Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and comfortable conditions remainder of today with highs
  into the lower 80s.

- The next best chances for rain comes tonight into Sunday
  morning, Sunday night into Monday morning, and early Tuesday
  morning.

- A few storms each of those periods may be strong to severe,
 mainly over southwestern and southern Minnesota.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values into the
 middle of next week, then drop below normal late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous
forecast packages. A somewhat active weather pattern with
daily chances of showers and storms across the region through
the period. Temperatures through the weekend and into next week
will hover right around the seasonal average, becoming slightly
below average by the end of next work week and weekend.

.REMAINDER OF TODAY & SUNDAY...

Fair and tranquil weather conditions continue through the
afternoon and evening. Current DP temps as of 1:00pm are in
the 50s across the metro (very comfortable) with temperatures in
the middle to upper 70s. Slightly higher DP temps reside
further south and west across MN. The next shot of showers and
thunderstorms will be late this evening, and more so during the
overnight/early Sunday morning timeframe.

Bigger picture looking aloft, upper level Monsoon high pressure
over the Desert SW and Four Corners regions with corresponding
longwave trough over Hudson Bay with continue to promote zonal
flow to slight NW flow aloft over the region. The slowly moving
to somewhat stagnant upper level Hudson Bay low will rotate
lobes of energy southeast out of the Canadian Prairies and
across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The first subtle
but sufficient lobe of energy will move across the region late
tonight and into tomorrow morning. The question at hand, will
this lobe of energy offer enough forcing for convection as it
moves by overhead? Looking further down in the column, this
energy is more apparent at 700mb as it moves through during the
overnight timeframe. At 850mb, a noticeable 850mb LLJ develops
across NW MO, SE NE and into IA with it's northern fringe nosing
into southern MN with 20-30kt SW 850mb winds across southern
half of MN. At the surface, surface low will develop over
central SD in response to the upper level energy, with
corresponding warm front surging north ahead of the LLJ just.

High res guidance shows sufficient moisture advection across
southern and southwestern MN with DP temps in the upper 60s to
around 70 degrees late tonight and early Sunday morning. This
warm front, in combination with strengthening 850mb flow, and
incoming upper level lobe of energy, along with sufficient
instability and shear parameters may promote robust convection
tonight. The second question at hand is, where will storm
initiation occur? There still remains quite a bit of
discrepancies between high res model guidance and high res
ensemble suites. But as of now, the focus for storm development
will be across eastern SD and western MN, with storm progression
towards the SE across southern MN, especially along and south
of Minnesota River Valley. Our colleagues at the Storm
Prediction Center has a marginal (1 out 5) risk for severe
weather along and south of the I-94 corridor. That said,
isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible during
the overnight and early morning Sunday timeframe for areas
along south of I-94, with a few storms becoming strong to
severe. The main threats will be strong to severe wind gusts,
some hail, dangerous lightning, and heavy rainfall.

After activity progresses east during the morning, isolated
showers and storms will exist for areas along and east of the
I-35 on Sunday.

.NEXT WORK WEEK...

On Monday, generally quiet and fair weather conditions will
resume with near seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies. The next chance for showers and storms will
be on Tuesday as another lobe of energy rotates and races
southeast across the region. Thereafter, the aforementioned
Hudson Bay upper low will begin to weaken and move east, giving
the area a brief period of quiet weather Thursday and Friday
before the next system brings increase rain/storm chances next
weekend. Temperatures through the second half of the week will
be near to slightly below the seasonal average for the middle of
August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Tricky convective forecast over the next 24 hours due to high
uncertainty among the CAMs with not only initiation but also
projected development during the TAF period. Very isolated TSRA
currently ongoing but mostly away from terminals so have been
able to start all sites as dry. That said, a variance of PROB30
timing exists across all sites as pockets of TSRA are generally
expected but difficult to go with TEMPO certainty as to
where/when. Will monitor radar trends and issue AMDs as needed.
Otherwise, mid-level clouds will increase underneath upper level
passing cirrus/smoke. Ceilings are likely near and after
daybreak, and potentially into MVFR level should TSRA occur near
any terminals (which also would cause visibility reductions).
Winds may be quite erratic owing to nearby frontal boundaries
and convective outflows, but overall to remain under 10kts
outside of TSRA.

