Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

  - Heat Advisory today for the entire area for Heat Index values up
    to 110.

  - A Heat Advisory is in effect for Thursday for southeast
    Mississippi, with Heat Indices rising to near 110. Hot and
    humid conditions continue through the remainder of the week.

  - Rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
    again on Wednesday. A strong or severe storm is possible during
    the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Through Friday...an upper level high centered over Ky/Tenn will
slowly meander west, ending up over the DelMarVa Peninsula by Friday
evening. This shifting of the upper high will help to direct
shortwave energy west over the northern Gulf coast through the rest
of the week. Through Wednesday, a band of very moist air
(precipitable h20 values in the 2.0"-2.3") moves over the forecast
into Wednesday. In combination with passing shortwave energy,
scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms are expected.
MLCapes rising to around 3000J/k and DCapes in the 700-1100J/kg
range this afternoon see a drop overnight, then shift to areas
generally west of I-65 Wednesday. Daytime, wind shear is limited,
with 0-1km helicities < 50m^2/s^s, and Bulk Shear values <20kts. All
in all, this points to pulse type severe storms this afternoon into
the evening and again Wednesday. Tonight, more low level instability
and helicities are hinting at an increased possibility of
waterspouts along and south of the coast, mainly after midnight and
going into Wednesday morning. Heat Indices well above advisory
levels today (>108F) will again happen Wednesday, mainly over
southeast Mississippi. Have issued a Heat Advisory for our
Mississippi counties for Wednesday, in addition to the one currently
in effect for this afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper
90s today see a drop into the low to mid 90s Wednesday. Low
temperatures in the mid 70s over most of the forecast area (upper
70s along the coast) are expected tonight and Wednesday night.

Wednesday night through Friday, a drier airmass (precipitable h20
values of 1.5-1.7") moves west over the northern Gulf coast. Rain
chances decrease in response, with the upper high maintaining enough
influence to limit rain chances as moisture levels decrease. The
upper high will keep temperatures above seasonal norms, with high
temperatures generally in the mid 90s, low 90s along the coast. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are
expected Thursday and Friday night. Heat indices are again expected
to rise above 100 over most of the forecast area.

Saturday through Tuesday...A mean upper trough that has developed
over the Plains works its way east, to over the Mississippi River,
maybe a bit further east. Guidance has been inconsistent with this
placement. Reason is the upper high weakening and shifting south or
southeast, then beginning to build west over the Southeast, limiting
the effects of the upper trough to convection over the forecast
area. The current forecast is based upon the upper trough working
its way over western portions of the Southeast. The latest guidance
is keeping the upper trough further west. With the inconsistency in
the guidance, have less confidence this portion of the forecast.
Guidance has been consistent in Heat Indices rising above 100 each
day into the coming week.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, onshore flow
remains modest at best, helping to limit more organized onshore
swell on the coast. The tidal cycle also decreases, helping to keep
risk of Rip Currents Low through the forecast.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon will see drops to low/mid afternoon
MVFR levels as convection develops. Initial initiation is expected
to be along the coast, though with general deep layer flow towards
the coast, movement of storms is expected to be southerly and
outflow driven with development inland. Tonight, convection is
expected to shift to along and south of the coast, with MVFR
conditions prevalent, especially after 06z/1am and going into the
morning hours. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to again
develop inland in the late morning into the afternoon hours.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A light offshore flow today will briefly become a light to
occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow tonight into
Wednesday. A light diurnal pattern returns for late week, with
onshore flow expected during the afternoon hours, and offshore flow
expected at night.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      98  75  94  75 /  30  30  30   0
Pensacola   97  78  93  79 /  70  30  20   0
Destin      95  79  93  79 /  70  40  10   0
Evergreen   96  74  94  73 /  50  30  20  10
Waynesboro  98  76  96  75 /  10  20  30  10
Camden      94  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  10
Crestview   97  75  95  74 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
242 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

FLZ202-204-302030-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Escambia Coastal FL-
242 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA AND
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Navarre, or 13 miles east of Gulf Breeze, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Oriole Beach, Navarre, Navarre Beach, and
Pensacola Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8726 3048 8695 3046 8687 3045 8686
      3032 8684 3022 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 081DEG 12KT 3040 8695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH