Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for inland areas with a targeted
  Extreme Heat Warning for coastal zones Tuesday afternoon into
  the evening for heat indices of 105-115. Additional heat
  advisories will likely be needed through much of the week.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in
  Florida and Alabama through Wednesday.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms may produce brief heavy
  rainfall and gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

High pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern, with hot
and humid conditions persisting through the end of the week. Current
temps are already approaching 90 degrees, and with ample time for
heating, expect highs to top out in the upper 90s to even triple
digits in some areas. While our air temps are high, we should have
enough mixing in the afternoon to drop dewpoints a couple of
degrees, keeping our heat indices in the 108 to 115 degree range,
which is still very dangerous. Similar conditions are expected on
Wednesday, though temps are expected to be a degree or two cooler as
ridging begins to break down. Based on heat indices climbing into
the 108 to 112 degree range, a heat advisory will be issued for
Wednesday as well. Otherwise, our attention turns to the potential
for thunderstorms and what their intensity will be.

Yesterday's activity was a bit more widespread than anticipated,
with several lingering outflows noted traversing the area.
Convective temps are in the lower 90s, so we'll likely begin to see
thunderstorms developing in the next hour or so. Not anticipating
organized severe storms, typical of summertime, but a few storms
will be capable of producing heavy rain and winds up to 60 mph. So I
would not be surprised if we have a couple of severe warnings this
afternoon. Activity should diminish around sunset as we lose our
daytime heating. Again, similar conditions are expected for
Wednesday, though coverage may be less.

The end of the workweek and upcoming weekend will really be a rinse
and repeat for much of the area. Highs will warm into the 90s, with
overnight lows falling into the 70s. Global models do feature a weak
low over the eastern Gulf, which may move west and bring a higher
certainty of rainfall by the weekend. However, there's little in the
way of agreement, so confidence is low. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period.
The exception will be during the afternoon hours, when
thunderstorms may impact the terminals. Based on the last couple
of days, have opted to include a tempo group for thunderstorms at
all terminals from 19Z to 22Z. Amendments may become necessary,
but timing is based on coverage previous days. Any activity  will
diminish around sunset. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwest to westerly flow pattern
persists across the marine waters in the coming week. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. No impacts
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  76  95 /  20  40  10  40
Pensacola   79  95  79  95 /  20  50  10  40
Destin      80  93  80  93 /  20  50  10  30
Evergreen   73  96  73  98 /  40  30  10  30
Waynesboro  74  98  74  99 /  30  50  20  20
Camden      73  96  74  97 /  50  20  10  20
Crestview   74  95  74  96 /  30  50  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261-262.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201-203-205.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for FLZ201>206.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
451 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

FLZ203-205-182230-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
451 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OKALOOSA AND
NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Baker, or 18 miles northwest of Crestview, moving
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8665 3081 8691 3100 8688 3100 8685
      3099 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 000DEG 8KT 3095 8678

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
512 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

ALZ059-060-FLZ201-203-205-182300-
Covington AL-Escambia AL-Escambia Inland FL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
512 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...
SOUTHWESTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN OKALOOSA...NORTHERN SANTA ROSA AND
NORTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Riverview to 7 miles southwest of Laurel Hill.
Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Brewton, Century, Flomaton, Baker, East Brewton, Jay,
Laurel Hill, Pollard, and Riverview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3069 8639 3083 8731 3113 8724 3109 8638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 005DEG 7KT 3106 8706 3087 8652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

ALZ261-262-182300-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Inland AL-
520 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MOBILE AND
NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Vernon, or 15 miles north of Creola, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Creola, Stockton, Axis, Mount Vernon, Movico, and I65 And AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 8811 3112 8809 3115 8788 3114 8787
      3116 8776 3102 8762 3100 8761 3100 8760
      3098 8759 3096 8759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 343DEG 7KT 3111 8796

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

ALZ261-263-182315-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-
535 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MOBILE COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Gulfcrest, or 5 miles southeast of Citronelle,
moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Saraland, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Citronelle, Creola, Chunchula,
Gulfcrest, Axis, Mount Vernon, Semmes, Wilmer, I65 And AL 158, and
Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8841 3114 8832 3113 8799 3090 8796
      3087 8798 3086 8796 3082 8795 3082 8797
      3080 8796 3081 8798 3081 8799 3079 8799
      3080 8798 3079 8796 3077 8799 3077 8795
      3076 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 017DEG 12KT 3103 8818

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JP

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