KMSP...Best timing for TSRA still looks to be during the early
morning hours up through sunrise, but this could be adjusted
should additional clusters develop over the eastern Dakotas
which shift east across MN and/or over central MN and drift near
the TC metro. Will continue to run with the 10z-13z timing but
this could be adjusted earlier or later so radar trends will be
monitored closely. Otherwise, mid-level ceilings will develop
close to sunrise and persist for much of the day before the
mid-levels scour out in favor of high cirrus/smoke passing
across the area. Winds overall to remain under 10kts but with
potentially erratic changes in direction throughout this TAF
period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc early A.M. -SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts becoming NW.
THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

MNZ044-045-052-053-WIZ014>016-023-025-027-028-092100-
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Dunn-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A chance of thunderstorms is possible late tonight. The strongest
threat for severe thunderstorms will be across southern MN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue into Sunday
morning. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop late
again Monday night. The threat for any severe thunderstorms will
remain across southern MN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ041>043-047>051-054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ024-026-
092100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-
Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-
Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Pierce-Pepin-
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota...west central
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop late tonight over
mainly far southern Minnesota. A few storms may be severe, with
the main hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop late
Sunday night and again Monday night over mainly far southern
Minnesota. A few storms may be severe each night, with the main
hazards being damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
901 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

MNZ082-090245-
Watonwan MN-
901 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WATONWAN COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Butterfield, or 21 miles southwest of New Ulm,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Sveadahl, St. James, La Salle, St James Airport, Grogan, Madelia
  and Lewisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4403 9480 4411 9484 4411 9437 4387 9437
      4400 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 290DEG 27KT 4406 9473

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Dunleavy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
932 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

MNZ083-090300-
Blue Earth MN-
932 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH COUNTY
UNTIL 10 PM CDT...

At 932 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lewisville, or 23 miles north of Fairmont, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Amboy and Vernon Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4403 9437 4398 9405 4385 9415 4385 9433
      4387 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 293DEG 30KT 4397 9440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Dunleavy

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
952 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     Hail             2 ENE Lewisville        43.94N 94.39W
08/08/2026  M0.88 Inch       Watonwan           MN   Trained Spotter

            Phoned in hail diameter measurement. Time
            estimated via radar.

&&

RMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
958 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

MNZ083-092-090330-
Faribault MN-Blue Earth MN-
958 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FARIBAULT AND
SOUTHEASTERN BLUE EARTH COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 958 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Amboy, or 19 miles south of Mankato, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Amboy, Mapleton, Easton and Minnesota Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4386 9419 4397 9413 4392 9380 4371 9388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 289DEG 26KT 4390 9412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Dunleavy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
114 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

MNZ042-043-049-090700-
Morrison MN-Todd MN-Stearns MN-
114 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TODD...
SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON AND NORTHEASTERN STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 2 AM
CDT...

At 114 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms extending from 7 miles east of Lake Osakis to near
Albany, or extending from 18 miles east of Alexandria to 21 miles
northwest of St. Cloud, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  St. Anthony, Long Prairie, Albany, Avon, Holdingford, Freeport,
  Upsala, Swanville, Grey Eagle, Bowlus, Little Sauk, Round Prairie,
  Burtrum, Elmdale, Pleasant Beach, St. Rosa, North Shore, Birch
  Lakes State Forest and Long Prairie Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4577 9491 4590 9512 4600 9475 4575 9426
      4574 9426 4574 9425 4560 9429 4560 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 261DEG 16KT 4590 9499 4574 9476 4569 9455

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
132 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

MNZ070-090700-
Dakota MN-
132 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DAKOTA COUNTY UNTIL 2
AM CDT...

At 132 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Farmington, or 12 miles north of Northfield, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lakeville, Farmington, Castle Rock, Hampton, Randolph, Vermillion,
  Miesville, New Trier and Lakeville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4456 9326 4467 9326 4469 9273 4463 9273
      4463 9279 4454 9279 4454 9292 4452 9292
      4451 9295 4452 9300 4451 9304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0631Z 275DEG 29KT 4462 9319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

JPC