  90  90  60  90
Lawrenceburg   69  83  68  82 /  70  80  60  80
Murfreesboro   70  85  69  84 /  80  90  60  90
Waverly        69  83  68  83 /  80  80  40  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....13