Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning continues this evening, and Heat Advisory
  through Tuesday evening south & east. Heat index values
  approach 110F today, and 100F on Tuesday.

- Low chance of thunderstorms this evening, but, if
  thunderstorms are able to develop they could become severe
  with heavy rain.

- Hot & humid weather continues this week, although not nearly
  as intense as today. Continued low chances for thunderstorms
  as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

It is hot. And it will stay that way for a while, though
thankfully today will be the worst of the heat impacts this
week. Dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 70s for the
entire region, though some pockets of 80F+ have started to pop
up this afternoon. Air temperatures have been stifled a little
more than expected by morning convection and afternoon cu field.
Heat index values range from 100-110F this afternoon and
evening, before getting some relief after sunset. This will be
dependent on storm chances late this evening and overnight as a
cold front looks to stall across central MN, dividing the state
in half vertically. As cooler 700 mb temperatures advect in
behind the front, that should provide enough forcing to overcome
the cap and initiate at least scattered storms along the line.
There is an explosive amount of instability (4500+ J/kg of
MUCAPE), so any storms that are able to develop would likely
become severe with damaging wind and heavy rainfall. The other
thing to watch is a unsuspecting threat for tornadoes given the
increasing amount of SRH values around sunset. There is a short
1-3 hour window of STP values jumping to 3+ just ahead of the
front as the LLJ increases and surface winds decrease just
enough to have a better hump to hodographs. The extent and
strength of any potential tornado risk will depend on storm
coverage and mode, which is uncertain right now given the
widespread variance across hi-res models. There are some models,
like the 18z RRFS, which have nothing develop this evening
across our area. Because of this variance, PoPs are still
limited, but the high end potential should still be messaged.

There is a growing signal for early morning convection to advect
north from Nebraska and Iowa, especially if we end up seeing
less storm coverage this evening. These storms would not have as
conducive of an environment for severe development, but they
would have an influence on our heat impacts for Tuesday. The
more storms and lingering cloud cover, the less of an impact
from heat. This is exactly what we saw today across parts of
central and northern MN as a bow echo raced northeast. With this
uncertainty in storm and cloud coverage, we opted to issue a
Heat Advisory for a number of counties across south and eastern
Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin. In areas that are not
drastically impacted by storms, heat indices are expected to
climb to about 100F Tuesday afternoon.

As the week progresses, not too much will change with the
overall weather pattern. Upper level ridging will continue to
dominate the eastern half of the CONUS, keeping the Upper MS
Valley on the northwestern periphery of the heat dome. Our hot
and muggy conditions will continue with highs anywhere between
the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints generally in the upper 60s
to low 70s. Heat risk will not be as much of a concern as it was
today, though the persistent heat will continue to have an
impact as it lingers for several days. A frontal boundary may
stall out the region, which would provide several opportunities
for additional storms through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Convection from earlier this evening has dissipated with VFR
conditions at most terminals. SCT -TSRA is seen on radar for
EAU with instances of MVFR conditions through 07z. Skies remain
BKN to OVC at 5-10 kft with MVFR (BKN at 2-4 kft) for STC. Winds
generally S to SSW at 8-13 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots over
the next few hours, becoming 5-10 knots by 10z.

High resolution models continue to show a line of TSRA, or MCS-
like feature moving NE out of Nebraska and Iowa before moving
into Minnesota later this morning. PROB30s remain in TAFs for
all terminals except AXN and STC. If this line of TSRA maintains
and moves across the area flight categories may drop to IFR to
MVFR. Something we will be monitoring over the next several
hours and TAFs will be AMENDED if needed. High res models show
this activity departing the area by 12-13z with BKN-OVC skies in
it's wake. Skies will quickly clear by early afternoon with FEW
at 5-10 kft and FEW to SCT at 20-25 kft this afternoon. Winds
will be SW at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this
afternoon.

KMSP...VFR conditions expected over the next several hours with
BKN to OVC skies. Winds remain breezy out of the S/SSW at 10-15
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Winds will slowly decrease
through the overnight and early morning timeframe. High res
model guidance continue to show a line of TSRA or MCS-like
feature moving NE out of Nebraska and Iowa before entering
Minnesota later this morning. PROB30s for TSRA remain in the
TAF. If said line of TSRA moves into the metro vicinity, flight
categories may become IFR to MVFR by 10z. This is something we
will continue monitoring in the coming hours and TAF will be
AMENDED if needed. High res models show this activity departing
the metro area by 12z with BKN to OVC skies in it's wake. Skies
will quickly clear by afternoon with FEW at 5-10 kft and FEW-SCT
at 20-25 kft during the afternoon. Winds in the afternoon will
be SW at 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20-25 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 8-13G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-
     Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
     Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-
     Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...LPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
227 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A line of thunderstorm will move across Minnesota & into western
Wisconsin early this morning. The highest chance for severe wind
gusts of 60+ mph is across southern Minnesota. Wind gusts of 40-60
mph are possible farther north into central Minnesota & western
Wisconsin.

Heat index values of 95-100 degrees are expected across eastern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Muggy conditions continue through the week, although max heat
index values should remain below 100 degrees.

Thunderstorm chances continue through most of the week. Severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter reports of wind & wind damage are requested this
morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
925 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ041-048-300330-
Douglas MN-Pope MN-
925 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DOUGLAS AND POPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 925 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms near Cyrus, or 12 miles east of Morris, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Cyrus, Gilchrist, Starbuck, Kensington, Lowry, Glenwood, Grove
  Lake, Holmes City, Villard, Forada, Alexandria, Brandon,
  Evansville, Garfield, Nelson, Carlos, Leaf Valley, Belle River and
  Miltona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4593 9576 4611 9577 4611 9515 4593 9515
      4593 9514 4559 9514 4559 9513 4541 9513
      4541 9575 4559 9575 4559 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 214DEG 47KT 4564 9568

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     Hail             Glenwood                45.65N 95.39W
06/29/2026  M1.00 Inch       Pope               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1003 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alexandria              45.89N 95.38W
06/29/2026                   Douglas            MN   Trained Spotter

            Reports of tree damage in Alexandria.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1008 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Hail             West Union              45.80N 95.08W
06/29/2026  M1.50 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1025 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ065-073>075-300415-
Renville MN-Redwood MN-Nicollet MN-Brown MN-
1025 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BROWN...NORTHWESTERN
NICOLLET...REDWOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walnut Grove, or 31 miles southwest of Redwood Falls, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Walnut Grove, Revere, Lamberton, Sanborn, Wanda, Wabasso,
  Springfield, Clements, Cobden, Redwood Falls, Morgan, Redwood Falls
  Airport, North Redwood, Evan, Sleepy Eye, Morton, Franklin, Fort
  Ridgely State Park, Essig and Fairfax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9559 4425 9559 4474 9483 4431 9452
      4418 9510 4420 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 231DEG 53KT 4418 9547

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

CTG