Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Twin Cities, MN

196 
WWUS53 KMPX 291657
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC097-153-291730-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-260629T1730Z/
Morrison MN-Todd MN-
1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRISON AND NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTIES...

At 1157 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 9
miles northeast of Motley to 8 miles west of Randall, or along a line
from 34 miles north of Little Falls to 17 miles northwest of Little
Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Motley around 1200 PM CDT.
  Randall around 1210 PM CDT.
  Camp Ripley around 1225 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4613 9482 4626 9481 4637 9483 4637 9473
      4635 9472 4635 9468 4636 9467 4633 9462
      4630 9454 4633 9443 4630 9439 4630 9435
      4627 9434 4623 9439 4621 9439 4618 9437
      4616 9437 4616 9427 4608 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 277DEG 27KT 4646 9472 4627 9479 4615 9481

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

703 
WWUS53 KMPX 291708
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC153-291718-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-260629T1730Z/
Todd MN-
1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN TODD
COUNTY...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for a
portion of central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4633 9462 4630 9454 4633 9443 4630 9439
      4630 9435 4628 9435 4627 9434 4623 9439
      4621 9439 4618 9437 4616 9437 4616 9427
      4608 9430 4611 9465 4635 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 278DEG 27KT 4644 9455 4625 9461 4613 9464

$$


MNC097-291730-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-260629T1730Z/
Morrison MN-
1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTY...

At 1208 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
13 miles northeast of Motley to over Randall, or along a line from 31
miles north of Little Falls to 12 miles northwest of Little Falls,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Randall around 1210 PM CDT.
  Camp Ripley around 1225 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by the severe thunderstorm include Cushing
and Crow Wing State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4633 9462 4630 9454 4633 9443 4630 9439
      4630 9435 4628 9435 4627 9434 4623 9439
      4621 9439 4618 9437 4616 9437 4616 9427
      4608 9430 4611 9465 4635 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 278DEG 27KT 4644 9455 4625 9461 4613 9464

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

322 
WWUS53 KMPX 291722
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC097-291732-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-260629T1730Z/
Morrison MN-
1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN MORRISON
COUNTY...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for a
portion of central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4633 9462 4630 9454 4633 9443 4630 9439
      4630 9435 4628 9435 4627 9434 4623 9439
      4621 9439 4618 9437 4616 9437 4616 9427
      4608 9430 4611 9465 4635 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 278DEG 27KT 4643 9442 4624 9448 4612 9451

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot & humid today. Heat Index values of 100-110 degrees
  this afternoon with little cooling relief overnight.

- Low chance of thunderstorms this evening, but, if
  thunderstorms are able to develop they could become severe
  with heavy rain.

- Hot & humid weather continues this week, although not nearly
  as intense as today. Continued low chances for thunderstorms
  as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Very hot & humid weather develops today as strong warm advection
continues over the Upper Midwest, in response to a deepening &
anomalously strong low over the Canadian Prairies. The ridging
aloft over the region peaks this afternoon with 700 mb
temperatures of 17C on the upper end of climatology for June &
July. There will be some stubborn low stratus to clear out this
morning across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin as rich
moisture gets trapped under the stout capping inversion, but
otherwise we should see plenty of sunshine today allowing for
temperatures to easily reach the low to mid 90s. The very muggy
dew points in the mid to upper 70s being advected in from Iowa
will limit any run at 100 degrees today, but this will only make
the heat index values worse as we are still expected to have
a "feels like" temperatures of 100-110 degrees for much of the
area this afternoon & evening.

The very hot & humid conditions will also create an explosively
unstable atmosphere with most-unstable CAPE values of 5000-6000
J/kg expected to develop this afternoon. To go along with the
extreme instability, seasonably strong wind shear values of
30-40 kts will be present across the region as the wind fields
strengthen in response to the deepening low to our north. This
is a high-ened environment for severe weather we'll have over
the region this afternoon, BUT, the very strong capping of 15+
degrees C at 700 mb *should* limit any storm develop the Dakotas
& northern Minnesota.

Things change a bit late this evening, as a surface cold front
moves eastwards through the area & our temperatures aloft begin
to decrease. Some of the larger-scale global models are more
robust at initiating a line of convection along the front late
this evening & overnight as our 700 mb temperatures cool to
more reasonable levels. Instability values will be slightly
lower than this afternoon, but still very unstable, so any
storms that would be able to initiate tonight could likely
become severe with damaging wind gusts & heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile high- resolution models are much more sparse with
initiation along the front tonight, potentially picking up on
some sort of subsidence response to the intense convection
expected off to our north. It'll be a classic conditional
summertime thunderstorm forecast:
probabilities are low (20-30%) that thunderstorms are able to
develop, but, the chance for severe weather & heavy rain is
high if they do. be sure to monitor forecast trends through this
afternoon & evening.

Tomorrow through the holiday weekend, we begin a stretch of
mostly similar days as the ridging aloft becomes entrenched
over the region. Hot & humid weather continues, although not
nearly as hot as today, with max heat index values of 90 to 100
degrees expected daily. Periodic chances for thunderstorms are
also present as a number of weak disturbances traverse
northwards around the ridge, and any of these thunderstorms
complexes could pose a threat for severe weather & heavy rain.
Models are widely scattered on resolving these impulses (as
expected) so precip probability forecasts are going to remain
very broad brushed, but we do look to have higher chances for
thunderstorms & heavy rain during the morning hours Tuesday &
Wednesday. These morning thunderstorm chances could also impact
our forecast temperatures as any day with morning precip & cloud
cover with have significantly cooler temperatures than
currently forecast. As for daily temperature trends, there is a
noticeable departure between the ECMWF & GFS suite of guidance,
with the ECMWF members trending much cooler midweek through the
weekend. ECMWF AI/ensemble/deterministic guidance suggests
we'll see temperatures more in the mid to upper 80s while the
GFS members still depict highs in the 90s most days. Excessive
heat conditions with heat indices of 100-105 still look likely
again tomorrow afternoon across the metro & western Wisconsin,
but the heat threat looks more uncertain beyond that.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Skies are BKN to OVC with CIGs at 1-3 kft leading to IFR and MVFR
conditions at some of the terminals, LIFR at AXN. Skies at MSP
are currently BKN at 1-2 kft leading to MVFR conditions. MKT and
RWF are FEW to SCT at 4-8 kft. Clouds should begin to lift and
break apart after 12-13z, with VFR conditions thereafter. Winds
generally light at 5-10 knots out of the S/SE. Winds will become
gusty out of the south with sustained winds around 20 knots and
gusts to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening. Chance for
-SHRA and -TSRA after 03z but confidence is low so no mention in
TAF.

KMSP...Instances of MVFR CIGs through 12-13z this morning. By mid-
morning timeframe, skies will continue to clear with VFR conditions
expected through the day. Winds generally light at 6-11 knots out of
the SE this morning, becoming gusty out of south at 15-20 knots
sustained with gusts to 25-30 knots. There is a chance for -SHRA
or -TSRA after 03z but confidence is low so no mention in 06z
TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight
     for Chippewa-Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     tonight for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-
     Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight
     for Rusk.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     tonight for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
300845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Very hot & humid today with heat index values of 100-110 degrees.
Little cooling relief is expected overnight.

Low chance for thunderstorms this evening, but any thunderstorms
that could potentially develop would likely be severe with heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot & humid conditions continue through the week. Heat index
values are expected to top out between 95-100 degrees daily.

Thunderstorm chances continue through most of the week. Severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening.