Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

  - Heat Advisory today for the entire area for Heat Index values up
    to 110.

  - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Thursday for southeast
    Mississippi, with Heat Indices rising to near 110. Hot and
    humid conditions continue through the remainder of the week.

  - Rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
    again on Wednesday. A strong or severe storm is possible during
    the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Through Friday...an upper level high centered over Ky/Tenn will
slowly meander west, ending up over the DelMarVa Peninsula by Friday
evening. This shifting of the upper high will help to direct
shortwave energy west over the northern Gulf coast through the rest
of the week. Through Wednesday, a band of very moist air
(precipitable h20 values in the 2.0"-2.3") moves over the forecast
into Wednesday. In combination with passing shortwave energy,
scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected.
MLCapes rising to around 3000J/k and DCapes in the 700-1100J/kg
range this afternoon see a drop overnight, then shift to areas
generally west of I-65 Wednesday. Daytime, wind shear is limited,
with 0-1km helicities < 50m^2/s^s, and Bulk Shear values <20kts. All
in all, this points to pulse type severe storms this afternoon into
the evening and again Wednesday. Tonight, more low level instability
and helicities are hinting at an increased possibility of
waterspouts along and south of the coast, mainly after midnight and
going into Wednesday morning. Heat Indices well above advisory
levels today (>108F) will again happen Wednesday, mainly over
southeast Mississippi. Have issued a Heat Advisory for our
Mississippi counties for Wednesday, in addition to the one currently
in effect for this afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper
90s today see a drop into the low to mid 90s Wednesday. Low
temperatures in the mid 70s over most of the forecast area (upper
70s along the coast) are expected tonight and Wednesday night.

Wednesday night through Friday, a drier airmass (precipitable h20
values of 1.5-1.7") moves west over the northern Gulf coast. Rain
chances decrease in response, with the upper high maintaining enough
influence to limit rain chances as moisture levels decrease. The
upper high will keep temperatures above seasonal norms, with high
temperatures generally in the mid 90s, low 90s along the coast. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are
expected Thursday and Friday night. Heat indices are again expected
to rise above 100 over most of the forecast area.

Saturday through Tuesday...A mean upper trough that has developed
over the Plains works its way east, to over the Mississippi River,
maybe a bit further east. Guidance has been inconsistent with this
placement. Reason is the upper high weakening and shifting south or
southeast, then beginning to build west over the Southeast, limiting
the effects of the upper trough to convection over the forecast
area. The current forecast is based upon the upper trough working
its way over western portions of the Southeast. The latest guidance
is keeping the upper trough further west. With the inconsistency in
the guidance, have less confidence this portion of the forecast.
Guidance has been consistent in Heat Indices rising above 100 each
day into the coming week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, onshore flow
remains modest at best, helping to limit more organized onshore
swell on the coast. The tidal cycle also decreases, helping to keep
risk of Rip Currents Low through the forecast.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon will see drops to low/mid afternoon
MVFR levels as convection develops. Initial initiation is expected
to be along the coast, though with general deep layer flow towards
the coast, movement of storms is expected to be southerly and
outflow driven with development inland. Tonight, convection is
expected to shift to along and south of the coast, with MVFR
conditions prevalent, especially after 06z/1am and going into the
morning hours. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to again
develop inland in the late morning into the afternoon hours.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A light offshore flow today will briefly become a light to
occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow tonight into
Wednesday. A light diurnal pattern returns for late week, with
onshore flow expected during the afternoon hours, and offshore flow
expected at night.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      98  75  94  75 /  30  30  30   0
Pensacola   97  78  93  79 /  70  30  20   0
Destin      95  79  93  79 /  70  40  10   0
Evergreen   96  74  94  73 /  50  30  20  10
Waynesboro  98  76  96  75 /  10  20  30  10
Camden      94  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
Crestview   97  75  95  74 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
519 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

ALZ262-264-266-FLZ201-302300-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-
Escambia Inland FL-
519 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BALDWIN AND WEST CENTRAL
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles west of Molino to 9 miles north of
Elberta. Movement was west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fairhope, Robertsdale, Point Clear, Loxley, Stapleton, Summerdale,
and Silverhill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 8781 3045 8795 3046 8750 3076 8740
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 098DEG 14KT 3070 8750 3054 8755

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

FLZ205-206-302315-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
526 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Eglin Air Force Base to 7
miles southwest of Santa Rosa Beach. Movement was west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso,
Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Shalimar, and Cinco Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3039 8629 3040 8630 3042 8631 3038 8633
      3040 8639 3034 8640 3035 8675 3065 8673
      3060 8639 3046 8639 3046 8635 3048 8633
      3047 8630 3048 8628 3040 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 091DEG 13KT 3051 8627 3028 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
536 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

FLZ201-203-302315-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
536 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 536 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jay, or 7 miles southeast of Century, moving west at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Century, Molino, and Jay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8745 3070 8747 3072 8749 3091 8757
      3100 8722 3100 8708 3082 8699 3068 8741
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 068DEG 20KT 3091 8715

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
555 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

ALZ261>266-302345-
Mobile Coastal AL-Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-
555 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MOBILE AND SOUTHWESTERN
BALDWIN COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...

At 555 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front extending
along a line from 4 miles northeast of Stapleton to 4 miles
southeast of Daphne to 5 miles southwest of Silverhill. Movement was
west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Downtown Mobile, Prichard, Daphne, Tillmans Corner,
Fairhope, Saraland, Bay Minette, Theodore, Chickasaw, Satsuma,
Spanish Fort, Creola, Point Clear, Loxley, Magnolia Springs,
Stapleton, Axis, I65 And I165, and I65 And AL 158.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 8815 3060 8819 3096 8805 3086 8765
      3056 8776 3040 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 095DEG 14KT 3080 8775 3057 8783 3048 8782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
619 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

ALZ262-264-FLZ201-010000-
Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-Escambia Inland FL-
619 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BALDWIN AND NORTHWESTERN
ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 619 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Bratt, or 9 miles south of Atmore, moving west at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bay Minette, Stockton, I65 And AL 225, and Bratt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8739 3079 8738 3074 8785 3101 8786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 088DEG 19KT 3089 8748

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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