Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Mobile, AL

201 
WWUS54 KMOB 221405
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
905 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALC023-129-221430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-260522T1430Z/
Choctaw AL-Washington AL-
905 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 905 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Millry, or 16 miles north of Chatom, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Millry and Silas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8832 3165 8844 3185 8832 3176 8815
      3175 8814 3175 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 1405Z 217DEG 26KT 3169 8832 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

 - High rain chances will be in place through the weekend and into
   early next week, especially over the western half of the
   forecast area.

 - A conditional severe threat may exist this morning. A brief
   tornado or two and damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Overall forecast remains on track. An occasional mini spinny
supercell has managed to organize out of a cluster of
thunderstorms across Baldwin into Monroe counties this morning.
Gusty winds and heavy rainfall remain the primary threats with
storms, but the most robust updrafts next few hours could support
a threat for damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado. Anticipation is
for activity to temporarily wane into sunrise before the next
round of forcing moves in to refire strong to potentially severe
storms through the mid to late morning hours. Deep layer shear
weakens with time, going from the 30 to 40 knots we see now to
about 20 to 25 knots by mid morning. Conversely, low level winds
ramp up into the morning with 850mb flow increasing to around 30
knots or so. This will likely transition us from the mini spinny
environment we currently see to more of a multicell and transient
supercell/mini-spinny environment by mid morning.

The other threat would be from heavy rainfall as storms train
over the same areas in southeast Mississippi into southwest
Alabama. PMM total rainfall from the HREF ensemble suggests a
corridor of 3 to 6 inches of rain is possible through late
morning, particularly over far southeastern Mississippi into far
southwestern Alabama. Some of this has already been realized from
the initial cluster of strong storms which left a stretch of
upwards of 6 inches of rain from far northeastern Mobile County
into northern Baldwin County. If a corridor of heavy rainfall like
that sets up over more urbanized areas it could cause some flash
flooding problems. MM/25

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Through Sunday...a series of upper level shortwave troughs move
northeast along the west side of an upper ridge stretching north
along the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface ridge stretches west over the
East Coast due to the upper ridge, whilst the passing shortwave
energy maintains a semi-stationary surface front running from
southern Tx to the Tenn River Valley. A soupy airmass (precipitable
h20 values of 1.8"-2.0") that has moved over the Southeast south of
the surface front is maintained through the weekend. With the added
upper level instability, rain chances remain high through the period.

There is concern that strong to severe storms will develop later
tonight into Friday morning as a strong series of shortwaves pass
northwest of the forecast area. MLCapes vary in the guidance
(between 1500-2500J/kg) with 0-1km helicities in the 80-120 m^2/s^2.
Add in a modest 30-35kt 850mb jet passing northwest of the forecast
area working with any left over boundaries left over from Thursday's
activity, wind damage from any spinners along with brief tornadoes
are possible, with timing beginning near sunrise Friday. Also, with
the soupy airmass allowing for efficient rainers, water issues are
possible, especially if any favorable boundaries are generated.
Daily thunderstorms continue through the weekend, especially along
and northwest of I-65, but any decent upper support from the passing
shortwave energy is missing until Sunday, when several rounds of
shortwave energy organize into a closed upper low over Tx.

The above seasonal rain chances will create a below seasonal to
around/above gradient in high temperatures through the weekend. Low
to mid 80s Friday see an uptick to mid to upper 80s Saturday and
Sunday, with the lower temperatures being north of Highway 84
Saturday and northwest of I-65 Sunday. With the high moisture levels
and overnight cloud cover limiting overnight cooling, low
temperatures are expected to be above seasonal norms, with upper 60s
to mid 70s expected.

Monday through Thursday...the struggle between the upper low over Tx
and upper high off the East coast continues, with better rain
chances over the northwestern half of the forecast area, closer to
the upper energy. High temperatures remain around or below seasonal
norms over most of the forecast area through the period, with low
temperatures a bit above seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow varies in strength, with onshore swell varying in
response. The tidal cycle slowly decreases into the coming week, but
the Rip Risk remains moderate to at times high through most of the
week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain prevalent across the region. Scattered
showers and storms have temporarily waned, but will increase to
scattered to numerous for most of the area as we head into the mid
morning and the afternoon hours. Expect reductions in ceiling and
visibility under any storms. Winds remain out of the south to
southeast at 5 to 10 knots, gusting around 15 knots this
afternoon. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this
weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3
feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25 /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  73  86  72 / 100  60  70  20
Pensacola   82  75  85  74 /  90  50  60  20
Destin      83  74  84  74 /  60  50  60  20
Evergreen   82  71  85  70 /  90  60  90  20
Waynesboro  82  70  85  69 / 100  70  70  50
Camden      80  69  84  68 / 100  60  90  30
Crestview   84  71  87  70 /  80  60  80  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ055-056-220945-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-
358 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MONROE AND WEST
CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM CDT...

At 358 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Frisco City, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monroeville, Frisco City, Uriah, Excel, and Repton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3130 8750 3140 8761 3164 8734 3143 8713
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 230DEG 16KT 3140 8746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
841 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ052-MSZ067-221415-
Washington AL-Wayne MS-
841 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EAST
CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

At 840 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Buckatunna, or 12 miles northwest of Chatom, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Millry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 8821 3149 8844 3155 8853 3170 8844
      3170 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 217DEG 23KT 3155 8844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD