Heat Advisory 9, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
207 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible tonight, most likely across
  north-central Minnesota. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
  threat.

- Hot & humid Friday into saturday with heat index values of
  95-100 possible.

- Frequent chances for scattered showers & thunderstorms into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Tonight:
Scattered thunderstorms continue to fester across eastern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin this afternoon, with brief
instances of small hail occurring in the strongest storms. This
continued activity through the day has basically mitigated our
potential for explosive storm growth this afternoon, despite
very steep mid-level lapse rates & surface based CAPE values in
excess of 3000 J/kg.

Our eyes continue to be on the complex of thunderstorms exiting
eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, & especially
where it tracks through the evening. So far, the thunderstorm
complex has been making an orderly progression off to the east,
with no signs of a southeasterly turn towards our area of
central Minnesota. Recent radar trends suggest the line of
storms may even be breaking up into discrete clusters or even
discrete supercells. These would be even less likely to migrate
southeastwards, so we will continue to wait & see if any
thunderstorm complexes can develop back to the west across
eastern ND, or something new can develop from the remnants of
the ongoing storms. It's still too early to write of any severe
potential for tonight given the environment in place &
instability gradient extending southeastwards into north-
central Minnesota, & northwest Wisconsin, although our
confidence is increasing that it should remain north of an
Alexandria-St. Cloud-Rice Rake/Barron line. Damaging wind gusts
would be the primary hazard with this thunderstorm complex,
followed by large hail. Timing looks to mainly be tonight - 7-9
PM across western portions of central MN, 9-11 PM across eastern
portions, & 11 PM-1 AM across northwest Wisconsin.

Friday:
Friday will be dry, with a low chance of some isolated
thunderstorms developing near the Iowa-Minnesota border tomorrow
afternoon. Should these storms develop, the strongest storms
could contain large hail. Otherwise, heat & humidity will be the
main weather concern with temperatures expected to warm into
the low 90s across much of the area. Less confident is the dew
point forecast, with many of the latest 18Z high-resolutin
models suggesting we have some drier air move into at least
central Minnesota 7 western Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon. This
could create a sharp gradient where heat index values stay in
the low 90s across central MN & western WI, while approaching
100 degrees across far-southern Minnesota. We only look to
approach Heat Advisory criteria in the twin Cities metro (where
thresholds are at 95 degrees), but have decided to hold off on
any issuance at this time given the trend towards lower dew
points & heat index values tomorrow afternoon.

This Weekend:
Low confidence on the heat forecast this weekend, owing to the
possibility for cooler flow off of Lake Superior saturday &
precipitation/cloud cover Sunday. We could see another day of
heat & humidity Saturday with many of the legacy global models
suggesting highs around 90 along with muggy dew points, however
AI models & a few of the high-resolution models suggest we could
be entrenched in cooler northeast flow off of Lake Superior
throughout the day. This would result in a rather comfortable
day with highs around 80 and less muggy dewpoints, while a
gradient sets up somewhere over western Minnesota where we still
see heat index values approach 100 degrees where the lake-
cooled air does not reach.

A shortwave arrives late Saturday night, providing another
chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms overnight Saturday
night through Sunday morning. Low confidence on any of the
details, but the best chances for appreciable rainfall appear to
be across western Minnesota.

Next Week:
The upper air pattern remains active as a number of disturbances
ride over the ridge centered over the region. Confidence is low
on when & where the greatest precipitation chances will be, the
main window for more widespread rainfall looks to be late Monday
through Tuesday. Temperatures will depend on the timing of any
precipitation systems, but will tend to be well-above normal
earlier in the week with some cooling relief (but still likely
above- normal) coming later in the week. For reference - average
temperatures for early September are in the mid to upper 70s
for highs & upper 50s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Only
wrinkle will be early morning fog at multiple sites with winds
going nearly calm and very few to no cloud cover for the early
morning hours through daybreak. Most susceptible at this time
looks to be AXN-STC-RNH-EAU. Otherwise, once past sunrise, skies
partially clear out with no significant issues. Light winds
overnight before more NE during the day with speeds under 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...Chc SHRA/TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
TUE...Likely SHRA, chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
042100-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible during the early morning
hours across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, generally
north of an Alexandria to St. Cloud to Rice Lake line. Damaging
wind gusts are the primary hazard followed by large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid weather returns Friday through Saturday with heat
index values of 95-100 degrees likely during the afternoon.

Multiple chances for thunderstorms exist next week, with the next
likely occurrence coming overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed overnight tonight.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
954 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     Hail             3 NNE Miltona           46.08N 95.27W
09/03/2026  M2.00 Inch       Douglas            MN   Storm Chaser

            Multiple images of 2 inch (egg) size hail
            relayed to us on social media just NE of
            Miltona, MN.

&&

LPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
955 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     Hail             4 NW Miltona            46.09N 95.33W
09/03/2026  M2.25 Inch       Douglas            MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Hen Egg+ (2.25 in.).

&&

CTG