Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Twin Cities, MN

916 
WWUS53 KMPX 040220
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
920 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MNC041-153-040300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-260904T0300Z/
Douglas MN-Todd MN-
920 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TODD AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 920 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Carlos, or 15 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported 2 inch size hail just north of
         Miltona, MN

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Miltona, Belle River, Rose City, Eagle Bend, Clotho and Clarissa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors should move to shelter inside a well-built structure
and stay away from windows. This storm has produced dangerous hail
and is capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4605 9541 4611 9541 4611 9515 4619 9515
      4618 9492 4591 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 282DEG 25KT 4610 9533

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LPR

200 
WWUS53 KMPX 040240
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
940 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MNC041-153-040300-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-260904T0300Z/
Douglas MN-Todd MN-
940 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TODD AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 940 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Clarissa, or 21 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. Storm has weakened since the confirmed hail
         report, decreased hail size to quarter.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Rose City, Eagle Bend, Clotho and Clarissa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 9527 4611 9527 4611 9515 4616 9515
      4616 9493 4600 9500 4594 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 282DEG 25KT 4609 9520

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

LPR

785 
WWUS53 KMPX 040247
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
947 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MNC041-153-040257-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-260904T0300Z/
Douglas MN-Todd MN-
947 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WEST CENTRAL TODD AND
NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm over the next 15 minutes.

&&

LAT...LON 4604 9527 4611 9527 4611 9515 4616 9515
      4616 9493 4600 9500 4594 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 282DEG 25KT 4605 9500

$$

LPR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
617 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible tonight, most likely across
  north-central Minnesota. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
  threat.

- Hot & humid Friday into saturday with heat index values of
  95-100 possible.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Tonight:
Scattered thunderstorms continue to fester across eastern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin this afternoon, with brief
instances of small hail occurring in the strongest storms. This
continued activity through the day has basically mitigated our
potential for explosive storm growth this afternoon, despite
very steep mid-level lapse rates & surface based CAPE values in
excess of 3000 J/kg.

Our eyes continue to be on the complex of thunderstorms exiting
eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, & especially
where it tracks through the evening. So far, the thunderstorm
complex has been making an orderly progression off to the east,
with no signs of a southeasterly turn towards our area of
central Minnesota. Recent radar trends suggest the line of
storms may even be breaking up into discrete clusters or even
discrete supercells. These would be even less likely to migrate
southeastwards, so we will continue to wait & see if any
thunderstorm complexes can develop back to the west across
eastern ND, or something new can develop from the remnants of
the ongoing storms. It's still too early to write of any severe
potential for tonight given the environment in place &
instability gradient extending southeastwards into north-
central Minnesota, & northwest Wisconsin, although our
confidence is increasing that it should remain north of an
Alexandria-St. Cloud-Rice Rake/Barron line. Damaging wind gusts
would be the primary hazard with this thunderstorm complex,
followed by large hail. Timing looks to mainly be tonight - 7-9
PM across western portions of central MN, 9-11 PM across eastern
portions, & 11 PM-1 AM across northwest Wisconsin.

Friday:
Friday will be dry, with a low chance of some isolated
thunderstorms developing near the Iowa-Minnesota border tomorrow
afternoon. Should these storms develop, the strongest storms
could contain large hail. Otherwise, heat & humidity will be
the main weather concern with temperatures expected to warm into
the low 90s across much of the area. Less confident is the dew
point forecast, with many of the latest 18Z high-resolutin
models suggesting we have some drier air move into at least
central Minnesota 7 western Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon. This
could create a sharp gradient where heat index values stay in
the low 90s across central MN & western WI, while approaching
100 degrees across far-southern Minnesota. We only look to
approach Heat Advisory criteria in the twin Cities metro (where
thresholds are at 95 degrees), but have decided to hold off on
any issuance at this time given the trend towards lower dew
points & heat index values tomorrow afternoon.

This Weekend:
Low confidence on the heat forecast this weekend, owing to the
possibility for cooler flow off of Lake Superior saturday &
precipitation/cloud cover Sunday. We could see another day of
heat & humidity Saturday with many of the legacy global models
suggesting highs around 90 along with muggy dew points, however
AI models & a few of the high-resolution models suggest we could
be entrenched in cooler northeast flow off of Lake Superior
throughout the day. This would result in a rather comfortable
day with highs around 80 and less muggy dewpoints, while a
gradient sets up somewhere over western Minnesota where we still
see heat index values approach 100 degrees where the lake-
cooled air does not reach.

A shortwave arrives late Saturday night, providing another
chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms overnight Saturday
night through Sunday morning. Low confidence on any of the
details, but the best chances for appreciable rainfall appear to
be across western Minnesota.

Next Week:
The upper air pattern remains active as a number of disturbances
ride over the ridge centered over the region. Confidence is low
on when & where the greatest precipitation chances will be, the
main window for more widespread rainfall looks to be late Monday
through Tuesday. Temperatures will depend on the timing of any
precipitation systems, but will tend to be well-above normal
earlier in the week with some cooling relief (but still likely
above- normal) coming later in the week. For reference - average
temperatures for early September are in the mid to upper 70s for
highs & upper 50s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A thunderstorm will remain near EAU for the next hour before
moving east. Afterwards, it is looking increasingly more likely
that all TAF sites will remain dry through the entire period.
The clusters of thunderstorms currently in northern MN should
remain well to our north as it travels east-southeast into
Friday morning. CAMs do show additional -SHRA/TSRA development
over WI after 09z Friday but this activity should be east of
EAU. Fog and low clouds appear more probable within the few
hours of sunrise Friday morning, particularly over central MN
and west- central WI. LIFR/IFR conditions are expected until
about 14z. Afterwards, skies clear with VFR conditions the rest
of Friday. Southeasterly winds lessen to 5 knots overnight
before turning northeasterly and increasing to 5-10 knots from
west to east during Friday.

KMSP...Removed PROB30 for -TSRA tonight as convection looks to
stay well north and east of MSP. Some patchy fog may occur near
the terminal, especially in the river valley but opted not to
include a mention of it in the TAF at this time. Northeasterly
winds of 5-10 knots are expected late Friday morning through the
evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR late. Wind E 5kts.
SUN...Chc -TSRA, generally MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...Sct -TSRA, generally MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
042015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across central Minnesota
& northwest Wisconsin, generally north of an Alexandria-St.
Cloud-Rice Lake/Barron line. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
hazard followed by large hail.

There is a low, but non-zero, chance that the line of
thunderstorms could move more to the southeast along Interstate 94
& towards the Twin Cities & west-central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot & humid weather returns Friday through Saturday with heat
index values of 95-100 degrees likely during the afternoon.

Multiple chances for thunderstorms exist next week, with the next
likely occurrence coming overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed across portions
of central Minnesota & west-central Wisconsin.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
848 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

MNZ041-040215-
Douglas MN-
848 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 848 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Brandon, or 18 miles north of Alexandria, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Millerville and Leaf Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4607 9561 4611 9561 4611 9529 4600 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 282DEG 21KT 4614 9551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

LPR