Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
407 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist through
  sunrise, a few producing hail and gusty winds, followed by
  partial clearing this afternoon.

- The next best chance for rain comes early Tuesday morning,
  then dry for much of the upcoming week.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values through
  Wednesday, then drop below normal Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A bit of a nondescript surface pressure pattern sits over the
WFO MPX coverage area with some scattered showers/thunderstorms
early this morning over far eastern MN through western WI. A few
meager troughs at the surface can be analyzed while the main
surface low lingers over eastern SD/NE. Aloft, the large trough
emanating from Hudson Bay continues to rotate several shortwave
disturbances around its western and southern fringes through the
Upper Midwest. The most important feature is LLJ in between
900-700mb, helping spark the thunderstorm activity within an
environment sporting a roughly 1.50" PWAT. The
moisture/instability gradient shows up nicely at the surface
with dewpoints into the low- mid 60s in western MN while
dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60 are evident in eastern MN
to western WI.

The expectation is that going towards sunrise, the push of the
surface low into IA within the elevated moisture/unstable
environment will help fill in the area over southwestern-
southern MN with additional showers/thunderstorms. Not
necessarily expecting much in the way of strong-severe
thunderstorms but the storms ongoing overnight have generally
produced 0.25"-0.50" hail along with frequent lightning and
rainfall rates nearing 1 in/hr. The storms are progressive to
the east, thus mitigating flooding concerns thus far. However,
should storm coverage overachieve, even FFG over 2 in/hr could
be realized in pockets.

Storms are expected to wane in coverage/intensity from late
morning into the early afternoon, with partial clearing
thereafter as the low pressure center and its associated fronts
move to the E and SE of the coverage area. This will then allow
high pressure to nudge southward from Canada. While this
scenario will not bring in an airmass change in terms of
temperatures/dewpoints, it will push the lingering frontal
boundary far south enough to allow for dry weather to prevail
from this afternoon through Monday evening. The front does look
to retreat back north just enough to spawn another round of
scattered showers/thunderstorms early morning Tuesday, in
conjunction with one last gasp from the upper low over eastern
NOAM. Like this morning, there is the possibility of a few
stronger storms but organization is again lacking as is diurnal
assistance due to the overnight timing.

The rest of the week looks to run mainly dry aside from an
isolated chance here or there of a few showers. The topic then
changes to one of temperatures as temperatures will remain
generally close to normal through Wednesday with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, possibly as high as 84-85 degrees. The
upper ridge over the western CONUS is expected to flatten/shift
southward slightly while the NOAM trough shifts to the eastern
seaboard, making for more pronounced northwest flow aloft for
the north-central CONUS. Cooler western Canadian high pressure
will slide southeast to the Upper Midwest, bringing a cooler
airmass to our region from Thursday onward. This will push highs
into the 70s area-wide for the latter portion of the week, with
lows into the 50s away from the Twin Cities metro (and near 60
within the TC metro).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Tricky convective forecast over the next 24 hours due to high
uncertainty among the CAMs with not only initiation but also
projected development during the TAF period. Very isolated TSRA
currently ongoing but mostly away from terminals so have been
able to start all sites as dry. That said, a variance of PROB30
timing exists across all sites as pockets of TSRA are generally
expected but difficult to go with TEMPO certainty as to
where/when. Will monitor radar trends and issue AMDs as needed.
Otherwise, mid-level clouds will increase underneath upper level
passing cirrus/smoke. Ceilings are likely near and after
daybreak, and potentially into MVFR level should TSRA occur near
any terminals (which also would cause visibility reductions).
Winds may be quite erratic owing to nearby frontal boundaries
and convective outflows, but overall to remain under 10kts
outside of TSRA.

KMSP...Best timing for TSRA still looks to be during the early
morning hours up through sunrise, but this could be adjusted
should additional clusters develop over the eastern Dakotas
which shift east across MN and/or over central MN and drift near
the TC metro. Will continue to run with the 10z-13z timing but
this could be adjusted earlier or later so radar trends will be
monitored closely. Otherwise, mid-level ceilings will develop
close to sunrise and persist for much of the day before the
mid-levels scour out in favor of high cirrus/smoke passing
across the area. Winds overall to remain under 10kts but with
potentially erratic changes in direction throughout this TAF
period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc early A.M. -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NW.
THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
100900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
411 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through late this morning
across much of the coverage area. A few storms may produce hail,
gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy rain. Severe
storms cannot be entirely ruled out but chances are low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop late Monday night
into early Tuesday morning across much of the coverage area. A
few storms may produce hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning and
brief heavy rain. Severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out but
chances are low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is not expected to be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
319 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

WIZ023>026-028-090915-
Eau Claire WI-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-Pepin WI-Dunn WI-
319 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PEPIN...ST. CROIX...
SOUTHERN DUNN...SOUTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE AND EASTERN PIERCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 319 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles south of Somerset to 7 miles
south of Eau Galle, or extending from 13 miles north of River Falls
to 22 miles south of Menomonie, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Menomonie, River Falls, Hudson, New Richmond, Bayport, Somerset,
  Durand, Baldwin, Hammond, Roberts, Woodville, Glenwood City,
  Boyceville, Elmwood, Eau Galle, Plum City, Knapp and El Paso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4501 9277 4507 9280 4511 9274 4513 9275
      4505 9204 4479 9166 4460 9158 4460 9200
      4459 9203 4451 9205 4458 9227
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 282DEG 30KT 4504 9267 4484 9225 4460 9207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
430 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

WIZ023-025-091030-
Dunn WI-St. Croix WI-
430 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DUNN AND CENTRAL
ST. CROIX COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

At 430 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Somerset, or 18 miles north of River Falls, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Menomonie, New Richmond, Somerset, Baldwin, Hammond, Roberts,
  Woodville, Glenwood City, Boyceville, Star Prairie, Knapp, Wheeler,
  Forest, Emerald, Cylon, Downing, Wilson, Hersey, and Houlton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4521 9262 4505 9180 4479 9193 4486 9214
      4505 9275 4521 9267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0929Z 289DEG 34KT 4512 9265

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
458 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

WIZ023>025-091100-
Pierce WI-Dunn WI-St. Croix WI-
458 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN DUNN...NORTHEASTERN
PIERCE AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM CDT...

At 458 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Roberts, or near River Falls, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Menomonie, River Falls, Baldwin, Hammond, Roberts, Woodville,
  Elmwood, Eau Galle, El Paso, Weston, Wilson, Martel, and
  Downsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4483 9264 4501 9259 4490 9179 4468 9189
      4468 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 282DEG 33KT 4491 9255

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
512 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

MNZ074-075-082-083-091-092-091115-
Martin MN-Faribault MN-Watonwan MN-Brown MN-Nicollet MN-Blue
Earth MN-
512 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FARIBAULT...
NORTHEASTERN MARTIN...BLUE EARTH...WATONWAN...SOUTHEASTERN BROWN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 512 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles west of Hanska to near Truman,
or extending from 14 miles southwest of New Ulm to 9 miles north of
Fairmont, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Mankato, Fairmont, North Mankato, St. James, Blue Earth, Lake
  Crystal, Eagle Lake, Madelia, Mapleton, Winnebago, Truman, Madison
  Lake, St. Clair, Minnesota Lake, Welcome, Good Thunder, Amboy,
  Hanska, Vernon Center and Lewisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9474 4423 9467 4424 9377 4385 9377
      4363 9378 4363 9464 4400 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 272DEG 34KT 4414 9464 4403 9454 4377 9447

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
538 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

MNZ065>067-069-073>076-091145-
Sibley MN-Renville MN-McLeod MN-Scott MN-Le Sueur MN-Brown MN-
Nicollet MN-Redwood MN-
538 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BROWN...
NICOLLET...SOUTH CENTRAL MCLEOD...SIBLEY...LE SUEUR...SOUTHEASTERN
REDWOOD...SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL
645 AM CDT...

At 538 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Arlington to near Springfield, or
extending from 23 miles southeast of Hutchinson to 20 miles southeast
of Redwood Falls, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  New Ulm, St. Peter, New Prague, Belle Plaine, Le Sueur, Sleepy Eye,
  Le Center, Gaylord, Arlington, Winthrop, Nicollet, Henderson,
  Gibbon, Kasota, Courtland, Green Isle, Lafayette, Cleveland and
  Helena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4428 9509 4463 9450 4469 9422 4467 9377
      4463 9376 4464 9376 4466 9372 4461 9344
      4424 9383 4423 9428 4426 9437 4423 9437
      4423 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 1038Z 274DEG 38KT 4463 9410 4446 9444 4428 9493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
542 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

MNZ091-092-091115-
Martin MN-Faribault MN-
542 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FARIBAULT AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 542 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Fairmont, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Fairmont, Blue Earth, Elmore, East Chain and Wilbert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9455 4364 9460 4364 9411 4350 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 274DEG 19KT 4357 9439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

MPG