Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Twin Cities, MN

172 
WWUS53 KMPX 291611
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC041-153-291645-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-260629T1645Z/
Douglas MN-Todd MN-
1111 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN TODD AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 1111 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 7
miles north of Hewitt to near Carlos, or along a line from 39 miles
northeast of Alexandria to 10 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Eagle Bend, Bertha and Hewitt around 1115 AM CDT.
  Clarissa around 1120 AM CDT.
  Staples and Browerville around 1130 AM CDT.
  Long Prairie around 1135 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 9550 4611 9544 4611 9515 4628 9515
      4637 9516 4637 9473 4635 9472 4635 9468
      4636 9467 4635 9465 4619 9465 4598 9483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 270DEG 36KT 4643 9531 4625 9535 4601 9548

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

864 
WWUS53 KMPX 291627
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1127 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC041-291637-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-260629T1645Z/
Douglas MN-
1127 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for a
portion of west central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4628 9515 4632 9515 4635 9516 4637 9516
      4637 9473 4636 9473 4635 9472 4635 9468
      4636 9467 4635 9466 4635 9465 4619 9465
      4600 9481 4603 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 270DEG 36KT 4642 9504 4625 9508 4600 9522

$$


MNC153-291645-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-260629T1645Z/
Todd MN-
1127 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN TODD COUNTY...

At 1127 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 6
miles northwest of Staples to near Clarissa, or along a line from 39
miles northwest of Little Falls to 22 miles northeast of Alexandria,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Clarissa and Eagle Bend around 1130 AM CDT.
  Staples around 1135 AM CDT.
  Browerville around 1140 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4628 9515 4632 9515 4635 9516 4637 9516
      4637 9473 4636 9473 4635 9472 4635 9468
      4636 9467 4635 9466 4635 9465 4619 9465
      4600 9481 4603 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 265DEG 29KT 4643 9504 4625 9509 4608 9520

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

717 
WWUS53 KMPX 291633
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC153-291645-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-260629T1645Z/
Todd MN-
1133 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN TODD COUNTY...

At 1133 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from
near Staples to near Clarissa, or along a line from 37 miles
northwest of Little Falls to 23 miles northeast of Alexandria, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Staples and Clarissa around 1135 AM CDT.
  Browerville around 1140 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4628 9515 4632 9515 4635 9516 4637 9516
      4637 9473 4636 9473 4635 9472 4635 9468
      4636 9467 4635 9466 4635 9465 4619 9465
      4600 9481 4603 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 273DEG 26KT 4642 9486 4625 9491 4608 9502

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

990 
WWUS53 KMPX 291644
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1144 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNC153-291654-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-260629T1645Z/
Todd MN-
1144 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN TODD COUNTY...

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning that was previously in effect has
been reissued for Todd County and is in effect until 1230 PM CDT.
Please refer to that bulletin for the latest severe weather
information.

&&

LAT...LON 4628 9515 4632 9515 4635 9516 4637 9516
      4637 9473 4636 9473 4635 9472 4635 9468
      4636 9467 4635 9466 4635 9465 4619 9465
      4600 9481 4603 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 273DEG 26KT 4642 9480 4624 9484 4608 9495

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot & humid today. Heat Index values of 100-110 degrees
  this afternoon with little cooling relief overnight.

- Low chance of thunderstorms this evening, but, if
  thunderstorms are able to develop they could become severe
  with heavy rain.

- Hot & humid weather continues this week, although not nearly
  as intense as today. Continued low chances for thunderstorms
  as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Very hot & humid weather develops today as strong warm advection
continues over the Upper Midwest, in response to a deepening &
anomalously strong low over the Canadian Prairies. The ridging
aloft over the region peaks this afternoon with 700 mb
temperatures of 17C on the upper end of climatology for June &
July. There will be some stubborn low stratus to clear out this
morning across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin as rich
moisture gets trapped under the stout capping inversion, but
otherwise we should see plenty of sunshine today allowing for
temperatures to easily reach the low to mid 90s. The very muggy
dew points in the mid to upper 70s being advected in from Iowa
will limit any run at 100 degrees today, but this will only make
the heat index values worse as we are still expected to have
a "feels like" temperatures of 100-110 degrees for much of the
area this afternoon & evening.

