Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Showers and storms with the potential for damaging winds and heavy
rainfall expected through this evening; isolated tornado threat
south of I-40.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances return
late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

- A hot and dry pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A well-defined MCV is located over West TN, and will track east
through the evening. Storms are expected to develop and intensify
across northern MS/AL ahead of it, potentially reaching severe
levels in a very moist and unstable air mass. The MCV induces a low
pressure center to form along the cold front, and this low tracks
across TN as it strengthens. In response the LLJ increases to around
50 kt, giving adequate low level shear for a low-end tornado threat
in southern portions of our area. We are seeing clouds break up in
the southern Valley, allowing for surface heating and
destabilization over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg south of I-40, with effective shear
in the 30-35 kt range, which will support a threat of severe storms.
CAMS differ on timing but what they do have in common is an
organized area of shower/storms, potentially in the form of a QLCS,
tracking across northern AL/GA and southern East TN this evening.
Damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out anywhere given the strong
winds aloft, but the southern Valley seems the most likely area for
severe storms with a potential for isolated tornadoes. The most
likely time frame for this threat appears to be between 6 pm and 10
pm.

Showers persist behind the departing low through most of the night
as a mid/upper trough will cross the area. Dry air aloft and a
stable layer at 850-700 mb build in around 12Z. A NW flow and a
little low level CAPE may keep a few showers going into the day
across eastern sections and mountains tomorrow, but most of the area
will be dry and cooler.

For the rest of the week, we will have a pattern that is nearly
zonal with a few weak disturbances moving through. Chance to slight
chance PoPs will be in the forecast each day until next week when a
large ridge is expected to build across the Southeast. This will
likely bring dry and hot weather for Sunday and Monday, and
potentially beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Gusty SW winds are observed at all sites this afternoon, and this
will continue through much of the evening. Showers/storms are
expected to increase through the afternoon over northern AL and
southern Middle TN, and track east. TS with MVFR vis/cigs are
likely at all sites between 22Z and 03Z. Showers with a few
isolated TS will persist after that time until a front crosses the
area around 06Z, when winds will shift to the west. Clouds will
remain MVFR through the night in the moist air mass, and TRI may
drop down to IFR (low confidence). We should see cigs rising late
in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  84  64  86 /  90  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  82  61  85 /  90  20   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  83  61  86 /  90  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  79  55  84 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-231845-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA-
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 /132 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening. TSome storms could be strong to severe, with damaging
winds being the primary threat. An isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out in the southern Tennessee Valley. Localized flash
flooding may also occur where storms repeatedly track over the
same area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of severe weather or flooding this afternoon and
evening are greatly appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

TNZ081-098-099-221945-
Sequatchie TN-Marion TN-Hamilton TN-
248 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SEQUATCHIE...MARION AND
SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/...

At 248 PM EDT/148 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 10 miles north of Skyline, or 16 miles south of
Winchester, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chattanooga, Dunlap, Jasper, Soddy-Daisy, Signal Mountain, South
Pittsburg, Walden, Whitwell, Kimball, and Monteagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8584 3524 8582 3522 8577 3522 8574
      3524 8569 3529 8571 3532 8557 3536 8551
      3539 8549 3543 8538 3523 8521 3499 8513
      3499 8586 3522 8586 3522 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 245DEG 41KT 3495 8606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

19

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