Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with a Heat Advisory in
  effect for all locations Thursday and Friday as afternoon heat
  indices rise into the 108 to 112 range.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of
  producing brief intense rainfall, resulting in localized
  flooding and locally strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting off with late this morning, offshore convection
continues, fueled by ample marine instability and the remnant
landbreeze boundary. Will keep an eye on weak/subtle backbuilding
and NW propagation per recent upwind corfidi vectors from the SE,
but should remain weak enough and locked over outer waters before
dissipating. Otherwise, we'll heat on up over land areas again
today enough to reach convective T. Looks like it'll be another
similar day to yesterday with earliest convection igniting from
greatest onset forcing caused by either subtle confluence bands or
seabreeze interactions. Any boundary interactions will quickly
allow updrafts to accelerate, and with notable dry air entrainment
(DCAPE >1000j/kg), severe downburst winds will yet again be
another risk. Best timing from 2PM-7PM this afternoon. Otherwise,
no modifications needed to temperatures as guidance/trends remains
on track, with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect.

Friday and going into the weekend, we remain in general mid-level
weakness on the eastern periphery of an anonymously strong ridge
over the four corners region, with broad troughing centered over
the Ohio/TN valley. Could distinctly see a rinse- repeat of
today/yesterday again for Friday introducing another round of
strong to locally severe storms in the afternoon hours.
Additionally, went with another Heat Advisory for all areas as
heat indices reach 108-111, moreso along the I-10 corridor. Then,
going into the weekend, the aforementioned broad trough sharpens
into the mid/southern Atlantic states, helping to push (slightly)
drier air aloft into the region. Could see just enough suppression
to offset peak heating, diurnally forced convection, or at least
enough to lower coverage overall. NBM PoPs are coming into
agreement on that idea reducing coverage down to 10-20% in areas.
Still, areas of greatest forcing, enough to offset this
suppression (moreso caused by seabreeze/boundary confluence) could
get a few isolated storms going.

With this slightly drier air, it's likely we'll be introduced
with lower dewpoints, perhaps reaching the low to mid 60's for
interior AL counties which will reduce the need for heat
advisories. However, will watch the coast where it could remain
close enough, especially near/south of the I-10 corridor.

Monday into next week, focus will be on what long-range guidance
is hinting with shortwave impulses riding around the ridge from
the north-central Plains into the TN valley, and how any
sfc/mesoscale reflection could be in the form of either a NW to SE
MCS, and how far/expansive these (possible several) complexes
could become if they could clip our area. Something to watch,
otherwise it remains pretty typical for summer next week with
highs in the mid 90's and max heat indices in the 103-108 range
thanks to slightly drier air at the sfc. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Showers and thunderstorms
return to the area this afternoon into the early evening. These
storms are accompanied by gusty winds and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR
and even locally IFR within the strongest storms. Winds are
generally light and variable inland and become southerly to
southwesterly at 5-10 knots with periodic gusts up to 15 knots as
the afternoon seabreeze advances inland. These winds wane after
sunset and become generally northwesterly after sunrise. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A light to occasionally moderate mostly westerly flow pattern will
persists late this week into next week. Winds are expected to shift
northwesterly late each night and then southwesterly in the
afternoon. Isolated to potentially scattered showers and storms can
be expected each morning with locally higher seas and winds near
storms. KLG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  95  74  95 /  10  60  20  10
Pensacola   78  93  77  93 /  10  50  30  20
Destin      79  91  79  91 /  10  50  40  20
Evergreen   72  96  70  96 /  40  60  30  10
Waynesboro  73  98  70  98 /  20  50  20  10
Camden      73  95  72  95 /  30  40  30   0
Crestview   73  95  73  95 /  20  60  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
917 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Pace                    30.60N 87.16W
08/19/2026                   Santa Rosa         FL   Public

            Delayed Report: Public report of sporadic
            minor wind damage in/near the city of Pace
            from thunderstorms. Minor damage to sheds,
            and a few trees down. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

KLG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
132 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Turkey Branch      30.44N 87.86W
08/19/2026                   Baldwin            AL   Broadcast Media

            Delayed Report: Broadcast media and EM
            reported wind damage in Fairhope/Barnwell on
            CR 24 between CR 12 and SR 181. Damage
            included a tree down on a house, and
            uprooted, snapped trees from thunderstorm
            winds. Time estimated from radar.

&&

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
208 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLZ203-204-202000-
Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
208 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SANTA ROSA COUNTY
THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Roeville, or 7 miles east of Bagdad, moving west
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Bagdad, Point Baker, Pea Ridge, and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near water, get out and move indoors or inside a vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent
thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be
struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on
the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8682 3053 8683 3048 8691 3049 8709
      3063 8714 3075 8710 3074 8694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 088DEG 5KT 3061 8691

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KLG