The very hot & humid conditions will also create an explosively
unstable atmosphere with most-unstable CAPE values of 5000-6000
J/kg expected to develop this afternoon. To go along with the
extreme instability, seasonably strong wind shear values of
30-40 kts will be present across the region as the wind fields
strengthen in response to the deepening low to our north. This
is a high-ened environment for severe weather we'll have over
the region this afternoon, BUT, the very strong capping of 15+
degrees C at 700 mb *should* limit any storm develop the Dakotas
& northern Minnesota.

Things change a bit late this evening, as a surface cold front
moves eastwards through the area & our temperatures aloft begin
to decrease. Some of the larger-scale global models are more
robust at initiating a line of convection along the front late
this evening & overnight as our 700 mb temperatures cool to
more reasonable levels. Instability values will be slightly
lower than this afternoon, but still very unstable, so any
storms that would be able to initiate tonight could likely
become severe with damaging wind gusts & heavy rainfall.
Meanwhile high- resolution models are much more sparse with
initiation along the front tonight, potentially picking up on
some sort of subsidence response to the intense convection
expected off to our north. It'll be a classic conditional
summertime thunderstorm forecast:
probabilities are low (20-30%) that thunderstorms are able to
develop, but, the chance for severe weather & heavy rain is
high if they do. be sure to monitor forecast trends through this
afternoon & evening.

Tomorrow through the holiday weekend, we begin a stretch of
mostly similar days as the ridging aloft becomes entrenched
over the region. Hot & humid weather continues, although not
nearly as hot as today, with max heat index values of 90 to 100
degrees expected daily. Periodic chances for thunderstorms are
also present as a number of weak disturbances traverse
northwards around the ridge, and any of these thunderstorms
complexes could pose a threat for severe weather & heavy rain.
Models are widely scattered on resolving these impulses (as
expected) so precip probability forecasts are going to remain
very broad brushed, but we do look to have higher chances for
thunderstorms & heavy rain during the morning hours Tuesday &
Wednesday. These morning thunderstorm chances could also impact
our forecast temperatures as any day with morning precip & cloud
cover with have significantly cooler temperatures than
currently forecast. As for daily temperature trends, there is a
noticeable departure between the ECMWF & GFS suite of guidance,
with the ECMWF members trending much cooler midweek through the
weekend. ECMWF AI/ensemble/deterministic guidance suggests
we'll see temperatures more in the mid to upper 80s while the
GFS members still depict highs in the 90s most days. Excessive
heat conditions with heat indices of 100-105 still look likely
again tomorrow afternoon across the metro & western Wisconsin,
but the heat threat looks more uncertain beyond that.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Skies are BKN to OVC with CIGs at 1-3 kft leading to IFR and MVFR
conditions at some of the terminals, LIFR at AXN. Skies at MSP
are currently BKN at 1-2 kft leading to MVFR conditions. MKT and
RWF are FEW to SCT at 4-8 kft. Clouds should begin to lift and
break apart after 12-13z, with VFR conditions thereafter. Winds
generally light at 5-10 knots out of the S/SE. Winds will become
gusty out of the south with sustained winds around 20 knots and
gusts to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening. Chance for
-SHRA and -TSRA after 03z but confidence is low so no mention in
TAF.

KMSP...Instances of MVFR CIGs through 12-13z this morning. By mid-
morning timeframe, skies will continue to clear with VFR conditions
expected through the day. Winds generally light at 6-11 knots out of
the SE this morning, becoming gusty out of south at 15-20 knots
sustained with gusts to 25-30 knots. There is a chance for -SHRA
or -TSRA after 03z but confidence is low so no mention in 06z
TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight
     for Chippewa-Douglas-Lac Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     tonight for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-
     Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Heat Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight
     for Rusk.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CDT
     tonight for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
300845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
338 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Very hot & humid today with heat index values of 100-110 degrees.
Little cooling relief is expected overnight.

Low chance for thunderstorms this evening, but any thunderstorms
that could potentially develop would likely be severe with heavy
rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot & humid conditions continue through the week. Heat index
values are expected to top out between 95-100 degrees daily.

Thunderstorm chances continue through most of the week. Severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this evening.