Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1016 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

 - A conditional severe threat continues this morning. A brief
   tornado or two and damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out.

 - High rain chances will be in place through the weekend and
   into early next week, especially over the western half of the
   forecast area. Locally heavy rain possible.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

22.12Z upper air maps show a more active southwest flow at higher
levels atop the area. A complex, broad upper trof is positioned
over the Plains. Embedded in a short-wave mid/upper level negative
oriented trof, a lead impulse is ejecting north northeast and has
been responsible for an active early portion of the shift with
isolated severe storms over the northwest zones exhibiting
rotation necessitating the issuance of a few tornado warnings.
These storms formed within overlap of sufficient
instability/shear/and 0-1 km storm relative helicity values ~150
m2/s2 atop a weakly defined surface trof draped over southern MS.
The low level speed max ejects northeast and out of the area which
should lower the severe weather potential the remainder of the
day. A few storms could still overachieve which could maintain a
conditional, mainly isolated severe weather threat. Storms will
also be capable of locally heavy rains and the potential for
isolated flooding, especially in lower lying areas subject to poor
drainage where storms move repeatedly over the same areas. /10

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Through Sunday...a series of upper level shortwave troughs move
northeast along the west side of an upper ridge stretching north
along the Atlantic Seaboard. A surface ridge stretches west over the
East Coast due to the upper ridge, whilst the passing shortwave
energy maintains a semi-stationary surface front running from
southern Tx to the Tenn River Valley. A soupy airmass (precipitable
h20 values of 1.8"-2.0") that has moved over the Southeast south of
the surface front is maintained through the weekend. With the added
upper level instability, rain chances remain high through the period.

There is concern that strong to severe storms will develop later
tonight into Friday morning as a strong series of shortwaves pass
northwest of the forecast area. MLCapes vary in the guidance
(between 1500-2500J/kg) with 0-1km helicities in the 80-120 m^2/s^2.
Add in a modest 30-35kt 850mb jet passing northwest of the forecast
area working with any left over boundaries left over from Thursday's
activity, wind damage from any spinners along with brief tornadoes
are possible, with timing beginning near sunrise Friday. Also, with
the soupy airmass allowing for efficient rainers, water issues are
possible, especially if any favorable boundaries are generated.
Daily thunderstorms continue through the weekend, especially along
and northwest of I-65, but any decent upper support from the passing
shortwave energy is missing until Sunday, when several rounds of
shortwave energy organize into a closed upper low over Tx.

The above seasonal rain chances will create a below seasonal to
around/above gradient in high temperatures through the weekend. Low
to mid 80s Friday see an uptick to mid to upper 80s Saturday and
Sunday, with the lower temperatures being north of Highway 84
Saturday and northwest of I-65 Sunday. With the high moisture levels
and overnight cloud cover limiting overnight cooling, low
temperatures are expected to be above seasonal norms, with upper 60s
to mid 70s expected.

Monday through Thursday...the struggle between the upper low over Tx
and upper high off the East coast continues, with better rain
chances over the northwestern half of the forecast area, closer to
the upper energy. High temperatures remain around or below seasonal
norms over most of the forecast area through the period, with low
temperatures a bit above seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow varies in strength, with onshore swell varying in
response. The tidal cycle slowly decreases into the coming week, but
the Rip Risk remains moderate to at times high through most of the
week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings remain prevalent across the region. Scattered
showers and storms have temporarily waned, but will increase to
scattered to numerous for most of the area as we head into the mid
morning and the afternoon hours. Expect reductions in ceiling and
visibility under any storms. Winds remain out of the south to
southeast at 5 to 10 knots, gusting around 15 knots this
afternoon. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly flow will prevail through this
weekend and into early next week. Seas will generally be 1 to 3
feet. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and
seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25 /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  72  86  71 /  90  50  70  20
Pensacola   82  74  84  73 /  80  40  50  20
Destin      83  74  83  73 /  70  60  60  20
Evergreen   82  70  85  69 /  90  40  90  20
Waynesboro  82  69  85  68 /  90  50  70  50
Camden      80  69  84  68 / 100  50  80  40
Crestview   84  70  87  70 /  80  50  80  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
841 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ052-MSZ067-221415-
Washington AL-Wayne MS-
841 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND EAST
CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

At 840 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Buckatunna, or 12 miles northwest of Chatom, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Millry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 8821 3149 8844 3155 8853 3170 8844
      3170 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 217DEG 23KT 3155 8844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
927 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

ALZ051-053-221515-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-
927 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CHOCTAW AND
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM CDT...

At 927 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Coffeeville, or 20 miles south of Butler, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Choctaw and northwestern Clarke Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3202 8812 3201 8811 3199 8810 3200 8809
      3201 8809 3199 8807 3199 8791 3174 8821
      3178 8830 3203 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 217DEG 22KT 3179 8820

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RD