Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
237 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

 - Strong storms are possible this afternoon with gusty downburst
   winds being the main threat.

 - Moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday and Wednesday for
   coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Peak heat index increases to around 105-107 this afternoon with
   the Heat Risk remaining in the Moderate to Major category.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Storms are finally beginning to develop inland as of 19Z after
convection lingered along the coastline throughout the morning
hours. This afternoon will have another round of scattered storms
dropping in from the north featuring ample instability, minimal/non-
existent shear, and ample dry air aloft. Some strong storms are
possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours with the
predominant threat being gusty downburst winds given the dry air
aloft noted in the soundings. Convection should steadily wane
after sunset, although a few storms may linger into the late
evening hours.

As we head into the overnight hours and tomorrow, the ridge aloft
nudges deeper into the Southeast. This pattern shift will allow our
dry-ish northerly flow aloft to turn easterly through mid-week.
Flow aloft turns onshore on Thursday as the ridge gets flattened
by a trough pivoting into the East Coast. Meanwhile, a parade of
subtle shortwaves pivot across the region throughout the week in
this pattern, which will lead to a somewhat higher coverage in
showers and storms each afternoon in the middle to latter half of
the week. This slightly more active diurnal convective pattern
will keep daytime highs in check with no extreme heat concerns
through the remainder of the week.

Beach Forecast - LOW rip current risk continues through tonight
before increasing to a MODERATE risk tomorrow through Wednesday for
coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The risk falls to LOW
for the remainder of the week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast outside of
scattered afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA activity inland areas.
Gusty winds and LIFR/IFR visibilities will accompany some of the
stronger storms. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Waterspouts are possible in the morning hours over the next
several days. No other significant impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  91  74  88 /  50  20  20  60
Pensacola   77  88  77  88 /  30  10  20  60
Destin      77  88  77  89 /  30  20  30  60
Evergreen   72  93  72  93 /  30  10  10  40
Waynesboro  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  10  30
Camden      73  93  73  93 /  30  10   0  20
Crestview   72  90  72  91 /  20  10  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&