Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for inland areas with a targeted
  Extreme Heat Warning for coastal zones Tuesday afternoon into
  the evening for heat indices of 105-115. Additional heat
  advisories will likely be needed through much of the week.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in
  Florida and Alabama through Wednesday.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may produce brief heavy
  rainfall and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

High pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern, with hot
and humid conditions persisting through the end of the week. Current
temps are already approaching 90 degrees, and with ample time for
heating, expect highs to top out in the upper 90s to even triple
digits in some areas. While our air temps are high, we should have
enough mixing in the afternoon to drop dewpoints a couple of
degrees, keeping our heat indices in the 108 to 115 degree range,
which is still very dangerous. Similar conditions are expected on
Wednesday, though temps are expected to be a degree or two cooler as
ridging begins to break down. Based on heat indices climbing into
the 108 to 112 degree range, a heat advisory will be issued for
Wednesday as well. Otherwise, our attention turns to the potential
for thunderstorms and what their intensity will be.

Yesterday's activity was a bit more widespread than anticipated,
with several lingering outflows noted traversing the area.
Convective temps are in the lower 90s, so we'll likely begin to see
thunderstorms developing in the next hour or so. Not anticipating
organized severe storms, typical of summertime, but a few storms
will be capable of producing heavy rain and winds up to 60 mph. So I
would not be surprised if we have a couple of severe warnings this
afternoon. Activity should diminish around sunset as we lose our
daytime heating. Again, similar conditions are expected for
Wednesday, though coverage may be less.

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will really be a rinse
and repeat for much of the area. Highs will warm into the 90s, with
overnight lows falling into the 70s. Global models do feature a weak
low over the eastern Gulf, which may move west and bring a higher
certainty of rainfall by the weekend. However, there's little in the
way of agreement, so confidence is low. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period.
The exception will be during the afternoon hours, when
thunderstorms may impact the terminals. Based on the last couple
of days, have opted to include a tempo group for thunderstorms at
all terminals from 19Z to 22Z. Amendments may become necessary,
but timing is based on coverage previous days. Any activity  will
diminish around sunset. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern
persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  76  95 /  20  40  10  40
Pensacola   79  95  79  95 /  20  50  10  40
Destin      80  93  80  93 /  20  50  10  30
Evergreen   73  96  73  98 /  40  30  10  30
Waynesboro  74  98  74  99 /  30  50  20  20
Camden      73  96  74  97 /  50  20  10  20
Crestview   74  95  74  96 /  30  50  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261-262.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

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